2021 1000 Guineas

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
Messages
24,311
I took Miss Amulet at 50/1 back in August on the back of an excellent time in the Lowther. I went in again at the same price a couple of weeks later. From memory, it might have been because I'd read that Coolmore had acquired her but I see she runs in the colours of Mrs Tabor. I don't have a great eye for horses' conformation or distance requirements but I thought she looked like the six were too sharp for her in the Cheveley Park. Timeform say she looks like a sprinter but her dosage suggests at least a mile and she "stayed on well" over that trip at Keeneland. I remain hopeful.

As I mentioned on here somewhere at the time, I was reading up on some stuff back in January that got me looking at the replay of that Keeneland race and the one that caught my eye was Mother Earth. I reckoned she was worth a substantial mark-up on the performance and took 25/1 for this race.

I also took her in an each-way yankee with Battleground (2000G), High Definition (Derby) and Santa Barbara (Oaks).

I went in again on Mother Earth at 20/1 at the start of this month when I saw Timeform were keen on her chances (each-way).

They also mention A'Shaari (Godolphin) but she's bred for the Oaks or maybe even further (Dosage: [FONT=&quot]DP = 3-8-7-11-1 (30) DI = 0.94 CD = 0.03[/FONT] . Certainly, if she were to win the Guineas, she'd be a near-cert for the Oaks.
 
I thought Sacred’s run in the Nell Gwyn today was a much better win than it looked (and that, in any case, was pretty impressive). She was slowly away, but Ryan Moore moved her up quickly on the rail behind Love is You. There she was stuck, well boxed in with nowhere to go and Moore let her drift back towards the rear. Fortuitously Love is You rolled away from the rail around the 3 furlong mark, Moore pressed the accelerator and through went Sacred, only to find herself now stuck behind the leading threesome until, with just more than a furlong to go, Chocoya drifted left and Moore wasted no time dashing through the gap and Sacred pushed home from there quite comfortably.

So, a solid performance made even better by the troubles she had to overcome on the way. She’s a live contender, I think.
 
Yes I agree with you about Sacred. I thought today was a very nice performance and I was a bit surprised with Moore’s reaction. Haggas clearly thinks she will stay. She’s made up into a good sized 3yo too and although the “experts” will cry she won’t stay, she settled really well today and her dam is a half sister to Lady Eli who won the BC Juvenile Turf over a mile and stayed 1m 2f. I like her a lot.
 
If it's fast ground on Guineas day with a following wind she goes there with a shout.
Click to expand...

Not sure he sounds that confident, tbh Jinny. RM seems to field against her too
 
jinnyj said:
Yes I agree with you about Sacred. I thought today was a very nice performance and I was a bit surprised with Moore’s reaction. Haggas clearly thinks she will stay. She’s made up into a good sized 3yo too and although the “experts” will cry she won’t stay, she settled really well today and her dam is a half sister to Lady Eli who won the BC Juvenile Turf over a mile and stayed 1m 2f. I like her a lot.
Click to expand...

I liked today's win as well but for other reasons. Sacred was second to Miss Amulet at York, form I rate top class.
 
I have kept an eye open for Jeff Smith's horses since the early 80"s when whilst putting together a financing package that helped his business win a significant export order I was recommended to follow his then untried 2yo, Chief Singer. The horse became the first flat horse that I followed throughout his career, travelling to see the beautiful beast run whenever possible. The same with the admirable Persian Punch.
Last September I put up his Foxtrot Lady as one to back when he put Dettori on the horse which duly won at 18/1.
Using part of the proceeds I added Alcohol Free for the 1000 gns to my core Cheltenham AP multiples at 33/1. Unfortunately with NR's and Abacadabra's fall I have only one small stake double left with Minella Indo.
At the same time I began backing Alcohol Free singly and have numerous small stakes bets at prices ranging from 44's to 10/1, several as the remainder of failed multiples.

Realistically I am guessing as to whether she has developed over the winter and it will depend on her performance on Sunday in the Dubai Duty Free ( awful name for a race). Hoping not expecting though Balding's recent comments provide some encouragement.
 
I don't think we saw the winner of the 1000 Guineas at Newbury today.

Some reasonable performances but no real class.
 
