A little system for the Festival

Diamond Geezer

Diamond Geezer

Gone But Not Forgotten
Joined
May 2, 2003
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Two years ago backing the fifteen horses in first time headgear, excluding first time cheekpieces and tongue ties, returned £750 for a £5 each way bet on each one. I can't find last year's figures but I do remember the "system" returned a profit again and the winners included Jezki, Holywell and Western Warhorse.

Wonder if it will pay again ?
 
I think this was possibly promoted in the Weatherby's Betting Guide.

I bought said Guide knowing I'd read it before, but having never purchased it myself. I confess I was very disappointed to find it was a Trends-based book (don't really have any time for that lark), but the FT Headgear stat they mentioned, did appear to be noteworthy.
 
I love a good system.......unfortunately in 40 years I've only come across 1 that works.

A friend ex Ladbrokes in Thailand showed me how it's done and I have tried it on a small scale and I even manged to make money out of it.

My problem is I don't have the Knowledge of betting markets nor the time and patience he has to sit there race after race.

Nor is it my style because I would rather pick the odd horse and hammer it.

I have watched him work and what this guy does is awesome and with no risk or at least very very little. He only plays on Betfair and Betdaq and never best with and bookie.
 
Grasshopper said:
I think this was possibly promoted in the Weatherby's Betting Guide.

I bought said Guide knowing I'd read it before, but having never purchased it myself. I confess I was very disappointed to find it was a Trends-based book (don't really have any time for that lark), but the FT Headgear stat they mentioned, did appear to be noteworthy.
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That's correct Grass and this year he's attempting a new angle which is horses carrying big weights in handicaps. This in light of the fact that the years gone by where a trainer could line a horse up to get in off a featherweight has passed given there is so much competition that you need to ensure a high enough mark just to get in, making them increasingly compressed handicaps
 
Can just imagine specialist bookies lined up in headgear taking punters on .... half the chinelss wonders thinking they're back in mistress' dungeon

Good a system as any - days of poring over form n figs never seems to fully justify itself for me at Chelts, but enjoyable in itself of course

Can't find fault with an overall 4/1 return - will try it for fun
 
A brief report on how the system went

Amidst all the hullabaloo that surrounds the Festival, certain factors can be overlooked and that was the case last season with regards to the remarkable performance of horses wearing headgear for the first time (or switching to a new type of headgear for the first time).
Take Day Three, for example, when there were just three horses wearing blinkers, a visor or a hood for the first time and, incredibly, all three won and at tasty odds, too, with Benefficient striking in what is now the JLT Novice Chase at 20-1, Holywell in the Pertemps at 25-1 and Same Difference in the Kim Muir at 16-1 for a near 8,300-1 treble.
Granted, it was coincidence that all three should have occurred on the same afternoon but those new-headgear successes weren't rationed to Day Three, as Flaxen Flare also won the Fred Winter the previous afternoon pretty much as he liked at 25-1, donning blinkers for the first time (or any kind of headgear over hurdles), having tried a visor on the Flat.
Four winners at 20-1 or bigger for horses wearing first-time or new headgear during one Festival is eye catching to say the least but especially so when we consider there were just 14 qualifiers all week (not including cheekpieces – more of which in the Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide).
Of the 10 who did not win, Ackertac was only beaten a neck into second at 66-1 in the novice handicap chase, Rock On Ruby ran a screamer to be second in the Champion Hurdle having set too fast a pace and His Excellency finished third at 80-1 in the Arkle, albeit in just a seven-runner affair.
 
How can you tell retrospectively that it was first time headgear? The RP just lists that it wore headgear. I'm intrigued but i'd like to see if there is anything in it over a longer period. 1st time headgear is a talked about angle and its fair to assume that if a trainer knows the headgear could work (i.e. the horse worked well in it at home), Cheltenham would be a likely target.

Its possibly an angle worth analysing outside of Chelt if you had the data. Certain trainers are bound to be more alive to the possibilities it presents.
 
Aragorn said:
How can you tell retrospectively that it was first time headgear? The RP just lists that it wore headgear. I'm intrigued but i'd like to see if there is anything in it over a longer period. 1st time headgear is a talked about angle and its fair to assume that if a trainer knows the headgear could work (i.e. the horse worked well in it at home), Cheltenham would be a likely target.

Its possibly an angle worth analysing outside of Chelt if you had the data. Certain trainers are bound to be more alive to the possibilities it presents.
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It was listed in RP on the morning of each raceday and on a couple of forums
 
here we are..from March 6 last year

Off topic slightly but just for interest, and to avoid opening another thread, interested by the fact Jezki wearing first time hood. This was the record last year of all horses wearing first time headgear.

Day 1
His Excellency Arkle- 3rd 80/1
Rock On Ruby CH- 2nd 11/2
Ackertac Novice H/Cap Chase - 2nd 66/1

Day2
Tour D'Argent Coral Cup - Unp 50/1
Timesawastin Coral Cup- Unp 50/1
Flaxen Flare Fred Winter - 1st 25/1
Ruacana Fred Winter - Unp 14/1

Day3
Benefficient Jewson NC - 1st 20/1
Holywell Pertemps - 1st 25/1
Same Difference Fulke Walwyn - 1st 16/1

Day 4
Vasco Du Ronceray Triumph - Unp 20/1
Brampour Vincent O'Brien - Unp 50/1
Act Of Kalanasi Conditional Jockeys HC Hurdle - Unp 50/1

Can't be assed to work it out exactly but level stakes profit, both win or ew, backing everything wearing first time headgear.
 
Some statistics since 2005, courtesy of David Myers;

While the application of headgear can be deemed a negative, it is possible to triumph wearing blinkers, visors or cheekpieces at the Festival, although it needs noting that the strike-rate remains low, as can be seen via the breakdown below.
The one exception was the application of a hood, as they performed much better at 4-25 (16%, +£57).
Blinkers: 15-348 (4%) -£121
Cheekpieces: 10-320 (3%) -£89
Visor: 3-91 (3%) -£57
As for those wearing any kind of headgear for the first time, they returned a collective record of 12-258 (-£30).

 
Here's another little "system" for you. Jonjo has had 23 winners at the Festival this century, 15 of them over a distance of 3m or further. A £1 level stake bet on these 15 horses would have returned £189.88.
 
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