2 Mile Chasers 20/21

DDG hasn't won a race since his Arkle, which fell apart with all his main rivals not completing. Quite an underwhelming race looking back at it.
 
tiggers1972 said:
DDG hasn't won a race since his Arkle, which fell apart with all his main rivals not completing. Quite an underwhelming race looking back at it.
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... in which case all the more reason to diss today's form.

I went high with DDG's Arkle but maybe I was biased as I thought it was a bit of a good thing on the day but that was because I thought it was a below-par renewal. From my preview of that race:

This may well be a substandard renewal, at least compared with the last few. Since Western Warhorse, rated just 135, sprang a 33/1 shock in 2014, the winners since then have had ORs of 166 (Un De Sceaux), 161 (Douvan), 170 (Altior) and 162 (Footpad). Nothing in this field is anywhere near that ball-park. Duc Des Genievres, if my figure for him is correct, might just be a little bit of a good thing. I expect Lalor, representing the Dynamite Dollars form, to be a bigger danger than the favourite Glen Forsa who looks a very false price.

The highest OR on the day was Hardline's 153 but I had DDG 10lbs higher than that.
 
Seems a dodgy division at the top.
Altior imo too old
Chacun is a sick note waiting to happen
Defi I can't trust now
Put the Kettle On I'm not convinced quality wise
So that makes me interested in:
Notebook. Too many races last year? Looked quality prior to the Arkle. Will be fresher next March than last.
Cilaos Emery. Not great the other day but 2m might be his trip
Le Richbourg. What has happened with this one, is he even still in training.
 
I'd really like to see Altior get back to his best. The last I saw online he was due a racecourse gallop. I liked the way Putthekettleon dug deep today to get up. Surprised people are questioning the form already. PTKO beat what was there to beat today. That's all you can ask at this stage of the season I'd have thought.
 
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I’d much rather see Defi aiming for the Ryanair.

PTKO hated every bit of that today, and still got there. One of few horses tk come from a mile bsck the last couple of days. She was a bet before today’s race for QMCC but at 8s, she’s about her price now.

Same price as Altior? Jeez. Some value there somewhere.
 
Euronymous said:
Seems a dodgy division at the top.
Altior imo too old
Chacun is a sick note waiting to happen
Defi I can't trust now
Put the Kettle On I'm not convinced quality wise
So that makes me interested in:
Notebook. Too many races last year? Looked quality prior to the Arkle. Will be fresher next March than last.
Cilaos Emery. Not great the other day but 2m might be his trip
Le Richbourg. What has happened with this one, is he even still in training.
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Something happen the champion?
 
My assessment of the race is that PTKO hated the heavy ground and struggled to travel in it, whereas DDG loved every minute of it and galloped and jumped for fun. Despite the fact that she didn't get the lead she would have wanted and Coleman probably had her too far back, once he got her racing she had the class to pick him up when he wasn't stopping, and she absolutely devoured the hill.

People say she has it all to prove, but I'd argue she has less to prove than Altior and Chacun right now. Age and fitness are more of a concern than PTKO's ability that constantly keep getting underrated by those that weren't on her last March. Cheltenham is made for her, and she seems to have that perfect blend of speed, stamina, and jumping ability. And a very handy 7lb pull with the boys.

Anyone who hasn't got her onside at least each way for a Champion Chase that will at best have three serious contenders is in complete denial. It's time to let the Arkle go if you convinced yourself it was a poor one. It wasn't. The Champion Chase was though, and as I said the big two that were missing, Altior and Chacun, have more to prove than she does now.
 
Maruco said:
Anyone who hasn't got her onside at least each way for a Champion Chase that will at best have three serious contenders is in complete denial.
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I was all over her for the Arkle...waded in, even more after watching the pre-race interview with De Bromhead....But the one concern I have here is they may do a Honeysuckle, and be tempted to go for the new Mare's chase over 2m4f.
This has surely crossed your mind Paul?
 
Maxbet said:
I was all over her for the Arkle...waded in, even more after watching the pre-race interview with De Bromhead....But the one concern I have here is they may do a Honeysuckle, and be tempted to go for the new Mare's chase over 2m4f.
This has surely crossed your mind Paul?
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Surely taking on Benie and the considerably less prize money I’d imagine will be a put off.

The introduction of this Mares Chase is already pissing me off.
 
Euronymous said:
Seems a dodgy division at the top.
Altior imo too old
Chacun is a sick note waiting to happen
Defi I can't trust now
Put the Kettle On I'm not convinced quality wise
So that makes me interested in:
Notebook. Too many races last year? Looked quality prior to the Arkle. Will be fresher next March than last.
Cilaos Emery. Not great the other day but 2m might be his trip
Le Richbourg. What has happened with this one, is he even still in training.
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I have to agree with your assessment of the top of the market, I used the same logic/basis when looking at the race but have come to slightly different end results! Have backed both Rouge Vif and Grenateen, wide open race.
 
Maxbet said:
I was all over her for the Arkle...waded in, even more after watching the pre-race interview with De Bromhead....But the one concern I have here is they may do a Honeysuckle, and be tempted to go for the new Mare's chase over 2m4f.
This has surely crossed your mind Paul?
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I think there's next to no chance she goes for the Mares Chase Paul. It's the Champion Chase, and the owners will probably never get another shot at it. Proven over course and distance, specifically the old course in a division that's there for the taking. Absolutely in her prime, taking on Altior 2 years on from when he struggled to pick up Politologue and Sceau Royal, and possibly Chacun if he finally makes it there, who has had 4 races in 4 years, with a rating that looks as dodgy as hell in hindsight.