Erm? We’re you not taken with Snow Lantern? I thought she was a very, very nice filly who is entitled to go to Newmarket with my small ante post of 20s. A beautiful filly on looks, pedigree and the way she won today. OK it was a maiden but the first three pulled well clear and all look nice. And Hannon I thought itching to persuade the owners to run her. He’s even had Richard Hughes over for a spin on her as she’s so like her mother.
 
It was a nice performance, no doubt about it, and I took the runner-up a couple of weeks ago at 50/1 for the Derby but we're looking at horses rated in the 80s going into the race and maybe 100-105 coming out of it. Derab will have six weeks to improve a stone to be competitive in the Derby but he's a See The Stars half-brother to Enable and might just do so. Snow Lantern only has two weeks in which to improve the same amount for the Guineas.

I just wonder what the likes of Mother Earth and Santa Barbara might have done to today's field.
 
Last edited:
Apart from the fact she’s from Ballydoyle and no doubt catching pigeons as well as pan-frying their breasts in a little blackberry jus, I fail to see why Santa Barbara is so short judged on one maiden win (she may well have been visually impressive, I haven’t seen it) especially as those she beat haven’t exactly come out and done much. Or am I missing something? Mother Earth does at least have G1 form although is a bit in and out.
 
jinnyj said:
Apart from the fact she’s from Ballydoyle and no doubt catching pigeons as well as pan-frying their breasts in a little blackberry jus, I fail to see why Santa Barbara is so short judged on one maiden win (she may well have been visually impressive, I haven’t seen it) especially as those she beat haven’t exactly come out and done much. Or am I missing something? Mother Earth does at least have G1 form although is a bit in and out.
Click to expand...

Yes, I totally get that SB hasn't done anything of note in public. But Mother Earth has, as you say, the G1 form in the book, as do a few other Ballydoyle fillies, so I, for one, have to wonder exactly what SB has been doing at home that has seen her come in from the cold to favourite ahead of them.

I see there's a paywall item on the RP site about SB today. I'm not convinced about her Guineas credentials, to be honest. I suspect it's the move for her for the Oaks (which happened first, as far as I know), which then basically spilled over into the Guineas market that's behind it. I'm not even convinced SB will run in the Guineas although O'Brien does tend to use it as a prep for his better Oaks fillies. I think the more battle-hardened types do better even if they're of slightly lesser ability.

I'm a fan of Hannon. I think he's a top trainer and there's a long history of the stable getting them into the frame in the Guineas from well under the radar, winning even. So I can see why Snow Lantern would appeal. To be honest, if she'd turned up on the day without a prep I might have been tempted to have a small bet at long odds so there's an element of misplaced logic in dissing her since she's now had a run. It's more the fact, I reckon, that it was a C4 race they opted for for the prep. I think it throws up lots of questions. Did they think she would get away with an easy race? Did they know Derab and the Fox horse would give her a race? Has she ended up with a harder race than they really wanted? And now they've revealed their hand to an extent.

You got the value, jinnyj, but would you back her today at her current price?
 
Yes I probably would. Hannon I thought is very excited by her. While he’s often quite bullish and vocal about horses, I sensed a different tone this time. So long as she handles the dip, I think she will go close. I loved her mother and backed her throughout her career. I like the daughter even more physically. Has she had a hard race? Not particularly in my opinion. And they need to know what it’s all about anyway.
I have backed Sacred too (and in an ew double with Master of the Seas) as I felt that was a good trial. Will she stay? Well for me she relaxed really well which is a major plus and had her ears pricked at the end. Perhaps I will also do RF with Snow Lantern!
Of course anything form Ballydoyle is to be feared but they don’t win every race.
Occasionally I get an inner buzz about a horse....Frankel when he beat Nathaniel (think I flagged it on here too) and also Enable when I first saw her run and took a price for the Oaks. I do get it wrong sometimes too though! :lol:
 
I know what a good judge of horseflesh you are, jinnyj, so I have the late mother-in-law's surplus NHS Pampers firmly fastened when you disagree with me :lol:
 
Is there a forfeit stage today?

I notice Bet365 have removed several from their list (including Snow Lantern) and shortened up the others (eg Mother Earth into 14s).
 
