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2025 County (Handicap) Hurdle

Although he got outpaced and well behind, before belatedly staying on for a somewhat remote third place in the "Schweppes," I still think Navajo Indy reserves his best form for Newbury.

I'll have more of a view on this race once I see the weights - I can pretty much guess what they will be, but I like to see it in black and white.
 
Race of the week for me, with more possible plots, than you could shake a stick at - so much depends on one yard's running plans.
 
I love it when I read someone saying Horse X has been “laid out” for Y handicap at the Cheltenham Festival. Yeah, mate, along with 23 other horses in the same bloody race!
 
I actually don't believe all of the runners in the County will have been plotted up for it. Some will run because they fall within the ratings range and their connections will want a runner in the race.

But there are still probably double figures numbers who have been aimed at it most if not all season and there will be another two or three who have been aimed at it for longer than that, especially first-season novices or very lightly raced second-season ones. Willie Mullins's sheer strength in depth means he can identify something that would get placed in a Supreme if he trained it accordingly but he keeps it to diddy races to get it in off a mark in the 130s.

I do think one or two UK trainers are now doing likewise and the likes of Hendo who also tends to have strength in depth is more than capable of doing likewise.

I have to say, I do like finding these but I also like when something that has been campaigned entirely honestly just keeps defying the handicapper.
 
I find it interesting that Burdett Road has been left in this despite his existing engagement at the six-day stage in the Champion Hurdle.
 
Only 16 runners is disappointing ( perhaps the novice number of runs rule playing a part ) but not the first big 2 mile handicap hurdle with a smallish field this year . Kargese looks very well in but Absurde is not to be discounted IMO.
 
I can't have Absurde beat in this.

I bet it (under the odds!) when it won last year when it overcame ground that wouldn't have suited it (much better surface probable this year) to win.

That was off OR 138 and it's only 8lb higher on 146 this time.

"Only, Uncle Smartarse? You been at the Tiramisu and feeling tipsy?"

Yeah, only.

Absurde is OR 110 on the Flat and has since finished 1.75l fifth in a Melbourne Cup.

I'm aware Townsend has jumped off him to ride Kargesse, but she didn't really impress me at Ascot and I don't entirely buy into the idea she's thrown in off 141.

She can win without my money on her, anyway.

Valgrand has fallen in the weights, McLaurey has to be respected and Lark In The Morning is being backed as if he's already won it, but the apparent Mullins yard second-string will do for me.
 
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My take, written on Wednesday (missed the price on Our Champ as I greedily thought it might go to 80s or 100s so I've lost out there. I might still back it and I might use Kargese to cover my other bets:

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I’ve backed Valgrand for this. Previous Skelton winners have been kept away from the track that calendar year ahead of the race and this is a first-season novice who could find another 10lbs, which would be handy if my figure proves too good to be true. Valgrand went up to 140 when running well and it’s possible they reckoned that was lenient but why not get another few pounds off for this. Take him out of the equation and there’s only 6lbs between all the rest and that can be accounted for by luck in running. However, McLaurey, who won for us last time, is also a first-season novice entitled to find 10bs so I rate him the biggest danger. I’m not sure how much Irish Panther can find. Even though he’s technically a second-season novice he’s older than normal for that type. Our Champ is overpriced and worth some sweetie money. I suspect Kargese has been targeting this since last year’s Triumph and I expect her to find another 10lbs as well but I can’t back her at 7/2. Ethical Diamond somewhat played his hand last time in a modest race. I don’t imagine they expected him to go up to 143 for beating modest maidens. Ndaawi was a good third in the Fred Winter and could find 10lbs as could the winner of that race Lark In The Mornin. I can’t fancy any of the others to improve enough and I can see a figure closer to 170 being needed to win this so my short list is Valgrand and McLaurey with Pinot Gris and Ndaawi as back up and Our Champ as a fanciful longshot.
 
Valgrand and Our Champ for me too. Agree Valgrand looks like he’s been laid out for this and the last two efforts look very half-hearted. Maybe Skelton hatched a plot for this race after the horse was firmly put in his place by Potters Charm following his earlier demolition job at Cheltenham in October

Once again following Our Champ over a cliff and like you I missed the price as he’s been backed in to 25s this morning from 40s overnight
 
Skelton’s earlier comments.

Valgrand
William Hill County Handicap Hurdle, 10-1

His chance in the County hinges on what the ground is. Soft ground is not for him at all, but if it starts to dry out by Friday, he'd come into the reckoning. He tried two and a half miles against stronger opposition and carried top weight in handicaps on soft ground and hasn't been up to it, but I think on decent ground and as a fresh horse, he'd have a bit of a squeak. I'm not saying he's going to go there and win, but he's definitely got a chance.
 
Apt that Danny Mullins is riding Absurde after the ride he gave Jungle Boogie. Hope he rides this one more like he did Jimmy du Seuil.
 
Desert Orchid said:
My take, written on Wednesday (missed the price on Our Champ as I greedily thought it might go to 80s or 100s so I've lost out there. I might still back it and I might use Kargese to cover my other bets:

View attachment 24009

I’ve backed Valgrand for this. Previous Skelton winners have been kept away from the track that calendar year ahead of the race and this is a first-season novice who could find another 10lbs, which would be handy if my figure proves too good to be true. Valgrand went up to 140 when running well and it’s possible they reckoned that was lenient but why not get another few pounds off for this. Take him out of the equation and there’s only 6lbs between all the rest and that can be accounted for by luck in running. However, McLaurey, who won for us last time, is also a first-season novice entitled to find 10bs so I rate him the biggest danger. I’m not sure how much Irish Panther can find. Even though he’s technically a second-season novice he’s older than normal for that type. Our Champ is overpriced and worth some sweetie money. I suspect Kargese has been targeting this since last year’s Triumph and I expect her to find another 10lbs as well but I can’t back her at 7/2. Ethical Diamond somewhat played his hand last time in a modest race. I don’t imagine they expected him to go up to 143 for beating modest maidens. Ndaawi was a good third in the Fred Winter and could find 10lbs as could the winner of that race Lark In The Mornin. I can’t fancy any of the others to improve enough and I can see a figure closer to 170 being needed to win this so my short list is Valgrand and McLaurey with Pinot Gris and Ndaawi as back up and Our Champ as a fanciful longshot.
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viking said:
Valgrand and Our Champ for me too. Agree Valgrand looks like he’s been laid out for this and the last two efforts look very half-hearted. Maybe Skelton hatched a plot for this race after the horse was firmly put in his place by Potters Charm following his earlier demolition job at Cheltenham in October

Once again following Our Champ over a cliff and like you I missed the price as he’s been backed in to 25s this morning from 40s overnight
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I heard Dan Skelton say several months ago that Valgrand was one that he was looking forward to running in big races later in the season. The other was Panic Attack whose form is 3312 this season with her last run on 8th February.
I'll also mention Hansard (12/1) which missed the valuable race at Newbury and the Imperial Cup, and bumped into the two in the Kingwell at Wincanton which went on to finish 1/2 ( fortuitously) in the Champion Hurdle.
 
Hansard must certainly be worth a try. I thought he had more than a shout approaching 2 out in the Kingwell, and the first 2 are pretty good horses.

That Windsor race wasn't the best performance but the horses all around him have done pretty well since. Beat The Bat was 4th in the Coral Cup, Cracking Rhapsody won the Morebattle, and Go Dante the Imperial.

First time at Cheltenham but I think it might suit. Fingers crossed.
 

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