4.40 Musselburgh

EC1

EC1

On a break
Joined
May 7, 2007
Messages
17,679
Location
late 1960's early 70's
race is a bit of a pace standout which is reason for posting up - looks like being a real pace burn up so might be some value in this with the late arrivers on teh scene

the on pace horses

VERINCO
HOWARDS PRINCE
MANDARIN SPIRIT
CHOSEN ONE
THE BEAR
FASLIYANNE
SOCCEROO
WICKED WILMA
PRINCESS CHARMAINE
ALMATY EXPRESS

this should ensure that the plodders [even pacers] in the field will run through the above horses late on

plodders

ANGELOFTHENORTH
CLANACHY
BARRALAND
BRAILLE

would have to throw Clanachy out - just looks poor


The other 3 are all well handicapped..particularly BARRALAND who has just dropped 4lb since last run - last won off 71 and today is off 64. ground distance no prob

BRAILLE is also well in and lightly raced..dropped 2lb since last run to 58..last won off 65. ground distance no prob

Angelofthenorth isn't as well handicapped as the other two but seeing as it will be suited by the race pace and its trading at 36/1 has to be worth a cover.


£20 on Braille @ 8.0
£10 on Barraland @ 15.0
£3 on Angelofthenorth @ 38.0
 
Last edited:
Was not going to pay much attention to the racing today but have backed Braille e/w. Good luck.
 
Unlucky EC. It'a trend that I've noticed more and more, and it shouldn't really be a surprise, but in races where there is likely to be lots of pace, jockeys are getting wise to it and not taking each other on so much. Certainly makes form study trickier. I'm of the opinion that any more than 3 or 4 front runners in something like a 12-runner race leads to some jockeys using different tactics than the norm.

Few quid on Ocean Bright in the last to get some money back? Second start for the yard and comes from what could be a strong 0-60 at Chepstow last time, the drop in trip certainly looking in favour. Tillietudlum makes the market on jumps form but has a similar profile to La Vecchia Scuola who got beaten on her first start back on the Flat before improving in line with her jumps form. Don't think a punting yard like Goldie's would have been happy with the 6/4 this morning.
 
davidjohnson said:
Unlucky EC. It'a trend that I've noticed more and more, and it shouldn't really be a surprise, but in races where there is likely to be lots of pace, jockeys are getting wise to it and not taking each other on so much. Certainly makes form study trickier. I'm of the opinion that any more than 3 or 4 front runners in something like a 12-runner race leads to some jockeys using different tactics than the norm.

Few quid on Ocean Bright in the last to get some money back? Second start for the yard and comes from what could be a strong 0-60 at Chepstow last time, the drop in trip certainly looking in favour. Tillietudlum makes the market on jumps form but has a similar profile to La Vecchia Scuola who got beaten on her first start back on the Flat before improving in line with her jumps form. Don't think a punting yard like Goldie's would have been happy with the 6/4 this morning.
Click to expand...

yes agree about jocks taking a back seat - thats why when i looked at this race i thought well at least two should take each other on as you are nullifying a horse's chance by holding back when they want to run

something else to bear in mind is that over 5f they can carry the speed better..it takes some breaking over 5

the course comes into a bit as well..musslebro wouldn't harm front runners as much as other courses..one course where they never seem to come back is Southwell..saw one the other day..bit similar to this race..they did go hell for leather..most of them dropped back but the winner amazingly kept going..something about that track makes it hard to come from behind..the slow nature maybe akin to being hard to close in slow turf
 
might use this thread to post a few more races up re pace..theres a couple later i have earmarked but looked at yet..might get some discussion going

i use this for place betting on favourites that are suited by the pace in the main..found it pretty good
 
No harm on a quiet Tuesday. Braille certainly did not quicken, just stayed on as expected. The money for the fav was pretty significant too I thought.
 
Regarding the last race, Tillietudlum pretty impressive and hard to him not rated in the 70's rather than the 40's by the end of the summer.
 
8.30 Carlisle

Just Sam
Young Gladiator
Grand Stitch

all 3 lead on most of their runs

Wheres Reilly
Lucky Dan

are two that i like here to close the leaders down
 
I dont know how you have the stomach for that sort of racing to stay in tune with the form but fair play.
 
Gearoid said:
I dont know how you have the stomach for that sort of racing to stay in tune with the form but fair play.
Click to expand...

