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2025 Melbourne Cup - Race Prediction, Tips, Picks, & Expert Thoughts on Which Horse Will Win On The Day

C

chaumi

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Oct 7, 2012
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Clearly, the market leaders here - including the likes of Al Riffa - have great chances of winning.

But, as is my typical wont, I want something at juicy enough odds. And one that arguably fits the bill is Athabascan.

  • Seems he gets a definite run with 8-2. You could argue there's a picture painted with Al Riffa on over a stone more.
  • Had an excellent run in the 12f Group 2 last Saturday (generally 100-1 before that race and 320 odd on the Exchange, perhaps surprisingly now still 100s with some and 160 BF)
  • Fought hard in that race near-finish, with only OneSmoothOperator catching him out coming down the outside. Wasn't that much between them at the line, and not hard to see that being reversed.
  • The improved run last week wasn't unexpected - the target would always have been the big race.
  • Athabascan has (only) had two goes at 2 miles - a 5th and a 2nd in two Group 1s. Got pulled on the eve of the race last year by the vets - a bitter disappointment to connections, no doubt.

Connections seem to think they have strong prospects of a top 5 run, he's not far off being a proven Group 1 performer with several close-ish top level runs, and there seems less than a 100-1/160-1 chance he'll be finishing well enough over the tough Melbourne 2 miles to expose any limitations in the more fancied runners.


***ofc 'expert' in the subject line is more referring to some who might follow this up :)
 
Hardly "expert," but I've noticed over the years the Melbourne Cup is a handicap contested by many unproven at 2m in a country with a rich history of quality sprinters which nevertheless reveres a contest run over almost three times as far as the likes of Black Caviar et al used to race over.

As such, I'd prefer a trip to the dentists for root canal treatment performed by Doctor Wa Lsworth, famed for tucking his shirt into his underpants while excitedly clutching the drill, to trying to solve this annual antipodean nightmare.

Good luck all!
 
Oh I love it. Even when I was still working I used to stay up all night listening to it on the radio, pretending I was there. We were going to go one year but I wouldn’t leave my dog for several weeks as she was getting old and had health problems. I still sometimes listen to Radio Sport 927 and imagine that I’m in the outback.
 
I used to crawl into work saying ‘g’day’ to all the patients humming ‘ I’m Peter the possum man’ throughout the day. What is a bit depressing is that I can’t believe it’s been a year since the last one.
 
I've paid the tenner monthly Attheraces subscription just to watch this race the last couple of years. I'll probably do it again and have a good bet in this event.
 
The Fortune Teller said:
I've paid the tenner monthly Attheraces subscription just to watch this race the last couple of years. I'll probably do it again and have a good bet in this event.
Click to expand...
Pretty sure I watched the Group Two last week for free here...

Live Vision | RACING.COM - Where Racing Lives

It was at Moonee, so you'd have to test it out with a Melbourne race to be sure. But also remember it could get flooded with requests on the day.

+ I'd be surprised if BF won't let you watch it for a 2 quid bet, maybe even 1.
 
So according to ATR on Facebook, Chapman talking to AOB about the fact that Scandinavia actually failed his pre-trip scans for the MC. Didn't this happen last year too?
 
I've done Absurde 16/1 and a pound ew on Chaumi's 100/1.
I see Vauban is trained in Australia now but hasn't run since last year's race.25/1.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Torrazino is in the form of his life - if equally effective over 2m in this he might run alright.

40 currently to small money on the machine.

Betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/international/melbourne-cup/winner
Click to expand...
He's been on The Teller's radar for a few days.
I'm also thinking Flatten The Curve is on a very upward curve.
I may well split stakes on these two, both e/w of course.
With a saver on Athabascan too, and a good prayer for Onesmoothoperator for the Geordie boy, doing it large, Brian Ellison.
 
chaumi said:
Pretty sure I watched the Group Two last week for free here...

Live Vision | RACING.COM - Where Racing Lives

It was at Moonee, so you'd have to test it out with a Melbourne race to be sure. But also remember it could get flooded with requests on the day.

+ I'd be surprised if BF won't let you watch it for a 2 quid bet, maybe even 1.
Click to expand...
Quite a reliable link for free race streams
 
Outsider said:
I've done Absurde 16/1 and a pound ew on Chaumi's 100/1.
I see Vauban is trained in Australia now but hasn't run since last year's race.25/1.
Click to expand...
Vauban has run but the results aren't on sporting life.
But he disappointed connections last time.
 
Gear changes.

Al riffa standard bit 1st time.
vauban Cross over nose band again.tounge tie again.
Chevalier Rose. Ear muffs (pre race)1st time.standard bit first time.
land legend Cross over noseband again.ear muffs off 1st time.lugging bit 1st time.
Norton bit off 1st time.
changingoftheguard. Blinkers1st time.
Goodie two shoes concussion plates (front) Cross over noseband 1st time.
Standard bit 1st time.tongue tie first time.

Joseph leaving no stone unturned with goodie two shoes :D
I was thinking about an ew bet on Land Legend 8th last year and J.Moreira booked but its recent form is dire.
question for Jinny or anyone?
whats a lugging bit?whats a norton bit?whats a standard bit?
what does a Cross noseband do to help?
 
I imagine a lugging bit stops him lugging (hanging)? I have found this for you as I hadn't heard of a Norton bit but this video explains racing bits nicely:


A cross noseband (sometimes a Grakle named after the horse it was invented for) is like a figure of eight noseband that has the effect of keeping a horse's mouth shut and as a result it means the horse tends to accept a bit better with a noseband on that keeps his mouth shut. I used to run in a flash noseband which was a milder version. Also if a horse's mouth is shut, it should mean that the tongue stays in place better and isn't going to allow the soft palate to displace thus interfering with the breathing. Sorry that's not very well explained...
 

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