2024 Grand National

I'm interested in Eldorado Allen for each way purposes, despite his run at Cheltenham, where according to Joe Tizzard he made a respiratory noise. He's a remarkable horse, all things considered. He places in an Arkle as a novice. The past two seasons he's loads of good form, whether in Haldon Gold Cups, Betfair Chases, or Hennessy's.

It was actually this seasons Hennessy where he was a staying on fourth that's interesting.

I recall the season before he ran well at Aintree, but stopped quickly towards the business end over three miles. Anyway, at Newbury he was the one horse finishing really well.

He ran poorly in a handicap hurdle before Cheltenham this season, but that can't be taken too seriously. They could have been protecting his handicap mark.

Then he has a wind operation and gets pulled up at Cheltenham.

I would be looking to give him another chance second time after the wind operation, just in the hope it could help bring about what I reckon, is the 10lbs to 14lbs improvement he'd need to be competitive at the business end of a Grand National, assuming he could stay of course.

I wouldn't mind seeing a bulletin off Joe Tizzard nearer the time before committing. I see several firms are now NRNB anyway.

I can always back one or two more for the race.

I guess a lot depends on how he comes out of the race at Cheltenham and whether he might have needed the run, then can improve again for a wind operation, or whether he's now too old and past it.
 
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I did a trawl of the first 60 entries over the last day or two.

It could be a brilliant race if the best-handicapped ones stand their ground, in which case not many below #60 might make the cut.
 
One of my season-long fancies, Salvador Ziggy, won't qualify. He's not fulfilled one of the conditions, viz of having at least 6 chase runs. He's been an expensive horse for me.
 
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4 visits 3 wins and as forecast a 3rd in the Gold Cup.

As mentioned the consistency is uncanny

I expect nothing less at Aintree:- 2 from 2 so far and to go 3 from 3 it will take an Act of God to stop him
 
Gavin looks well hcapped if he can get past the first fence.24 lb better off with CR.
 
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Outsider said:
Gavin looks well hcapped if he can get past the first fence.24 lb better off with CR.
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Yes, I backed Galvin the day the weights came out. I have huge respect for Corach Rambler but won't be backing him until the day (or near enough) and probably then just as cover for all the other bets.

My ratings tend to be around 5lbs higher than RPRs but, even so, the number of horses, the vast majority of which are trained in Ireland, with figures higher than 160 getting in off 150 and lower is bordering on the ridiculous.

For me, all this gas about the race not being what it was is arse-gas. The fences are still big and require more jumping than park course fences, adrenaline, both equine and human, makes for a strong pace and the insistence by the course on softening the ground makes it still a special test of speed and stamina, in other words, class.

But recent years in particular have seen the trend towards class participants grow tremendously. It has become arguably the classiest handicap of the entire season and rightly so given the prize on offer.
 
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Looks like a couple of those likely to otherwise make the cut will not be qualified to run.

Ash Tree Meadow (not placed at 3m or more) and Salvador Ziggy (only 5 chases).

That's two of Elliott's we can scrub.

Edit - and Favori De Champdou, also from Elliott's, only 4 chase runs.
 
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No, the deadline is March 26 (so I assume that's the next declaration stage before the 5-day decs) so won't make it.

I love the IGN. It has been very good to me in recent years and I will have the chance to have a good look at it before buggering off to Spain for three weeks next Sunday.
 
Advance going report issued this morning:

Chase - MILDMAY
Soft

Hurdle - MILDMAY
Soft

Chase - NATIONAL
Soft, Heavy (in places)


Weather:

Forecast: An unsettled outlook with some more persistent rain
towards the end of the week. Remaining unsettled into next week.
 
Double J said:
Just back Chemical Energy
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May not stay in the ground and it would be unusual to win the GN from a long layoff. That being said he is on my shortlist, but would want to evaluate the price versus the going a bit nearer the time.
 
ep1987 said:
May not stay in the ground and it would be unusual to win the GN from a long layoff. That being said he is on my shortlist, but would want to evaluate the price versus the going a bit nearer the time.
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Form in the book vs Galliard.

Staying would be my biggest concern. Chanced a few quid at 36 on exchange.
 
Not hard to imagine the race being run on soft or heavy ground-you could rule out three quarters of the field if that happens.
 
LUKE said:
Not hard to imagine the race being run on soft or heavy ground-you could rule out three quarters of the field if that happens.
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Which will end up with a racing certainty on the day like Earth Summit or a complete fluke like Red Marauder!
 
I meant to say last week that Corach Rambler - unless I missed something - was halved in price.

At the time, my recollection is that it was generally 8/1 at oddschecker but I think it was following a very upbeat report from Russell in the days after the Gold Cup, I checked again and it was in to 4s generally.

It's officially well in, obviously, and on my figures by a lot more than the official 3lbs. I Am Maximus is also officially very well in but it doesn't show on the RP card, presumably because it is Irish.

I did my first re-trawl of the weights yesterday since Conflated went up to 11-12 and have to say I'm very encouraged by how Galvin is sitting on the figures. I was also very encouraged that Run Wild Fred skipped the Irish National last week.

Can anyone offer encouragement about Shakem Up'Arry's chances of staying? If he makes the cut he is another who looks very interestingly handicapped. His two Cheltenham wins recently are looking like very good form.
 
DO - As well as CR being well in, I do like the fact that it's been a month since CR's Gold Cup run. I think that it's usually 3 weeks between the GC & GN
 
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LUKE said:
It is but he had an unnaturally hard race at Cheltenham.
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You had him right last year, Luke.

What's your pick for this year, I'm intrigued.

I quite liked Eldorado Allen's staying on fourth in the Hennessy, and they've done his wind now. But really soft or heavy ground would seriously concern me.
 
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