2 Mile Chasers 20/21

Ah, Cuneo has joined Elliott. Cost me a few units last year.

In the PWC at the prices I'd go for Hardline. Don't trust Easy Game and a short price.
 
granger said:
I feel like I have forgotten all last years novices
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Nothing much to remember at least from the Arkle although Global Citizen ran well despite missing the start and being hampered at the last ditch by two fallers. He's 9 in Jan though which is a turn off.


Seniors:
Altior - too old
Chacun - top class but would never trust him until he's actually behind the starting tape.
Defi - I prefer him over further
A Plus Tard - probably better over further also but at Chelt prefer him on old course
Put the Kettle on - meh
Politologue- meh
Pretty uninspiring after that although Cilaos Emery could be an under the radar one


 
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Moscow retained as a senior so I don't see Altior as too old and he has less to beat

Chacun is made of tissue paper. i hope he is top class but still unproven to me

Defi needs Ryanair, APT has a big race in him but a lot needs to go right
 
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Altior or Chacun surely win it if lining up. Outside of them you end up with Put The Kettle On by default.

I'm unconvinced Cilaos Emery is good enough, and I think I read somewhere that he may stay over hurdles. Le Richebourg is back and if he retains his ability may be next best. Then you're looking at the Grand Annual winner Chosen Mate or something from left field.
 
Transition year for 2m chasers. Wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see a top-end novice thrown into the Champion Chase come March.
 
Politologue may have won a p1ss poor renewal after Defi bombed out and in the absence of Altior and CPS but he was also a close second to Altior in 2019, is top class on his day and trained by a master who seems to have finally sussed that he needs a strongly run 2 miles and goes better fresh. So the 20/1 available is an absolute insult considering he's doing nothing wrong since then, is being aimed at the race again, the front two in the market have either robustness or longevity doubts and we've had many repeat winners.

I'm not keen on e/w ante post betting but this race always cuts up and barring injury, he'll line up here so three places right now at that price does appeal.
 
wilsonl said:
Politologue may have won a p1ss poor renewal after Defi bombed out and in the absence of Altior and CPS but he was also a close second to Altior in 2019, is top class on his day and trained by a master who seems to have finally sussed that he needs a strongly run 2 miles and goes better fresh. So the 20/1 available is an absolute insult considering he's doing nothing wrong since then, is being aimed at the race again, the front two in the market have either robustness or longevity doubts and we've had many repeat winners.

I'm not keen on e/w ante post betting but this race always cuts up and barring injury, he'll line up here so three places right now at that price does appeal.
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I was almost embarrassed to tell anyone I’d backed him, but now you’ve broken cover am happy to admit (for virtually the same reason) he’s my only AP bet in the race!
 
Think these arguments for Poli are fair enough, but at rising 10yo, I’d have concerns on age grounds, and his ability to maintain his level of form.

Special Tiara apart, it usually takes an exceptional horse in double-digit years to win a QMCC (think Sacre, Moscow), and I’m not convinced (never have been really) that he’s a 2-miler - I reckon the race just fell his way last season, and would definitely have him in the vulnerable category.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Think these arguments for Poli are fair enough, but at rising 10yo, I’d have concerns on age grounds, and his ability to maintain his level of form.

Special Tiara apart, it usually takes an exceptional horse in double-digit years to win a QMCC (think Sacre, Moscow), and I’m not convinced (never have been really) that he’s a 2-miler - I reckon the race just fell his way last season, and would definitely have him in the vulnerable category.
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I don't think I would ever let the age of a horse put me off purely for that reason. I would even consider a 5yo in the Champion Hurdle if I felt it had the form to make it competitive. I've even backed 7yos in the Grand National despite their inglorious record.

Just taking Politologue as an example, what if he comes out fresh this season and hacks up in a top race from one or two of the usual 'contenders' and, say, puts up a career-best RPR/OR/Timeform rating (delete as applicable/inapplicable according to taste)? What if the form is then franked over and over by the beaten horses?

Wouldn't that suggest [the likes of a] Politologue might just be worthy of consideration as somewhere close to past older heroes?

Having said all that, I've just checked back through my review of the 2020 Champion Chase. This is it in its entirety:

Champion Chase - pile of shite.
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:lol:
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:lol:

Like I say, DO - I think the arguments are fair enough. Whilst age makes me hesitate this far out, I wouldn’t discount backing him on that stat alone, and I’d retain an open mind on the day, if he had demonstrably retained his form.
 
For me the only way I'd back Politologue is if the race cut up like it did last year, which I did as soon as I had wind of Chacun being out. I was fortunate to hear about it before it was in the public domain so managed to get out of him and on to Politologue before the price changes. As admirable as he Politologue got very lucky to win what ended up a really weak renewal. He basically had nothing to beat.

All of that said Chacun must be odds against to make it as usual, and we'll presumably get to see Altior and Politologue clash in the Tingle Creek, so we should get a line on how Altior's form is holding up. Even at his age he's the most sensible antepost bet in my eyes. He along with Put The Kettle On are just very good each way bets. I've got Chacun in a nice roll-up already and I'll back Le Richebourg when he gets an entry. So currently I have all four of those ahead of Politologue.

Ultimately I'll probably only have two darts left on the day and will lay off the others, either during the season, or in the immediate lead up, and as I say unless we lose everything like last year the best I'd expect from Politologue is a place, But if you have him ahead of the others mentioned 20/1 each way is fair enough. He'll be shorter on the day anyway and will offer a good trade if your that way inclined, so I'm not trying to talk anyone out of a bet, he's just not for me at the moment.
 
Couldn't have Le Richebourg, even before you factor in his monster absence. The 2m novice crop that year were truly woeful.
 
Grasshopper said:
Think these arguments for Poli are fair enough, but at rising 10yo, I’d have concerns on age grounds, and his ability to maintain his level of form.

Special Tiara apart, it usually takes an exceptional horse in double-digit years to win a QMCC (think Sacre, Moscow), and I’m not convinced (never have been really) that he’s a 2-miler - I reckon the race just fell his way last season, and would definitely have him in the vulnerable category.
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You are too young to remember Skymas winning 2 mile chase at 11 and 12 . not to mention Tingle Creek breaking his own course record in his final race at 12 with 12/7.
Happy days.
 
edgt said:
You are too young to remember Skymas winning 2 mile chase at 11 and 12 . not to mention Tingle Creek breaking his own course record in his final race at 12 with 12/7.
Happy days.
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Not young, but too young indeed, Eddie. :cool:
 
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