Aintree Thursday

Grasshopper said:
Notus De La Tour a great price at around 8/1 for the Anniversary. This sharp track will suit better than Cheltenham, and I think he has every chance of reversing Fred Winter form with Sanctuaire on today's terms.
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I would have to disagree with this. He was absolutely thumped by Sanctuaire, but much more worrying was he was off the bridle a long, long way out, and having just watched the fred winter again, he doesn't seem to have the class to win what looks a good Grade 1.
 
Hamm said:
...he doesn't seem to have the class to win what looks a good Grade 1.
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I'd have to disagree with that :D

If it's a good Grade 1 then it's because of the Fred Winter runners and not despite them. The Triumph was poor this year and the fact that egg and spoon winners like Super Kenny are priced at 9/2 tells you all you need to know about this year's juveniles.
 
I can assure you I'm not grouping all the Fred Winter runners into one basket :p

I think Sanctuaire will win - no idea how good Super Kenny is.
 
Interesting, from The Guardian

Quote:


I followed Tom George's horseboxes through the roadworks on the M62 this morning and, having snatched a brief word with the trainer a few minutes ago, I can pass on a good mention for Olofi (2.35) at 33-1 with Coral and Stan James for the four-year-old hurdle today. George reckons that we didn't see the horse at anything like his best when he was well beaten in the Triumph Hurdle last month and the stable are in better form now. Max McNeill, who has a one-third share in Olofi, won the race last year with Walkon and is apparently on his way up to Liverpool now in the hope of further success.
 
I don't have a great record at the Aintree meeting so I never punt with confidence (except in the Grand National & Topham :)) so these are the ones to avoid:

I've ended up punting Possol ew (12/1 or was it 14s) w/o BB. Strikes me as the only scrap of value.

Super Kenny and Drussell (ew) as possibles in a weak race.

Nacarat, in the hope going left-handed doesn't inconvenience him too much.

Trust Fund. I'm not convinced Baby Run is that good or that he's had sufficient time to get over his Cheltenham race.

Watch My Back (ew) in the hope he's in the kind of form that created such a big impression at Doncaster and that he isn't inconvenienced by the shorter trip. Saver on Chapo in the belief we'll see his real form at this trip.

The Nightingale, by process of elimination as much as anything else, but a saver on Hey Big Spender, whose profile I like.

Main bet on Wishfull Thinking, ew sickness insurance on Songe and Pistolet Noir, and enough on ainama to cover them all.
 
The relatively small fields makes it far more difficult for punters to dig out a bit of value. In all honesty today's card is probably best left alone but I have had four small bets:-

Possol 14/1 W/O Big Bucks
Drussell 18/1 W/O Sanctuaire
Wishfull Thinking 6/1 & Mamlook 14/1

Not so sure that there is much value in Wishfull Thinking as the booking of Johnson is open to question and for me he looks like a chaser who might appreciate a stiffer track. Added to that he is running off the back of what looked a particularly nasty fall.

Tomorrow should provide better opportunities.
 
Galileo said:
I purposely did not mention him after Cheltenham!!:o

I will have a couple of quid on him but he is clearly not one that you can rely on to run his race despite his considerable ability. The ease in the ground might help him today (despite me thinking better ground would suit at Cheltenam) and his run at Cheltenham prior to the festival gives him every chance of placing or winning if the favourite disappoints.
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I've tried to back him at 10. There is no way Big Bucks should nearly be 1/30th of the price of Tidal Bay.
 
loosehead said:
Interesting, from The Guardian

Quote:


I followed Tom George's horseboxes through the roadworks on the M62 this morning and, having snatched a brief word with the trainer a few minutes ago, I can pass on a good mention for Olofi (2.35) at 33-1 with Coral and Stan James for the four-year-old hurdle today. George reckons that we didn't see the horse at anything like his best when he was well beaten in the Triumph Hurdle last month and the stable are in better form now. Max McNeill, who has a one-third share in Olofi, won the race last year with Walkon and is apparently on his way up to Liverpool now in the hope of further success.
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Who wrote this guff? The stable couldn't have been in better form when he ran at Cheltenham while the fact that his owner is, shock horror, going to the races hardly boosts his chance.
 
Poor race there, couldn't imagine Big Bucks ran to anything above low 150s.

Tidal Bay must be the most frustrating horse to own/train. Would love to find out what's gone wrong with him.

Good run from Possol i thought.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've ended up punting Possol ew (12/1 or was it 14s) w/o BB. Strikes me as the only scrap of value.
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Ooo, I thought Possol might cover me for the day there - great run. Doubled my money anyway so that's a reasonable start to proceedings. Well done us, Treetangle!
 
Thought Sanctuaire ran much too keen, and didn't have enough left at the end. Hard to know what to make of the race as Barizan looked like he would struggle and then stayed on well - have no idea what to make of the winner. One of those races?
 
of course I was :p

didn't have much of an opinion on the 3rd in the fred winter, just that notus de la tour doesn't have the necessary class. Not sure what to make of it as a race though but the third clearly did it no harm there.
 
Blimey,when I saw Orsippus finish fourth in a modest juvenile at Market Rasen on his hurdles debut I never envisaged he'd be winning the 4 year old hurdle at Aintree.

Ironically the winner that day Herschel was a Findlay horse (during the Findlay/Bloom days).
 
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As Carlito Brigante's biggest fan, I'm not sure how to feel after that. I'll go for morally justified but financially buggered.
 
You would have thought Aintree would suit him better than Punchestown too, both in terms of track and likely ground. Does that make it worse? :D
 
Hamm said:
Thought Sanctuaire ran much too keen, and didn't have enough left at the end. Hard to know what to make of the race as Barizan looked like he would struggle and then stayed on well - have no idea what to make of the winner. One of those races?
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In hindsight if he was unlucky at Cheltenham and you fancied Sanctuaire you could probably have given the winner an each way chance. Unfortunately, my each way Drussell ran an absolute shocker - little tip for Richard Johnson if a horse is pulling hard it isn't the best idea to show it as much daylight as possible.
 
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