Aintree Thursday

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I thought Starluck was given a pretty poor ride at Cheltenham, for a horse with stamina doubts he was kept wide for a long way and while it probably didnt make much of a difference in the end, it certainly did not help and I think he could have been closer.

Ground should suit, track should be ideal...think he will comfortably reverse form with Walk On. Hebridean could be the danger with these conditions likely to suit.

Big Bucks and Mighty Man look the obvious two and many will point to Mighty Man having a great chance of reversing the Cheltenham form at a track like Aintree plus he gets weight. If you knew for sure that he will progress from that comeback run you could make a strong case for him but the "bounce" factor is a worry. Big Bucks is probably easy to underestimate as well given his ungainly style so granted a proper test he should be tough to beat.

I would be against Agus A Vic in the Foxhunters, classy type on his day but I can never get him right (watch him piss in now!).

In the last it looks a wide open event. I thought Arcalis ran much better at Cheltenham that the run looks on paper and drying ground could see him run a decent race at a big price.

Fancies? Selections?
 
Agus A Vic missed Cheltenham to run here and is 11lbs or so clear on the ratings running off level weights, if the race were over the Mildmay fences he'd be 10/11 for this. Real danger is likely to come from Trust Fund who was impressive at Chepstow the other week and the JP McManus horse Having A Cut would interest me for a place, form is very in and out (P1P1) but is the sort who might come alive over these fences and it's a while since Elegant Lord was winning tis, maybe JP wants another one?
 
One of the best days racing of the year.

I agree with your views on the first 2 races, and I strongly fancy Starluck to turn around the form with Walkon, who really needs a strong test and probably slower ground.

In the first, Big Bucks looks unopposable, and I wonder, despite it being a great run and great to see, whether Mighty Man was flattered by his 5th at Cheltenham. It's very rare for a horse to come back from the type of injury he had, let alone win a race at the top level. I don't think the weight pull will be near enough. Would love to see him run well though.

I think the best bet (outside Big Bucks) could well be Faasel, whose Aintree record reads 122, with the second place finishes being behind the very talented Aces Four, and Blazing Bailey in this race last year. As much as he never seems to have very much desire to win, his place claims are vastly overpriced (he can be backed at 40/1 or his place odds were circa 8.6 on BF last night). Perhaps a Forcast with Big Bucks is the way to go.

I also find it difficult to see Denman being beaten. He would have been a little closer to Kauto Star in the Gold Cup with a more positive ride (perfect ride in the circumstances though), and for me, dispelled all fears after Kempton. He may not ever turn in a performance like last year's Gold Cup, but he won't need anything like that level to beat the others here today. I'm not a massive fan of Exotic Dancer around Aintree, his only win being a 5 runner renewal of this race 2 years ago, where the other 4 horses beat themselves and he made some very bad errors on the first circuit.

I strongly fancy Planet of Sound in the 2m4 Novices Chase late on. I don't think Cheltenham particularly suited him, but he showed the extra half mile will be right up his street with how he stayed on from a long way back. The slower pace and flatter track should suit, and a return to his Newbury form will see him go very close. I think, for all that Chapturgeon looked impressive visually at Cheltenham, it was a poor renewal of the Jewson and he beat very little. He clearly has a reasonable chance, but I feel he has been overrated for the manner of his last run.
 
Hamm said:
I think the best bet (outside Big Bucks) could well be Faasel, whose Aintree record reads 122, with the second place finishes being behind the very talented Aces Four, and Blazing Bailey in this race last year. As much as he never seems to have very much desire to win, his place claims are vastly overpriced (he can be backed at 40/1 or his place odds were circa 8.6 on BF last night). Perhaps a Forcast with Big Bucks is the way to go.
Click to expand...

66/1 still with Ladbrokes, VC now into 50's. 22/1 is available with Paddy Power in the without Fav market.
 
I agree the ground will be a factor, we are all looking at recent form on Soft / GS. and it will be Good today (and on the lively side if anything). That will favour the speed horses over the likes of Denman - if anything beats him today it will be the going

I too like Trust Fund a lot in the Fos Hunters', inc the riderTom Greenall - I back the rider as much as the horse in Amateur races. Sam Waley-Cohen's mount Blu Teen is also interesting with Sam in the saddle - imo he is one of the very best riders of the GN fences (rides long!!)

I'm also interested in Eleazar in the final race, he'll like the ground and has clearly been kept fresh for this. Good e/e bet at 14/1
 
Don't think there'll be much between Walkon and Starluck but I'm keen to oppose Hebridean, despite the vibes from the yard. Race set up perfectly for him at Kempton, and that form wouldn't come within an arses roar of the Triumph. If he has made the necessary imprvement then I'll be the first doff my cap, but he is an absurd price.
 
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Agree with that TS. Nicholls seems to do the thinking for either the betting public or bookming fraternity these days.
 
I am chasing my Walkon losses today in a big way.
I would love to see Mighty Man and Al Eile do the business this week.
I think that Denman will be beaten, and I reckon Our Vic is worth a speculative punt to turn him over. Conditions will be ideal for him. He has bounced back from poor runs before.

I have had a bet on Vinmix de Bessy in the 2m handicap. Again, conditions should suit.
 
Couldn't agree more. Great to see Mighty Man run so well, and Big Bucks looks very lazy but kept finding more and more, winning comfortably which probably had Ruby wondering how.
 
Was pretty awesome to see Mighty Man swinging away on the bridle coming around the final bend - doesn't seem too long ago we were all fearing the worst when he broke down at Punchestown.
 
Fantastic race, and the heart has to bleed for Henry Daly and owners of MM
But I don't think the mistake cost him the race - I think BBs would have found more if needed, he is a very good horse indeed (and will improve over time)
 
Bizarre ... almost every firm is 5/2 each of 3, and Betfair has 2 at 2.55, and 1 at 2.65.

For all that he may improve, I think Hebridean is much too short.
 
I would be inclined to agree with the comment on Hebridean,4/1 in my book.Think they will all have to go to get the better of Walkon today.
 
Not convinced Hebridean isn't a woofer - this race will tel!
I;ve backed Walkon to win, W & Starluck in the FCT

PS slightly maddeening as I though I had place bet on Ski Sunday but was a bit greedy and didn't get it matched LOL - story of my life!. Walkon is good, so glad he got this win

Have never liked Hebridean, think that was all PN-yard hype

PSS As Jm just said, pays a great compliment to Zaynar, the only horse to have beaten Walkon - twice!
 
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Starluck going to be put away now - "has had a busy season".
but the horse to take out of the race is Zaynar LOL! - it's goign to be 'grey; year in 2010 fot the hurdlers I think
 
Both Zaynar and Walkon look good prospects for the future though i see both having slightly frustrated campaigns next year.
 
Zaynar looks like he'll stay 2m 4f+ with time, maybe even needs it now with the way he came up the hill and has come off the bridle in his races in the past.

Walkon looks more of a speed horse but both have a fair amount to find to make up into Champion Hurdle winners.
 
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