2021 Oaks

Maxbet said:
Her Dosage is more or less the same as Ace Aussie...different numbers but the tail line is sprint orientated....
Her Dam, Homecoming Queen stole the 1,000 guineas as a pacemaker, the only race she won over a mile....
Shale also has 3 other siblings, all by Galileo and none of them got further than a 1m1f.

Edit...
Out of the 22 Holy Roman Emperor mares crossed with Galileo, only one, Johannes Vermeer got 1m2f but failed to stay over further. His Dam, Inca Princess was a sprinter but Her Dam, Miletrian, won the Parkhill, hence the slight upward degree in stamina.

Shale is a miler. She's owned by the very same connections as Mother Earth.....she could well be on a par with her and they knew that ME would be contesting two top-class mile races in a short space of time, so they saved her, Shale, for the Irish 1,000....
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You have my attention.
 
Do Coolemore have so much money to waste 12f entries are pointless?

Ace Aussie's two long-term entries are over 12f.

The full siblings were pretty modest creatures but tended to run over a mile as juveniles. They weren't tried beyond 10f, possibly for a reason, but I'm more inclined to think they were just not very good. None had long careers so maybe training on is the issue given that HQ never really progressed after her Guineas.

Shale looks different in terms of what's she's already achieved but at least my hopes are now appropriately tempered :)
 
Desert Orchid said:
Do Coolemore have so much money to waste 12f entries are pointless?

Ace Aussie's two long-term entries are over 12f.

The full siblings were pretty modest creatures but tended to run over a mile as juveniles. They weren't tried beyond 10f, possibly for a reason, but I'm more inclined to think they were just not very good. None had long careers so maybe training on is the issue given that HQ never really progressed after her Guineas.

Shale looks different in terms of what's she's already achieved but at least my hopes are now appropriately tempered :)
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Before the last declaration stage, they had 27 still in the Derby..Machine gun approach

Shale is running on Sunday, 12 days before the Oaks.... Her entry is surely precautionary...She has 5 entries...2 over a mile, 2 Oaks, and the Pretty Polly over 1m2f.
 
Maxbet said:
Before the last declaration stage, they had 27 still in the Derby..Machine gun approach
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Exactly. They took out the real no-hopers so why leave this one in? Why do they need a precautionary entry for the Oaks if she is a no-hoper?

The Guineas run might be her final serious gallop :lol:

But just to be clear, at no time have I suggested Shale can/will win the Oaks. I stand to win pretty big off Santa Barbara (188/1 in the double with Mother Earth and 1511/1 in the treble with HD) but I've been trying to get ones whose odds were much longer than their true chances (hence Dubai Fountain at 33/1) with a view to laying off at shorter and having several 'onside' to little or no risk, just for cover.

At the moment, I think Shale is officially the top-rated horse in the race. The 25/1 on offer was about whether or not her stamina would hold out because if it does and she is fit enough to do her rating justice she won't be far away.

I'm not trying to teach my granny to suck eggs (I'm not sure my granny knew anyway, to be honest) but betting isn't about winning a battle; it's about winning the war.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Exactly. They took out the real no-hopers so why leave this one in? Why do they need a precautionary entry for the Oaks if she is a no-hoper?

The Guineas run might be her final serious gallop :lol:

But just to be clear, at no time have I suggested Shale can/will win the Oaks. I stand to win pretty big off Santa Barbara (188/1 in the double with Mother Earth and 1511/1 in the treble with HD) but I've been trying to get ones whose odds were much longer than their true chances (hence Dubai Fountain at 33/1) with a view to laying off at shorter and having several 'onside' to little or no risk, just for cover.
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1) I think it's left in because it's Donnacha trained...
2) Have a saver in the Derby on Mohaafeth...he's the one true stayer!
 
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St Aidan quoted on the RTV site:

Santa Barbara:

It was a big risk going to the 1000 Guineas on only her second run, but she ran very well. This was always pencilled in to be her next run.

She came out of the 1000 Guineas well and everything has gone well with her since. She hasn’t been over that far before, but she is a Camelot filly and we are really looking forward to seeing her run. She was always very special in her work.

Physically she has been very good (since the 1000 Guineas), she didn’t lose much weight and mentally she has been very relaxed. They were the two big things you want to see. It is a risk going into a Classic on only your second run, from a very easy run on softish ground at the Curragh, to then go to Newmarket on fast ground. We were really delighted the way she came out of it.

Snowfall:

We always thought the world of Snowfall last year, but we could never get her to produce what she was doing at home. Maybe a little bit of time over the winter, maybe she matured from two to three and a little bit extra distance has helped her. We were delighted for her to show what she has been showing us the last year at home.

Physically she has done well since and mentally she is lovely, so it is very possible that she could really take off.
 
Donnacha O'Brien eyeing Coronation Stakes or Diane for star filly Shale

Shale, the joint highest-rated juvenile filly in Europe last season, could join a top-class cast of fillies in next month's Coronation Stakes or bid for Classic glory in the Prix de Diane, according to trainer Donnacha O'Brien.