With her mares allowance she probably won't need to run to more than 160 to win the race, and I'm sure she has at least that in her locker. So even for someone who missed 20/1 and 16/1, 10/1 is still great value. How does she finish out of the places? Sure Altior is worth backing at 8/1 each way on value, as he'll half in price when he wins a really soft Tingle Creek, but I'd be shocked if he retains enough ability to win in March. The reality is he'll have to run better than he did 2 years ago, which as an 11 year old won't happen.
 
Altior low-mileage for his age, and his form hasn’t exactly taken any knocks, given the subsequent exploits of the likes of Pilotologue, Sceau Royal, Min and Cyrname.

I definitely wouldn’t be writing him off - even if he is in the veteran stage now. He is/was a class apart.
 
I can't get past the flat spot he hits which will only get more pronounced the older he gets. And at 11, the turn of foot that has got him out of trouble becomes increasingly less unlikely to do so. The last time I have him running to a rating it would take to win an up to scratch Champion Chase is in the Desert Orchid over Christmas 2018. That's nearly two years ago now, and there's no reason to believe he will be able to repeat it at the veteran stage.

Don't get me wrong, there's absolutely no bias here. I love Altior. I was on to him from his second novice hurdle at Ascot when he beat Ch'tibello in a fantastic time. I remember Maurice and I comparing notes at the time, both independently coming to a rating that was special. I backed him for the Supreme that day, and watched as the rest of the world caught up. When you find them early they always hold a special place, and I've pretty much backed him in every race since then, either to win or in some kind of multiple. And I have indeed backed him each way for the Champion Chase. But this time for the first time I don't expect him win unless the race cuts up.

If will say though, if he's in with a shout going up the hill I'll be shouting as loud as anyone for him to get up irrespective of what my pocket wants.
 
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I wonder if De Bromhead will send over Putthekettleon for the Tingle Creek, like he did Sizing Europe a few years ago?
 
Maruco said:
I can't get past the flat spot he hits which will only get more pronounced the older he gets. And at 11, the turn of foot that has got him out of trouble becomes increasingly less unlikely to do so. The last time I have him running to a rating it would take to win an up to scratch Champion Chase is in the Desert Orchid over Christmas 2018. That's nearly two years ago now, and there's no reason to believe he will be able to repeat it at the veteran stage.

Don't get me wrong, there's absolutely no bias here. I love Altior. I was on to him from his second novice hurdle at Ascot when he beat Ch'tibello in a fantastic time. I remember Maurice and I comparing notes at the time, both independently coming to a rating that was special. I backed him for the Supreme that day, and watched as the rest of the world caught up. When you find them early they always hold a special place, and I've pretty much backed him in every race since then, either to win or in some kind of multiple. And I have indeed backed him each way for the Champion Chase. But this time for the first time I don't expect him win unless the race cuts up.

If will say though, if he's in with a shout going up the hill I'll be shouting as loud as anyone for him to get up irrespective of what my pocket wants.
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The thing I always think about Altior, is the way he devours the ground at the end of his races; particularly at Cheltenham.

I don't think he hits a 'flat-spot' as such, as he never gets behind - I just think it takes him a few strides to find his gear, and then he just monsters them.

Clearly there is some degree of risk involved with a horse his age, and with the time off he has had..........but he has to be given the doubt - for the time being anyway.
 
I just wonder if, in their keenness to get him racing over further, they blunted his speed a little.

Hendo is a genius, though, and I wouldn't put it past him to re-train the horse for sheer speed. He might also be looking at the current two-milers and thinking they're there for the taking.

I also wonder if he might be thinking of going straight for the QM with Shishkin, whom he's been mentioning in similar terms as he used to with Altior (who, let's face it, would have won the QM as a novice).

He's made it very clear he fvcked up with Altior last year, sending him out short of peak fitness in heavy ground over the longer trip against the fitter Cyrname who went on to hit very high ratings.

I suppose the Tingle Creek will tell us more but it's just a pity nobody is going NRNB for Cheltenham at this stage as I wouldn't mind a wee interest on Altior to roll back the years.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I just wonder if, in their keenness to get him racing over further, they blunted his speed a little.

Hendo is a genius, though, and I wouldn't put it past him to re-train the horse for sheer speed. He might also be looking at the current two-milers and thinking they're there for the taking.

I also wonder if he might be thinking of going straight for the QM with Shishkin, whom he's been mentioning in similar terms as he used to with Altior (who, let's face it, would have won the QM as a novice).

He's made it very clear he fvcked up with Altior last year, sending him out short of peak fitness in heavy ground over the longer trip against the fitter Cyrname who went on to hit very high ratings.

I suppose the Tingle Creek will tell us more but it's just a pity nobody is going NRNB for Cheltenham at this stage as I wouldn't mind a wee interest on Altior to roll back the years.
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The best Altior would have won the QM but he had plenty enough on his plate to win his Arkle, when Charbel fell. It was Cloudy Dream, Ordinary World, Royal Cavier, Some Plan who he beat in the Arkle. I would have fancied Douvan to have done that easier. Whether the best Altior would beat the best Douvan....its a shame we never got to see it.
 
Maruco said:
With her mares allowance she probably won't need to run to more than 160 to win the race, and I'm sure she has at least that in her locker. So even for someone who missed 20/1 and 16/1, 10/1 is still great value. How does she finish out of the places?
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Still available at 12/1 with Ladbrokes


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