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2025 Ultima Handicap Chase

Yes agreed.

I'm not sure if someone of 'influence' has put up The Changing Man, as he's now into only 6s fav with some firms.

I think he will split punters opinion between the 'he's got good form and still improving camp' which I'm in, and the 'he's an absolute hound who won't get up the hill' camp.

I should add I've 500 on him at 25s on the nose in the forums ante post competition, but in this instance art hasn't imitated real life, because I didn't back it up with any real cash.

I think I might still get double figure prices on the day, once the, 'he won't get up the hill' mob really gain momentum. 🤣

And after all, we still can't actually rule out the possibility Joey sends him for the Grade 1 Novice Chase.

Which again, would be the worst racing decision by a trainer in the recent history of this sport.

Now, fire away with your anaylisis chaps....🤣
 
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Ian_Davies said:
I will certainly be interested to see how Maurice's Stay Away Fay gets on off 150 in this if this is its target.
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I don't think the brother accesses the RP site on his iPad/tablet thingy so I presume he's been in the bookie's today to read the RP (pretty much his only reason for going in) and he's just phoned to say Nicholls was quoted as saying he'd think about SAF's GN hopes after the Ultima so it would at least seem that that is the plan.

The brother also said (it's at the RP site too) that Cobden has opted for KK in the National but the brother insists Nicholls said who'd be on BMG "that guy that rides in France" but he didn't seem sure of the name so maybe James Reveley, James Best or Felix de Giles. Either one would be fine by me but not all three as 30st might be a tad difficult to humph round Aintree.
 
It's KK Cobden, B James Reveley, Hitman Freddie Gingell, Threeunderfive Skelton and Stay Away Fay yet to be confirmed (they want a bloke called Maurice, but he isn't answering his phone) - I might have made the bit in brackets up.
 
Cheers, Ian. I just found another RP link to that info and was coming on to confirm it. Quite happy with Reveley for BMG.

You're half right about Nicholls phoning me! I don't usually answer my phone :ROFLMAO:

I usually keep it on silent and if I recognise a number I'll phone them back. I don't liked being pinged or rung (or wrung).
 
Racing Post: The Joe Tizzard-trained The Changing Man was backed into 6-1 (from 8) clear favourite with Ladbrokes for the Ultima Handicap Chase after the weights were revealed.

The 24-length winner of the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices' Chase at Ascot on his last start, after three consecutive runner-up finishes in handicaps, the eight-year-old has proved popular off a mark of 140.

And his trainer spoke highly of his chances.

“He’ll run in the Ultima," said Tizzard. "He has finished second in some decent handicaps, but I’m glad he got his head in front last time. He’s versatile ground-wise and off 10st 11lb hopefully he should be competitive.”

There was confidence against him from the Broadway Boy camp for the Ultima.

The Coral Gold Cup runner-up was sent off the odds-on favourite for a 3m1½f handicap chase at Cheltenham on New Year's Day, but could finish only fourth of five behind Chantry House.

But connections of the Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained seven-year-old are undeterred.

“He’d be one of our best chances at the festival,” said assistant trainer Willy Twiston-Davies. “He’s off 150 and was unlucky not to win the Coral Gold Cup. He’s in the form of his life now after his bad run in January, he’s had his knees medicated since. I struggle to think what’s better than him really.”
 
Jonjo has pulled a few strokes at the Festival in his time. on the book they look to have no chance but on the day...well that's an entirely different matter.

He has laid out JP's Jonnywho for this who apparently has been showing much improved form at home and a big show can be expected. The bookies aren't taking any chances and he is now best priced at 10/1 NRNB but mainly 8/1. Bet365 are offering 10/1 ew 5 places
 
Tanlic said:
Jonjo has pulled a few strokes at the Festival in his time. on the book they look to have no chance but on the day...well that's an entirely different matter.

He has laid out JP's Jonnywho for this who apparently has been showing much improved form at home and a big show can be expected. The bookies aren't taking any chances and he is now best priced at 10/1 NRNB but mainly 8/1. Bet365 are offering 10/1 ew 5 places
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I don't think he's in this race anymore, Tan.

The Tizzards will be happy.

That's one less to worry about.
 
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Tanlic said:
Jonjo has pulled a few strokes at the Festival in his time. on the book they look to have no chance but on the day...well that's an entirely different matter.

He has laid out JP's Jonnywho for this who apparently has been showing much improved form at home and a big show can be expected. The bookies aren't taking any chances and he is now best priced at 10/1 NRNB but mainly 8/1. Bet365 are offering 10/1 ew 5 places
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Derek O'Connor has said that he rides Johnnywho in the Kim Muir. Gone to 5/1 favourite for that apparently.
 
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tiggers1972 said:
Isn't Johnnywho a first time out merchant?
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Hi did win at Carlisle after a break but you couldn't say he's been campaigned that way....to many bad runs and no attempt to give him a break ....I heard he had been working well and thought about backing him but now that he has been switched I wouldn't be interested 4/1...crazy price
 
I've had my first look at the race.