The 2020 Moyglare Stakes heroine was a general 11-2 chance for Sunday's Irish 1,000 Guineas at the Curragh but missed the contest, which was run on going described as heavy.

"We didn't want to run her on very bad ground," said O'Brien. "It's going to be a long season so we didn't want to bottom her. She's fine, though, and I'd imagine it'll be either the Prix de Diane or the Coronation Stakes for her."
 
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What am i missing with Dubai Fountain at 12-1? She beat Zeyaadah (5-1) LTO in the Cheshire Oaks, had good 2 year old form, should stay and is fairy well bred.
 
ep1987 said:
What am i missing with Dubai Fountain at 12-1? She beat Zeyaadah (5-1) LTO in the Cheshire Oaks, had good 2 year old form, should stay and is fairy well bred.
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Front running around a greyhound track. Trained by a man incapable of getting a horse to run two good races in a row.

But mostly because Zeyaadah is seen as more progressive and was giving Dubai Fountain 3lbs at Chester when arguably unlucky and only beaten a length.
 
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ep1987 said:
What am i missing with Dubai Fountain at 12-1? She beat Zeyaadah (5-1) LTO in the Cheshire Oaks, had good 2-year-old form, should stay, and is fairy well-bred.
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Watch the race...Zeyaadah was trapped in swinging on the bridal...Dubai Fountain got first run
 
Maxbet said:
Watch the race...Zeyaadah was trapped in swinging on the bridal...Dubai Fountain got first run
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Indeed.

However, what's to say Dubai Fountain was anywhere near fit? She was comfortably clear on the ratings going into it and could afford to go there half-cooked.

Then again, it's okay for me to say that, having backed her at 33/1 for this in the lead-up to that :cool:

I still think she should be around the same price as Zeyaadah, though.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Indeed.

However, what's to say Dubai Fountain was anywhere near fit? She was comfortably clear on the ratings going into it and could afford to go there half-cooked.

Then again, it's okay for me to say that, having backed her at 33/1 for this in the lead-up to that :cool:

I still think she should be around the same price as Zeyaadah, though.
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What's to say Zeyaadah was only half cooked, the Oaks being the target. She was giving DF 3Lb was trapped in, closing in 2 to 1 at the finish only beaten a length. She will relish the extra trip and drying ground!
 
Maxbet said:
What's to say Zeyaadah was only half cooked, the Oaks being the target. She was giving DF 3Lb was trapped in, closing in 2 to 1 at the finish only beaten a length. She will relish the extra trip and drying ground!
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I accept the possibility but I think they probably needed to have her pretty ready to run so well off such a disadvantageous mark to find out how good she might be. If she beats DF, fair enough, I won't complain. I'm just not convinced their respective prices represent value (which, I accept, is a slightly different argument).
 
Desert Orchid said:
I accept the possibility but I think they probably needed to have her pretty ready to run so well off such a disadvantageous mark to find out how good she might be. If she beats DF, fair enough, I won't complain. I'm just not convinced their respective prices to represent value (which, I accept, is a slightly different argument).
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Roger Varian is relishing the prospect of a three-pronged attack on the Cazoo Oaks at Epsom next week.

The Newmarket handler is responsible for the two shortest-priced British-trained runners for the fillies' Classic in Zeyaadah and Teona, while Save A Forest is viewed as a lively outsider.

All three were beaten in their trials, but Zeyaadah in particular was a little unlucky when charging home from an uncompromising position to fill the runner-up spot behind Dubai Fountain in the Cheshire Oaks.

Angus Gold “She’s taken a bit of time to come to herself this spring. Roger himself said we’ll see her looking better than this, but she’s done enough to start.

Roger Varian "I know Jim (Crowley) got a mighty feel from her - he was buzzing about her when he got off."
 
Maxbet said:
Roger Varian is relishing the prospect of a three-pronged attack on the Cazoo Oaks at Epsom next week.

The Newmarket handler is responsible for the two shortest-priced British-trained runners for the fillies' Classic in Zeyaadah and Teona, while Save A Forest is viewed as a lively outsider.

All three were beaten in their trials, but Zeyaadah in particular was a little unlucky when charging home from an uncompromising position to fill the runner-up spot behind Dubai Fountain in the Cheshire Oaks.

Angus Gold “She’s taken a bit of time to come to herself this spring. Roger himself said we’ll see her looking better than this, but she’s done enough to start.

Roger Varian "I know Jim (Crowley) got a mighty feel from her - he was buzzing about her when he got off."
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The Weekender's Newmarket gallops correspondent (David Milnes) reckons the stablemate Teona will beat Zeyaadah.

While I tend to skim through the actual reports of the Newmarket gallops, really just to see what earns the "impressed" comment, it's very rare for me to read the full columns so I've no idea if he's any sort of judge.

But it makes me wonder if Zeyaadah can really be that great.
 
I wasn't gonna get involved but the rain has put even more of a premium on stamina. Gonna have a couple of small each ways on Divinely and Save a Forest.
 
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