2022 Cesarewitch

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
Messages
25,759
I haven't really thought much about this race so far. I probably have, but can't remember, checked out the entries, but this piece in the RP today caught my attention:

How did he get there? The Cesarewitch market mover into 5-1 from 25s | Horse Racing News | Racing Post

So it seems Pricewise put the horse up recently and I have to say I'm kicking myself a bit for not beating him to it.

Adagio is rated 152 over hurdles. That should equate to around 110 on the Flat but he's getting in off just 87. And hurdlers tend to do very well in the Ces.

He's 6/1 with Sky at the moment. If he's still that price after the 5-day decs come out today I'll be re-investing a fair chunk of my weekend winnings.
 
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Adagio looks to have an obvious chance but he’s not the only one who looks well treated. The four horses being quoted in single figures would appear to have this between them and it’s hard to see much value elsewhere.

Personally I’d prefer to be on a Henderson or O’Brien trained horse over a David Pipe one.
 
Adagio is a false joint favoutite IMO he should be around 12/1 to 16/1 which reflects his real chance.

What? suddebly David piple has discovered he has a new flat race star in his yard....

Gimme a break he's had the horse for 2 years and won next to nothing. Ran well in the greatwood but that form stinks to the high heavens.

Couldn't handle Goshen who's a pig and he was kicked into touch at Goodwood.

Place chance in my book at best.

Waterville had to be seen to be believed the way he came from last to first in the Irish version.
The second is no mug and the form looks solid........worthy fav
Looks to have a touch of class but will he run???

Nicky has run some good horses in this and won it 3 times.

Ahorsewithnoname has won his last 4 and has William Buick up.

He'll have to go some to beat Aiden's if he has recovered fully from his win in the Irish version.
 
Not a race I like.just for a bit of interest I did Bascule at 33/1.
I think Tan sums it up about right.
 
Interesting meeting but one big question????

Why on earth is Sakheer 5/2 he should be 2/5 is there a chance he won't run or what?
 
He's been supplemented so must run. I don't know why he's 5/2, the Godolphin horse is stepping down in trip and not sure both Juddmonte's will go.
 
wilsonl said:
Adagio looks to have an obvious chance but he’s not the only one who looks well treated. The four horses being quoted in single figures would appear to have this between them and it’s hard to see much value elsewhere.

Personally I’d prefer to be on a Henderson or O’Brien trained horse over a David Pipe one.
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Yes, the top four or five are strong candidates and I'd generally prefer a Henderson or O'Brien horse over a Pipe one too but Adagio is simply lobbed in on his hurdles form. It's just a question of how much of that ability he can translate back to the Flat. He's also bred for a trip and surely soft ground, if that's what it ends up being, will help too, being German bred.

When Buzz won last year he was rated 155 over hurdles and 96 on the Flat. He was a very comfortable winner. At 152/87, adagio is theoretically even better treated. Anyroads, I've gone in pretty heftily at 13/2 (boosted) as he could shorten again and Pipe isn't averse to putting up a strong claimer.

I'm also swithering about a 40/1 shot but might need to monitor the betting in case it drifts a wee bit through the week. I'd also prefer to back it in the market without Adagio if I can find a bookie offering it.

Edit - fuckit, I've gone in anyway at 40/1 (5 places) plus a small win bet on the exchange at 60 on Withhold. He won a very valuable handicap in 2019 off 107 and has worked his way back down to 98 here. He bombed in this race last year (won it back in 2017 on his way through the ranks) and is capable of doing that but, overall, he strikes me as very well handicapped and there was not much wrong with his first two runs this season off 106 and 105.
 
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Yes Waterville I have 12s on him in an anti post bet I did before Slim broke my heart and told me he wouldn't run.

See what happens eh.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I haven't really thought much about this race so far. I probably have, but can't remember, checked out the entries, but this piece in the RP today caught my attention:

How did he get there? The Cesarewitch market mover into 5-1 from 25s | Horse Racing News | Racing Post

So it seems Pricewise put the horse up recently and I have to say I'm kicking myself a bit for not beating him to it.

Adagio is rated 152 over hurdles. That should equate to around 110 on the Flat but he's getting in off just 87. And hurdlers tend to do very well in the Ces.

He's 6/1 with Sky at the moment. If he's still that price after the 5-day decs come out today I'll be re-investing a fair chunk of my weekend winnings.
Click to expand...

Adagio won't stay.
 
Marb said:
Yes Waterville I have 12s on him in an anti post bet I did before Slim broke my heart and told me he wouldn't run.

See what happens eh.
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I've no idea if he's running but it's a distinct possibility now.
 
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I backed Adagio all last season so if he’s running I’ve got to back him. Can’t have another Raising Sands disaster ( who won again without me backing him). Henderson’s horses are running well at the moment.
 
There are some arguments that Favorite Moon could go well (and maybe finish 2nd to Waterville, if he goes).

Partly taking into account the Galway 25th July hurdle form (only a length or so off Lot Of Joy). But we're also looking at a Randwick group 3 winner not all that long ago. Recent Downpatrick maiden win potentially illustrates general well-being (though that race looked weakish to me)

But think the supposed rain for tomorrow does need to come pretty heavily, and ideally through Friday as well.

Sky's 25-1 disappeared last night. 20s Hills now, the rest 16. Pretty short IMO, especially given it's unlikely to be soft.


@Moehat Kicking myself too that I missed RS twice, shameful!!
 
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@Moehat Kicking myself too that I missed RS twice, shameful!![/QUOTE]

Me too.especially last time.
 
Slim said:
The bet in the race if Waterville doesn't run is Run For Oscar.
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Agree with this. The way he finished his last two races bodes well for the extra distance and the way he hosed up at Listowel a year ago off an IHRB rating off 133, admittedly with a 7lb claimer on board means he still looks well treated off 90 compared to an adjusted c. 140 hurdles rating (BHA gave him 147 when disappointing in the Bet365 hurdle)
 
I backed it on Monday after the 5-day decs came out so it was ante-post rules. Technically, therefore, it's a loser. My only hope is that the bookies decide that due to the unusual circumstances they'll refund stakes as a goodwill gesture.

But I won't be holding my breath.
 
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I see Inchicore runs and is shorter in the betting than she was. I have mentioned her a few times this season and maybe last season aswell. I'm not sure though. The Byrnes runner must have a big chance and Vino Victrix looks a big improver.

I am tempted to leave the race alone and play reverse forecasts on tricasts on the above three just for fun.
 
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He was down to ride but I think he had a rethink when Willie asked him. He's more likely to be better off riding for Willie ,than for Nicky, in the long run.
 
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