It could be the case that this year's renewal revolves around one horse: Katate Dori.

I want to dig a bit more but the more I look at that Kempton form and try and get my head round it the more I think it might be the strongest handicap form of the season.

There's a case for arguing that the race fell apart and when you see how many didn't finish it makes some sense, but the ground wasn't the kind of soft ground that has them finishing like furlong markers yet they did, in a race that can often produce close finishes even in soft.

The runner up could have been a Hendo special, beaten 15 lengths by the winner who looked to be going very easily and the third, a further 11 lengths away was in the form of his life and the choice of the stable jockey.

I think the winner surprised the connections even if Pricewise might have got word that it might be a good one since he sparked a real gamble on it.

It did get quite a hike (12lb) for it but the runner-up could have got that if you take the winner out of the equation.

I need to think and dig a bit more.
 
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You know, Mullins has the lowest in the handicap with Iris Emery . Huge price , so won't win, right?
Well, I'm looking at her 3/4 2nd to Croke Park and then her OR of 125 and I'm thinking surely it's too good to be true, Mo. That Croke Park run was on good ground and if the going at Chelt continues to dry out, well. 40/1 PP (but only 3 places). 5 places with 365 @ 33's NRNB.
 
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yorick said:
You know, Mullins has the lowest in the handicap with Iris Emery . Huge price , so won't win, right?
Well, I'm looking at her 3/4 2nd to Croke Park and then her OR of 125 and I'm thinking surely it's too good to be true, Mo. That Croke Park run was on good ground and if the going at Chelt continues to dry out, well. 40/1 PP (but only 3 places). 5 places with 365 @ 33's NRNB.
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I noticed. She had a run over a marathon trip earlier in the season so I was thinking the Irish National might be the target.
 
I still haven't backed KD yet but I have backed something else - Malina Girl (w 14/1). Her form became inconsistent after a bright start last season but early on she hacked up at Cheltenham off 135 for which she went up to 146 and then was hacking all over a better field in a £100k handicap won by Broadway Boy (who went up to 150 for the win) at levels when she came down three out. I reckon she would have won quite easily and gone up to at least 150. I wonder if the fall affected her confidence because it was after that that she lost her way. She had over eight months before returning just in January there and took a big step forward next time at Exeter in a fair Mares' chase. If that was her on the way back and she can come on again for it then she has the winning of this on her best form although she will be vulnerable to younger improvers. I just wanted her onside.
 
As stated on the day, I had money on Katate Dori at Kempton and what swung it for him in my view was the rain-softened ground.

I'll be ignoring literally everything the CoC says and relying on the stick readings and my own data to ascertain if he will get his ground again in this.

Crebilly is 2lb below the mark off which he was a staying on 1.25l second in the old Mildmay Of Flete last year.

He arguably looked a non-stayer at this sort of trip Aintree subsequently, but I just wonder.

He's only an 8yo and if he's declared on Sunday that tells me this has been the plan all along, the same as it's now clear the Kim Muir was always the plan for Johnnywho.

McManus's horses off look a bit short in the betting for races like this, but they sometimes get shorter still and win as they please - like their facile Kim Muir winner last year who will most probably get in the frame in the Cheltenham Gold Cup a week today.

I've not had a bet in the race yet, but Crebilly is the one I'm interested in at the moment.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I still haven't backed KD yet but I have backed something else - Malina Girl (w 14/1). Her form became inconsistent after a bright start last season but early on she hacked up at Cheltenham off 135 for which she went up to 146 and then was hacking all over a better field in a £100k handicap won by Broadway Boy (who went up to 150 for the win) at levels when she came down three out. I reckon she would have won quite easily and gone up to at least 150. I wonder if the fall affected her confidence because it was after that that she lost her way. She had over eight months before returning just in January there and took a big step forward next time at Exeter in a fair Mares' chase. If that was her on the way back and she can come on again for it then she has the winning of this on her best form although she will be vulnerable to younger improvers. I just wanted her onside.
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I have to agree D. Also I'm keen on King turgeon was btn a sh HD by karate dori giving it 20lb.and n9w receives weight.
 
Richmond Lake 50/1 NRNB with William Hill has run some decent races in his time.
I've always thought one day he could win one of these handicaps.
So I will have a few quid on and cross my fingers again
 
24 declared....

Trelawne
Farouk D’Alene
Broadway Boy
Zanahiyr
Stay Away Fay
Victtorino
Search For Glory
Henry’s Friend
Sequestered
Famous Bridge
Richmond Lake
Malina Girl
The Changing Man
Happygolucky
King Turgeon
Grandeur D’Ame
Crebilly
Katate Dori
Whistle Stop Tour
Frero Banbou
Guard Your Dreams
The Short Go
Myretown
Straw Fan Jack

I will add a betting link as soon as I see one on Oddschecker.
 

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