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Another Newbie

2017diary said:
WD - as a rule with lays there's more to lose if you carry on instead of sitting them out.
Click to expand...
This is why I only look for 3 in my favour per day.
The other 2 I mentioned were before the last race I laid. My confidence in those two dropped, although it turns out I was right on both.
 
Races on Monday 22nd September 2025 - First 3 picks

13:40 hrs @ Leicester - I am laying = Homer Stokes

13:48 hrs @ Hamilton - I am laying = James Park Woods

14:02 hrs @ Listowel - I am laying = Vlhova

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.
 
TheHobbitsReturn said:
Races on Monday 22nd September 2025 - First 3 picks

13:40 hrs @ Leicester - I am laying = Homer Stokes

13:48 hrs @ Hamilton - I am laying = James Park Woods

14:02 hrs @ Listowel - I am laying = Vlhova

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.
Click to expand...

13:40 hrs @ Leicester - I am laying = Homer Stokes + 250

13:48 hrs @ Hamilton - I am laying = James Park Woods + 250

14:02 hrs @ Listowel - I am laying = Vlhova + 250

250 + 250 + 250 =750

I am done for the day.
Have fun one and all.
 
Outsider said:
I have to say you're good at this.
Click to expand...
Thank you.
I started during the pandemic, I have been refining my approach since then.

Year 1 I made a whopping 100% profit on a 5k account whilst I tested, re tested and learned from my mistakes.

It is now year 5. I still have some hiccups. Lost -316 one day earlier this month, managed to recover that loss and some within a few days.
Maintaining discipline is the challenge.

I am always looking to refine my approach, make a little more without adding too much risk.
Hence the request for tips that I can check against my own analysis.

A 22/1 (For example) win once or twice a month would be lovely :)
But not at the expense of the profits overall.
 
I had some fun on the Australian races this morning.

I laid

Just Super on the 05:57 Emerald (AUS) + 100

Just Dance on the 06:00 Moe (AUS) + 100

Hey Bella on the 06:30 Moe (AUS) + 100

I have been tracking and testing analysis on the Aussie races for a while.
Decided to take the plunge with 100 stakes

100 + 100 + 100 =300

Great start, watch it bite me on the backside at some point.....
It never goes smoothly on new markets in my experience. There is always a hidden "surprise".
 
TheHobbitsReturn said:
I had some fun on the Australian races this morning.

I laid

Just Super on the 05:57 Emerald (AUS) + 100

Just Dance on the 06:00 Moe (AUS) + 100

Hey Bella on the 06:30 Moe (AUS) + 100

I have been tracking and testing analysis on the Aussie races for a while.
Decided to take the plunge with 100 stakes

100 + 100 + 100 =300

Great start, watch it bite me on the backside at some point.....
It never goes smoothly on new markets in my experience. There is always a hidden "surprise".
Click to expand...
don't let your discipline go Hobbit, you're smashing it in the UK & IRE races
 
NH_Andy said:
don't let your discipline go Hobbit, you're smashing it in the UK & IRE races
Click to expand...
I won't. Appreciate the reminder.

I have tested the Aussie races for a while before I took the plunge. I also use smaller sizes.

My analysis proved the concept over a decent period before I took the plunge.
That said, if I see weakness at all, I will stop immediately and revert to review before doing anything further.

I tried the US races and saw weakness. The win ratio was good enough for some but not for me. So I stepped back and reverted to reviewing until I can either find the weakness in my analysis of US races or realise it is simply not sustainable.

Aussie races appear to be closer to the UK from an analysis perspective.
 
Races on Tuesday 23rd September 2025 - First 3 picks

14:15 hrs @ Lingfield - I am laying = Birthday Angel

14:28 hrs @ Warwick - I am laying = Gone In Sixty

14:50 hrs @ Listowel - I am laying = Liamo

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.
 
TheHobbitsReturn said:
Races on Tuesday 23rd September 2025 - First 3 picks

14:15 hrs @ Lingfield - I am laying = Birthday Angel

14:28 hrs @ Warwick - I am laying = Gone In Sixty

14:50 hrs @ Listowel - I am laying = Liamo

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.
Click to expand...

14:15 hrs @ Lingfield - I am laying = Birthday Angel + 250

14:28 hrs @ Warwick - I am laying = Gone In Sixty + 250

14:50 hrs @ Listowel - I am laying = Liamo + 250

250 + 250 + 250 = 750

I am done for the day.
Have funny and all.
 
That was a good day.

300 on the Aussie races
750 on Uk and Ireland

plus a bonus 180 on an each way back of Chico Dulce.

I am going to treat myself to a Stella, or two :)
 
Aussie races today

06:10 hrs @ Sandown - I am laid = A Diva + 100

06:18 hrs @ Eagle Farm - I am laid = Empire Of Art + 100

06:25 hrs @ Balaklava - I am laid = Oakley Miss + 100

100 + 100 + 100 = 300
 
Last edited:
TheHobbitsReturn said:
Aussie races today

06:10 hrs @ Sandown - I am laying = A Diva + 100

06:18 hrs @ Eagle Farm - I am laying = Empire Of Art + 100

06:25 hrs @ Balaklava - I am laying = Oakley Miss + 100

100 + 100 + 100 = 300
Click to expand...
You posted this at 6.42am - haven't these races already occurred?

I don't really follow Australian racing, so I honestly don't know.
 
Ian_Davies said:
You posted this at 6.42am - haven't these races already occurred?

I don't really follow Australian racing, so I honestly don't know.
Click to expand...
Yes, they have already occurred. The last finished 20 odd minutes before I posted. To be honest, I did not post in advance as I usually do because I figured I am one of the few that might be up at this hour and on the forum. Had I known others would be here, I would have posted in advance for them to lay if they wished to. Which of course, is exactly what I do with the UK and Ireland races.

I also figured no one would doubt my credibility at this point, given the number of advanced posts I have made.

But I guess someone had to challenge me @Ian_Davies :)
 
Ian_Davies said:
It just seemed odd to me that you were saying you were laying - as opposed to you'd laid - when the race times and posting time stamps suggested the races must have come and gone.

Thanks for explaining.
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My bad. I should have altered the text.

You are quite correct, @Ian_Davies
I have edited it to be accurate. I appreciate you highlighting the error.
 

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