20/80 Thread

Leopardstown 4.10 - Saptapadi 14.5 & 3.55 - risky one as their are so many shrewd Irish trainers with one laid out for this race.

Saptapadi - trainer said after his race at Doncaster 3 races ago - "He ran very well at Doncaster behind Forgotten Hero, which was the first time he had made the first four in three years. He needs a bit of confidence and hopefully that will help a lot in that department. His big target is the Movember Handicap."
 
swedish chef said:
Leopardstown 4.10 - Saptapadi 14.5 & 3.55 - risky one as their are so many shrewd Irish trainers with one laid out for this race.

Saptapadi - trainer said after his race at Doncaster 3 races ago - "He ran very well at Doncaster behind Forgotten Hero, which was the first time he had made the first four in three years. He needs a bit of confidence and hopefully that will help a lot in that department. His big target is the Movember Handicap."
Click to expand...

4th (4places) odds reduced to 3.45 due to n/r - profit 16.74 after losing part of bet and deductions

Bank +414.58pts - Profit 214.54pts - Starting bank of 200 withdrawn

Bank & profit 214.58pts
 
Exeter 1.50 Sea Wall 19.0 & 4.3 Risky but trainer has great record in race and introduces his good novices at this meeting
 
swedish chef said:
Exeter 1.50 Sea Wall 19.0 & 4.3 Risky but trainer has great record in race and introduces his good novices at this meeting
Click to expand...

Sea Wall unplaced - loss 10pts

Bank & profit 215.06pts

I'm off today waiting for annual gas/safety check engineer - so I'm going for a few risky punts while in profit - will add them as I identify them.

Warwick 4.00 Pattara - average odds 35.72 & 8.05 - This may drift a lot bigger?
Trainer Noel Williams is just starting out on his own and was assistant trainer to Alan King for the past twelve years. He says, "Patarra is an unraced daughter of Fortunes Course, who won 9 races and was placed 18 times over hurdles and fences during her career. Pattara has bags of quality and looks a decent type, who will hopefully be as tough as her dam. She should start her racecourse career in a bumper."

A value bet imo as his old boss knows how to prepare one for a bumper.
 
Chepstow 2.10 Flaming Charmer 6.2 & 2.14 - Trainer says, "He was in the process of running a decent race when he fell at the last at Exeter on his Chase debut. He seems fine and we'll get him schooling and take it from there. I like him a lot."

He takes on Red Riverman again and is 5lb better off, hopefully should improve past him as R.R. was having his 3rd run.
 
Fairyhouse 1.55 Turica 10.0 & 2.18

6-y-o; chestnut mare
Breeding: Flemensfirth (USA) - Baden (IRE)
Trained by H de Bromhead


Runner-up to decent mare in a two-mile maiden on soft ground and winner in waiting.

“She is a lovely mare who ran well in a couple of maiden hurdles last year and she might have one more go in a maiden hurdle and then go novice chasing.”
 
Wawick 1.20 Ballywatt placed - profit 6.83 pts

Fairyhouse 1.55 Turica placed - profit 6.98 pts

Chepstow 2.10 Flaming Charmer won - profit 18.56 pts

Warwick 4.00 Pattava unplaced - loss 10pts

Profit on the day + 22.37pts

Bank & profit 237.43pts
 
Towcester 3.10 Walk On Al – 50.0 & ave 7.8

Trained by Dan Skelton who was Paul Nicholls trusted assistant for 9 years, he has a first class purpose built yard from scratch with a Safetrack gallop and Equaflow drainage system. I think he could rise through the ranks quickly.

Trainer says, “Walk On Al during his two runs between the flags in Ireland, he finished a creditable 2nd on his debut and on his second outing he again ran another promising race to finish 3rd. He should make up into a decent prospect in staying novice hurdles when there is cut in the ground.”

