2021 1000 Guineas

Depressingly, only five of the British-trained entries have ORs in excess of 100:

Alcohol Free 112
Fev Rover 108
Sacred 108
Saffron Beach 105
Lullaby Moon 104

De-adjusting RPRs for the Irish entries gives us:

Pretty Gorgeous 114
Mother Earth 111
Thunder Beauty 103


It looks like Santa Barbara might not have to be that special to win.

I've had a nibble at Thunder Beauty at 25/1. I backed Miss Amulet for this (twice) last summer at 50/1 and 40/1 and would fancy her for a place if she turned up so I'm interested that the trainer is sending her elsewhere (France, presumably) and letting Thunder Beauty run.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Depressingly, only five of the British-trained entries have ORs in excess of 100:

Alcohol Free 112
Fev Rover 108
Sacred 108
Saffron Beach 105
Lullaby Moon 104

De-adjusting RPRs for the Irish entries gives us:

Pretty Gorgeous 114
Mother Earth 111
Thunder Beauty 103


It looks like Santa Barbara might not have to be that special to win.

I've had a nibble at Thunder Beauty at 25/1. I backed Miss Amulet for this (twice) last summer at 50/1 and 40/1 and would fancy her for a place if she turned up so I'm interested that the trainer is sending her elsewhere (France, presumably) and letting Thunder Beauty run.
Click to expand...

I think Sacred will have a much more respectable rating after the race.
 
I came here to give you the all the definite winner of the 1000Gns, but just can't get past pigeon breast and blackberry jus, so I have decided not to.
 
Yes, ME was third, Snowfall was unplaced.

I still like ME's run in the US. Worth reviewing. Either nothing went right or Moore deliberately rode her with this season in mind.
 
Yeah just watched it. I really don't fancy anything in this but feel I have to back one with the fav being so ridiculously short. Mother Earth I've come down on.
 
Intriguing race, pacewise: I have most of the principals down as unlikely to stay, even on fast ground, and the short-priced fav as needing every yard of it (on form and pedigree). The conundrum is; she's a Coolmore filly, and they're not nearly as important as colts to their breeding operation, so who knows how hard she'll be going? Given the lack of credible opposition, she'll probably dot up anyway.
4 places, on Fev Rover, in the hope of the blinds sharpening her up, would be the nearest I'd get to a bet.
 
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I had another look at the race yesterday evening and concluded (odds references as of then):

[TABLE="width: 368"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Draw
[/TD]
[TD]Form
[/TD]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]OR
[/TD]
[TD]RPR
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 11
[/TD]
[TD]121-1
[/TD]
[TD] Alcohol Free
[/TD]
[TD]112
[/TD]
[TD]127
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 2
[/TD]
[TD]33032-
[/TD]
[TD] Mother Earth
[/TD]
[TD]111
[/TD]
[TD]125
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 4
[/TD]
[TD]22114-
[/TD]
[TD] Fev Rover
[/TD]
[TD]108
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 9
[/TD]
[TD]2228-1
[/TD]
[TD] Sacred
[/TD]
[TD]108
[/TD]
[TD]121
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 3
[/TD]
[TD]221-2
[/TD]
[TD] Statement
[/TD]
[TD]106
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10
[/TD]
[TD]11-2
[/TD]
[TD] Saffron Beach
[/TD]
[TD]105
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 8
[/TD]
[TD]01311-
[/TD]
[TD] Lullaby Moon
[/TD]
[TD]104
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 12
[/TD]
[TD]157-
[/TD]
[TD] Thunder Beauty
[/TD]
[TD]105
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 5
[/TD]
[TD]4157-5
[/TD]
[TD] Star Of Emaraaty
[/TD]
[TD]96
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 6
[/TD]
[TD]1-3
[/TD]
[TD] Vadream
[/TD]
[TD]100
[/TD]
[TD]113
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 7
[/TD]
[TD]3633-7
[/TD]
[TD] Seattle Rock
[/TD]
[TD]93
[/TD]
[TD]110
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 1
[/TD]
[TD]1-
[/TD]
[TD] Santa Barbara
[/TD]
[TD]-
[/TD]
[TD]109
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

I’m now genuinely worried about my ante-post ‘investments’ on Mother Earth (8/1). The Coolmore horses are running as though prepping for the milk round rather than winning classics. Santa Barbara (7/4) certainly does not appeal. Alcohol Free (9/1) and Sacred (7/1) have stamina doubts. After them we’re starting to get into the realms of the fanciful notion of lowly-rated horses winning this race. Fev Rover (14s) actually went off 5/2f for the Marcel Boussac but met trouble in running. Most of her form is with give but she does have a Sandown win on fast ground in her CV. She’s probably the each-way percentage call on the day.

I don't feel any different this morning.
 
Statement for me. Trials form often gets reversed in this race.
Also following in with Fev Rover


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I think it’s a vet substandard renewal. I think Santa Barbara is the price she is because of the perspective failings of her rivals rather than her own chance. I’ve come down on statement e/w I think she’s unlikely to be far away . I think sacred has a better chance of staying than most people seem to think, I’m just not sure she’s good enough unless she actually improves for the trip. I don’t think alcohol free will quite see it out and I expect statement to reverse the form. Vadream could be the fly in the ointment, she did well to get so close at Newbury only her second start and will definitely improve for the trip ... I might yet have a tickle e/w
 
Well done Mother Earth backers. A great run from Fev Rover thanks guys for talking that one up. Statement way too keen early


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The Queens Speech runs in the next at The Curragh -I'm told APOB expects her to be the best 3yo filly in the yard by the end of the season but not necessarily today.I'd be inclined to have a few quid on her regardless.
 
LUKE said:
The Queens Speech runs in the next at The Curragh -I'm told APOB expects her to be the best 3yo filly in the yard by the end of the season but not necessarily today.I'd be inclined to have a few quid on her regardless.
Click to expand...

Ran like King George V's speech
 
I really should have backed Mother Earth, given that mine has been getting threats on here haha.

I wish I'd seen the irony...
 
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