Was just thinking about this last week. All about specializing really. I was totally out of my depth in the sprint handicaps but a guy I know follows northern sprint handicaps like a hawk and knew the whole field the way I (think I!) know a top class Irish chaser. Put me on to two winners and a second. Ask him about the Dante or the Yorkshire Cup and he hadn't a notion.

The concept of concentrating your punting on a specialist area is sound in theory, but requires a serious amount of commitment.
 
it all comes the same to me Gearoid - horses - form - pace - give me a race and some form and I'll analyse it

Figaro Flyer - had only won 2 from 30 odd races but I was on the other day when they dropped it 4lb in a race tailormade for a finisher..yes you get your losers but you do in Group races as well
 
EC1 said:
it all comes the same to me Gearoid - horses - form - pace - give me a race and some form and I'll analyse it
Click to expand...

I think it's a huge help to have at least a base knowledge of a horse's form before any analysis. There are a pool of horses who I have a basic idea of their form/ideal conditions etc. Obviously these have to be then re-evaluated in the context of each individual run.

For me it would be nigh on impossible to go into a Carlisle sprint handicap (to take one example) and sort out that form. Would take me hours to get to any sort of grips with it.
 
Which is exactly why on my days off I sit and watch rather than have a bet on this sort of racing. If you dont put the time in dont expect to get the money out.
 
tomorrow - 3.35 Lingfield is an interesting race - there's one in it i'm particularly interested in.

firstly..there's lots of pace here

MONS CALPE
CELTIC COMMITMENT
CATALAN BAY
DANCING JEST
WELSH ANTHEM

now whilst looking through the hold up horses i spotted what i think is a nice ploy not only for getting a handicap mark down..run a horse in the wrong style....but also make an in form horse look out of form

there was one ran saturday similar to this..check this out...Charlie Cool..the other week i backed CC to place in what looked a fast race..its a hold up horse on most runs..but instead of holding it up..it was fired off to the front at a rapid rate and burned out real quickly..a very odd way to run a hold up horse i thought..blatant over fast pace set...so i see its running last saturday..again in a fast race so backed it to win..guess what..it was held up this time and won...over a trip short of its best as well....when a horse has a set style its always worth looking for the odd one they throw in under a different style that makes the horse's current form look real bad..when it isn't.

with that in mind..have a look at LUNAR RIVER...in near enough every race..all of the last 20 odd anyway..its held up...but last time for the first time they put it to the front..total style change..got hammered by 11 lengths..tomorrow runs off 59 back on turf but has shown to be able to win of about 66 when runner up on AW. Looking back i'm sure this horse was about rated the same on both surfaces so 59 is a nice drop down from the regular mid 60's it normally runs off. Ran 2nd ..just beat in a fast run race at Windsor last year..off..coincidentally..59 :)

Tomorrow's race looks tailormade for this ..strong pace to sit off..nice racing mark...and a nice 11 length beating last time to make sure not too many are bothered about it.

I feel a bet coming on :D

13.5 on BF at the moment for loose change
 
Last edited:
Back in my early punting days I concentrated on Northern staying chasers to a bit of success. But I was only winning (say) 5% compared to losing 5% on my overall punting.

And it started to bore me to tears. I'm back to losing now and far happier.
 
Bar the Bull said:
Back in my early punting days I concentrated on Northern staying chasers to a bit of success. But I was only winning (say) 5% compared to losing 5% on my overall punting.

And it started to bore me to tears. I'm back to losing now and far happier.
Click to expand...

thats a cracking post - made me laugh:lol:

you a very funny man Bar:cool:
 
I agree with Bar's point. Bet on what you enjoy, and enjoy the bet. Unless you are betting in thousands, you won't make anything like an amount that makes a difference, and even if you go up, you'll come back down. Putting hours and hours of your life in to studying will maybe swing you 1/2% if you are lucky (whether it be reducing losses, or increasing profits) - better off to get out there and enjoy yourself.
 
Poker is far easier to make money at than punting horses yet I still do the latter much more often! Thankfully May has been a great month after a torrid March/April, which I can't understand because I thought I knew the NH form inside out yet got turned over regularly yet May, when the flat form is only really formative i've been picking double figure winners regularly... Weird..

Funnily enough I didn;t used to bet much in handicaps but i've been spending more time on them this flat season and it's proving worthwhile.
 
Back
Top