I have watched Alcohol Free's race on Sunday several times but am still not sure what I learned. Clearly she stays 7 furlongs but further? During the race I thought she would be beaten and like others on here I was more impressed with Snow Lantern's performance. My immediate reaction was to look at laying off a major portion of my bets for the 1000gns. The prices were a little higher than I expected so no immediate action. Then listened to and read the various comments from the trainer which were generally upbeat but also revealed the paucity of my knowledge of the physical aspects of a horse.
"She's not come into her coat and we've not been able to really work her". I thought I knew what that meant but on reflection I have no idea whether there is a real chance of her being in prime condition for May 2. The trainer appears to think so but I would appreciate input from those more knowledgeable than me ( of which there a many on here).
 
Yes I was more impressed with Snow Lantern that Alcohol Free personally and am gutted that she doesn’t get to take her chance in the Guineas.
I would imagine these cold nights are making fillies hang on to their woolly coats a bit longer but the recent day warmth will make them shed them pretty quick. I am a firm believer in that horses can lose their form a bit when they are mid moult and like to either see them clipped out (as in winter months) but still with a good sheen to their skin or in full summer coat looking glossy and dappled. Not sure why they haven’t been able to work her? Perhaps that means on the grass? It has quickly gone from being soft to very firm with no in between and I imagine unlike Newmarket for example, Balding doesn’t water so it means he is relying on his artificial surfaces which some horses find too easy.
Im not the biggest fan of this filly if I were honest and she did hang a little in the race but she was caught out wide. But then again I wasn’t a Kameko fan either!
 
From Kevin Blake's piece on the ATR site:

[https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/kevin-blake/19-April-2021/guineas-market-movers-]

Even more sensational is what has happened in the market for the 1,000 Guineas in the last month. Again, in the face of a great amount of uncertainty as to which of the fillies from last year remains the best candidate for the race, a very bullish report published on this website just three weeks ago about Santa Barbara sparked off a stampede of market support that saw her shorten from 10/1 into the general 7/4 favourite.

This was even more remarkable due to the fact that Santa Barbara has only been seen once on a racecourse, winning a maiden at the Curragh in great style back in September. Such an inexperienced filly hasn’t won the 1,000 Guineas since Ghanaati in 2009 and, by and large, the race is won by fillies with significantly more racecourse experience.

Thus, in historical terms, it will be a substantial ask of Santa Barbara to win the 1,000 Guineas on just her second start. However, one can’t help but feel that with last year being such a strange season, that trends stemming from normal years will not be as relevant as they usually are.

It also seems significant that Aidan O’Brien made the deliberate move not to run Santa Barbara in a Guineas trial despite having the option to do so. He has been quoted as saying that she doesn’t show any hint of greenness in her homework, thus he didn’t feel she needed another run prior to the 1,000 Guineas. This will give encouragement to those that have supported her.

Another interesting factor to consider is how the manner in which O’Brien prepares his fillies for the 1,000 Guineas has evolved over time. In the past, it was very eyecatching indeed that O’Brien-trained fillies that had run in a trial prior to the 1,000 Guineas notably outperformed those that went straight to Newmarket. This was particularly unexpected as the group that had run in trials were sent off at an average price in the 1,000 Guineas that was three times bigger than those that went straight there. However, that has changed in recent years.

It wouldn’t be correct to include Love’s victory in last year’s renewal in any such analysis given that it took place at a later date and trials were not an option, but prior to that two of O’Brien’s last three 1,000 Guineas winners (Minding and Hermosa) went straight to the 1,000 Guineas without a run in a trial.

Whatever O’Brien has changed, the end result has been his 1,000 Guineas fillies that go straight to Newmarket seem to be performing notably better than they once did. Supporters of Santa Barbara can take encouragement from that, but the daughter of Camelot still faces a substantial task that her price of 7/4 doesn’t seem to reflect. It will be fascinating to see how she fares.
 
The Frankel filly who doesn't run looks nice. Hughes has ridden her and thinks she will get the 12. Emm interesting!
 
16 left in

Alcohol Free
Baby Alya
Fev Rover
Lullaby Moon
Mother Earth
Pretty Gorgeous
Queen's Speech
Sacred
Saffron Beach
Santa Barbara
Seattle Rock
Snowfall
Star of Emaraaty
Statement
Thunder Beauty
Vadream
 
Back
Top