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2023 Classic Crop

E

edgt

Senior Jockey
Joined
Mar 25, 2011
Messages
6,016
Location
North Cork. Home of steeple chasing
Apart from the 1000/2000 Gns thread we have given little attention to what must be the best classic crop in years.
We have two double classic winners in Blue Rose Cen and Auguste Rodin, Tahiyra unlucky not to be one also.
Paddington has made claim to be best of the lot, having won a proper race yesterday.
Ace Impact has shown his mettle and with King Of Steel 120 and rising the older crop will have to be at their best to win any all aged Group 1 once ground conditions allow for a fair result.
Chaldean has disappointed today but he may have his reasons.
Shaquille and Little Big Bear head July Cup betting to add to the story.
What is not to like ?
 
Blue Rose Cen might be a superstar in the making and even allowing for Chaldean not running his race, the likes of Charyn couldn't have been far off his best but miles off the front two.

The Guineas was average on my figures, AR at the top end of average in the Derby but worth a big mark-up and the Irish Derby might be worth taking none too seriously.

Paddington has beaten a top older horse in the Eclipse so he looks genuinely top class and I think AR is too but that's flimsy evidence to be applying to a crop.

On Saturday Marshman couldn't get near the leaders in a G3 when fav to beat them but Ramazan made mincemeat of established handicappers.

We'll know more once the 3yos take on their elders in the G1s but are the elders that good in general?
 
We have enough older horses, Westover, Desert Crown, Luxembourg, Pyle Driver, Bay Bridge, Mostahdaf, Emily Upjohn etc to test the mettle of the Classic Crop whatever racing conditions are not to mention milers and sprinters well up to the task.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Blue Rose Cen might be a superstar in the making and even allowing for Chaldean not running his race, the likes of Charyn couldn't have been far off his best but miles off the front two.

The Guineas was average on my figures, AR at the top end of average in the Derby but worth a big mark-up and the Irish Derby might be worth taking none too seriously.

Paddington has beaten a top older horse in the Eclipse so he looks genuinely top class and I think AR is too but that's flimsy evidence to be applying to a crop.

On Saturday Marshman couldn't get near the leaders in a G3 when fav to beat them but Ramazan made mincemeat of established handicappers.

We'll know more once the 3yos take on their elders in the G1s but are the elders that good in general?
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Chaldean finished Lb for Lb with Charyn and Hi Royal...he ran his race, simply not good enough
 
Maxbet said:
Chaldean finished Lb for Lb with Charyn and Hi Royal...he ran his race, simply not good enough
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No, there's got to be more to it than that.

At Nwmkt he beat Hi Royal 4lbs and Charyn 24lbs; at Ascot he beat Charyn 1lb but was due a 3lbs+ mark-up after going too early.

Charyn is the one who has improved since Nwm and is roughly on a par with Hi Royal so I can see the argument but how do you then account for Indestructable (OR111) and Shouldvebeenaring (110) finishing in front of them all the other day? They're the ones who have run pound for pound to their ratings and arguably the most reliable guide to the form, being well beaten themselves but they put the winner on 128? Are people prepared to believe that rating for a 24/1 winner?

To me it was obvious watching the race live that Chaldean was off the bit far too early to be giving his running. To be honest, I wasn't watching Hi Royal but I was also accepting the fact that Charyn (carryng my money) wasn't getting into the race the way I'd have liked to see.

I see RPRs haven't even come up with figures so far. The compilers are probably trying to get their head round what exactly happened.
 
I'm not arguing in anybody's favour, though. I'm arguing for the search for the truth of the matter (and is there really any need for an attempt at a cheap pop?)

Simon Rowlands now has his piece up on ATR:

Sectional Spotlight | At The Races

I'd take this statement very much on board:

"whatever you make of the winner Good Guess (and I think you should make quite a bit of him), you end up with several of his rivals running inexplicably poorly."

By the way, reet, did something I've said in the past give the impression I'm a fan of Chaldean? Why would I argue in his favour?

You've lost me there, I'm afraid.
 
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Re Chaldean
1 The 2000 Gns is considered the last two year old race by some.
Chaldean did not develop hugely from 2 to 3.
Maybe that lack of development is now showing and will show more more his next run, if he has one.
or
2 He had an off day Sunday which will be shown in his next run.
Jury is out for now ; those who gave Auguste Rodin a second chance after Newmarket were rewarded, those of us who did not are licking our personal bits ( in private, of course).
 
Desert Orchid said:
No, there's got to be more to it than that.

At Nwmkt he beat Hi Royal 4lbs and Charyn 24lbs; at Ascot he beat Charyn 1lb but was due a 3lbs+ mark-up after going too early.

Charyn is the one who has improved since Nwm and is roughly on a par with Hi Royal so I can see the argument but how do you then account for Indestructable (OR111) and Shouldvebeenaring (110) finishing in front of them all the other day? They're the ones who have run pound for pound to their ratings and arguably the most reliable guide to the form, being well beaten themselves but they put the winner on 128? Are people prepared to believe that rating for a 24/1 winner?
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Indestructible weakened late on in the guineas and has improved for dropping a furlong. Shouldvebeenaring has been sprinting and was never seen with a chance in the commonwealth drawn wide, he too has improved for the extra furlong. They went the wrong way with Chaldean all because Dettori said he showed great speed. He said that cause he f**cked up. Should have stayed with the original plan, Sussex...
 
Maxbet said:
Indestructible weakened late on in the guineas and has improved for dropping a furlong. Shouldvebeenaring has been sprinting and was never seen with a chance in the commonwealth drawn wide, he too has improved for the extra furlong.
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I'm open to that possibility.

Maxbet said:
They went the wrong way with Chaldean all because Dettori said he showed great speed.
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Again, it's possible but, for me, at the unlikely end of the spectrum. I said it on here at the time that when C ran without the jockey in theh Greenham he appeared not to get home, and that was without a jockey. I think it was jinnyj who replied that maybe the horse wasn't forcing itself into any great effort but I much prefer to see riderless horses pass and run away from the others late on (in the belief that it shows willingness to go ahead). So I was surprised when he won the Guineas but maybe it wasn't a good renewal. All possible.



Maxbet said:
Should have stayed with the original plan, Sussex...
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There's still time for them to go to Goodwood. The trip there would suit a doubtful stayer.

We'll just have to wait and see how the Jean Prat form works out going forward. I have a very open mind but I do think the winner looked very good and I think the numbers will up the visuals.
 
Desert Orchid said:
We'll just have to wait and see how the Jean Prat form works out going forward. I have a very open mind but I do think the winner looked very good and I think the numbers will up the visuals.
Click to expand...

Baring in mind that Breizh Sky had beaten the winner the previous twice. Do you think he improved, and/or that Breizh Sky didn't run his best or was given a lot to do?
 
Frankel said:
Baring in mind that Breizh Sky had beaten the winner the previous twice. Do you think he improved, and/or that Breizh Sky didn't run his best or was given a lot to do?
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It looks like he's improved away from him but it might just be one of those freak results. I haven't studied the race in depth.
 
reet hard said:
Bovine droppings! Are you really that fragile?
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Why would you ask the question in the first place other than to insult by inferring such a lack of knowledge? We don't exactly have a history of joking with each other.

If it was a genuine attempt at a joke then I apologise for reading it wrongly but I reckon I have the right to defend myself against insults. They do nothing for the flow of the forum.
 
Maxbet said:
I think there was a track bias over to the left of where Chaldean ran, all the way to the rail.
Click to expand...

I haven't read of that theory anywhere else so would need to look back through all the races for evidence and, to be honest, it's not something I'd feel inclined to do.
 

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