2009 Arc.

Euronymous

Euronymous

Senior Jockey
Joined
Jan 6, 2005
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Stacelita and Sea the Stars still joint favourites for the race despite Fame and Glory's romp in the Irish Derby today.

I'm with F&G at 12s and took some 7s on the French filly after the Diane as her price will only contract given the prep she is likely to receive. Of the older horses, Youmzain may have gone at the game and Conduit is surely the only danger to this current crop of good 3yo's.
 
I'd wait

Until after the GP de Paris, there's a few in who could be about at big prices still. Cavalryman, Cutlass Bay and Telluride all have a lot of improvement.
 
Good bets Euro, though I personally would trade out of the FAG one.

The 7s on Stacelita could look a very good bet after the Vermeille.
 
Euronymous said:
Stacelita and Sea the Stars still joint favourites for the race despite Fame and Glory's romp in the Irish Derby today.

I'm with F&G at 12s and took some 7s on the French filly after the Diane as her price will only contract given the prep she is likely to receive. Of the older horses, Youmzain may have gone at the game and Conduit is surely the only danger to this current crop of good 3yo's.
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Pleased to say I'm also on Fame at 14s (with Ladbrokes) and 12s elsewhere. If there is any 7s left at PP I'll probably go in again (He's as short as 4/1 favourite in some books).

I'm pleased enough to be solely on this one for now. Given a bit of cut he'll be hard to beat.
 
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6/1 on F&G for the Arc?

do you lose your stake if it don't run as well by the way?..not sure how these markets work these days with deductions etc

I'm no expert..but that isn't value in my eyes..would you bet F&G if he won a Leger at that price?

he is perfect Leger material..so how can 6/1 be a good price for the Arc?

just trying to see how you go about assessing it
 
EC1 said:
so how can 6/1 be a good price for the Arc?
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Alternatives?
None of the French 3yo colts have shown up yet. Usually one will have come out of the pack by now. The older horses don't look good enough and Sea the Stars may not go there and if he does will probably have had too many races. 6s is reasonable. And even if it isn't it's a top up bet anyway.
 
we could see something come to the fore though Euronymous..plenty of time for the Autumn horses to come through..its such early days yet...then there is risk of injury..the race isn't a gimme for a stamina horse..lots of examples of that..he is a stamina horse..you could not have had a better display than on Sunday of what F&G has now become..a very powerful stayer

again I'll say it..the Leger would be a gimme for him..its still a classic..and it would look better on CV than a string of losses in 10f races he patently ain't suited too.

Because he looks a St Leger horse to me..I can't see the Arc being suitable..how many Leger horses win the Arc?

its all down to opinion..but evidence says stamina is the forte of F&G..could end up looking like Youmzain in an Arc
 
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How can anyone say that "no french 3 year olds have turned up yet". Isnt the filly 3?
 
Euronymous said:
Alternatives?
None of the French 3yo colts have shown up yet. Usually one will have come out of the pack by now. The older horses don't look good enough and Sea the Stars may not go there and if he does will probably have had too many races. 6s is reasonable. And even if it isn't it's a top up bet anyway.
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give the french colts til July 14th!!
 
Yes EC1. But doesnt mention the filly at all.....which is surely an oversight of course
 
Euronymous said:
Alternatives?
None of the French 3yo colts have shown up yet. Usually one will have come out of the pack by now. The older horses don't look good enough and Sea the Stars may not go there and if he does will probably have had too many races. 6s is reasonable. And even if it isn't it's a top up bet anyway.
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I think Stoute holds the key to the older horses, but both Conduit and Spanish Moon could easily be re-routed to other targets.

As regards French 3 year old colts, it's reasonable to expect none to have come forward as of yet. The french pattern is now very different to the British and Irish one, and those that need 12f to be at their best will only have that (in most of their cases) for the first time in the Grand Prixe de Paris. The trick is trying to solve that puzzle, and that's where I think the antepost value lies for the Arc, in addition to Stacelita.
 
EC1 said:
6/1 on F&G for the Arc?

do you lose your stake if it don't run as well by the way?..not sure how these markets work these days with deductions etc

I'm no expert..but that isn't value in my eyes.
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how can you say yo dont know how this market works and then say it is not value?
 
Fame and Glory

I dont see why this horse is going to run in the St Leger when he has won the Irish Derby by 5l.

the obvious campaign is Niel and Arc
 
EC1 said:
6/1 on F&G for the Arc?

do you lose your stake if it don't run as well by the way?..not sure how these markets work these days with deductions etc

I'm no expert..but that isn't value in my eyes..would you bet F&G if he won a Leger at that price?

he is perfect Leger material..so how can 6/1 be a good price for the Arc?

just trying to see how you go about assessing it
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I like a horse with stamina and speed for the Arc. Fame has both. The likes of Montjeu (Fame’s sire), Sinndar and Hurricane Run won the Arc after the Irish Derby. Fame is a similar type, he is also top-rated 3-y-o above Mastercraftsman and STS. I wouldn’t want STS in the Arc, the filly isn’t good enough, the older horses?... I’m a bit interested in one or two but have not gone for any yet. I’ve averaged double figures on Fame for the Arc and am very happy to stick there for now. This looks decent ante-post value to me. I always try to balance size and value when staking and am very comfortable about where I am.

He could run in the Leger but I think he’s more likely to run in the Arc… it’s not beyond the realms of possibility they would consider both.
 
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They have a yard choc full of staying 3 year olds...they will find something else for the Leger rather than Fame And Glory.
 
Galileo said:
They have a yard choc full of staying 3 year olds...they will find something else for the Leger rather than Fame And Glory.
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I'm sure you're are right. Virtually any other yard would be tempted to go for the Leger but Ballydoyle have a handful of right types for that. It will definitely be the Arc rather than the St Leger... I just wonder if they'll be tempted to do both.
 
Besides Masterofthehorse, who do Ballydoyle have for the Leger? Age of Acquarius, Freemantle and Black Bear Island are not good enough on all known evidence, and I don't think Golden Sword will stay.
 
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