The form of his first PTP had 8 finishers and those that ran again:
8th – 2nd in a PTP n/t/o
6th – won a PTP n/t/o
5th won a PTP BY 20l n/t/o
4th has won a maiden hurdle under rules
3rd won a PTP n/t/o & finished midfield in a Cheltenham bumper won by Carningli last month
2nd Walk On Al finished 3rd in a PTP at Inch where the 2nd went on to cosily win a PTP n/t/o unfortunately race was void for a false start.

Today may not be the day but I see this trainer going places quickly and the price is value imo
 
Thurles 3.55 Definite Answer 8.2 & 2.08 - Trainer Dermot has had 46 bumper runners in the last 5 seasons - 29 have finished in the first 3 with 17 of them winning. With those percentages then the odds represent a value bet.
 
Towcester 3.10 Walk On Al & Thurles 3.55 Definite Answer - both unplaced = loss 20pts

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Saturday 9/11/13

Wincanton
2.40 De La Bach 9.2 & 3.15 trainer says, "There's a lot more to come from this horse and if I'm right there's no point blowing your h'cap mark winning a small race. So we are going to be ambitious and aim for The Badgers Ale Chase at Wincanton."
 
Wincanton 3.50 Spending Time 28.0 & 6.73 "There have been a few little issues with him but hopefully there sorted out and we think he'll improve enormously for his run at Chepstow. He didn't run badly that day and there is more to come."
 
Sandown 4.10 Tara Road 4.6 & 1.63 - "He has been working really well and is a nice, big horse with plenty of gears."
 
Market Rasen 12.20 Innsbruck 5.8 & 1.75

On a line through Dispour & Herod The Great there should be nothing between Harristown & Innsbruck. Innsbruck is the highest rated on the flat of those who have run in that discipline. He made some novicey jumps on his first run over hurdles and I would expect a big improvement in that department. Trainer has had 4 winners from 12 runners over hurdles at this track, the last two seasons.
 
Leicester 2.00 Points Of View 15.0 & average 3.95

On current form this horse doesn't have a hope, so a bit of a gamble here as this could drift to twice the odds. I think it will be gambled, his form 2 years ago, especially his 2 C/D & going wins a repeat of that and he's a stone well in. However he was off injured for 20 months and has shown limited form only twice on his 5 runs since.

The trainer Kim Bailey who is in great form says, "I am driving a horsebox to Leicester where we have three runners

Points Of View is our first runner and on form he has no chance, but he seems in great heart for a change and it would not be a total surprise to see him shock a few."

I believe him.
 
I'm going to have a go at this thread again - I stopped doing it because work became too busy and I couldn't find the time. Things have settled down now, so I'll update thread and continue.

Bank & profit 237.43pts

7-11-13
Towcester 3.10 Walk On Al – 50.0 & ave 7.8 - loss 10pts
Thurles 3.55 Definite Answer 8.2 & 2.08 - loss 10pts

9-11-13
Wincanton 2.40 De La Bach 9.2 & 3.15 - loss 10pts
Wincanton 3.50 Spending Time 28.0 & 6.73 - loss 10pts
Sandown 4.10 Tara Road 4.6 & 1.63 - profit 2.79pts

2-12-13
Plumpton 12.40 Electrolyser 3.9 & 1.75 - profit 11.21

5-12-13
Market Rasen 12.20 Innsbruck 5.8 & 1.75 - loss 10pts
Leicester 2.00 Points Of View 15.0 & average 3.95 - loss 10pts

Total = loss of 46 pts

Thread P/L = profit 191.43pts
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Kempton

3.20 Squire
Back (Bet For) Odds Stake Profit
Squire 8.4 £2.00 £14.80

Back (Bet For) Odds Stake Profit
Squire 2.78 £6.26 £11.14
Squire 2.8 £1.74 £3.13

4.55 Knight Music

Back (Bet For) Odds Stake Profit
Knight Music 20 £2.00 £38.00

Back (Bet For) Odds Stake Profit
Knight Music 4.4 £1.00 £3.40
Knight Music 4.9 £7.00 £27.30
 
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