Ante-Post - Flat 2017

simmo said:
Churchill - this years One Cool Cat (amongst other Storm Cat's that haven't trained on) or the real deal?

I've had a couple of quid on Al Wukair and Dream Castle to turn him over.
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Sunybay is all over Al Wukair. My only worry is Dream Ahead is a rancid sire.
 
So was Wooton Bassett until Almanzor came along. I wouldn't let a sire put me off if I thought the horse was good enough.
 
wilsonl said:
Coral a wildly standout 16/1 Al Wukair, best price 7s elsewhere.
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I've no idea what price Corals went straight after the race but their price at 8.50pm last night - half time in the Arsenal game which was when I checked - was 8/1.
 
gus said:
I've no idea what price Corals went straight after the race but their price at 8.50pm last night - half time in the Arsenal game which was when I checked - was 8/1.
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Kept stakes small for fear of flagging it up. We'll see what happens but take a look at the oddschecker history, they were this price pre 6:00 AM but into 6s an hour or so later.

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I've noticed several times recently that the prices shown on Oddschecker aren't actually available if you actually try to place a bet and the Corals prices quoted are the slowest to be updated. Invariably bet by mobile these days so no idea if the same applies on the desktop site


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But if you look at the attachment you'll see they let me get the bet on at that price Viking.

If they claim culpable error later on then so be it but it was clearly available on their site at 5:40 AM today.
 
Ladbrokes are completely out of line with every other book on Friday's Marathon.

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I've taken the 14/1 (:blink:)e/w about Watersmeet. Looked to really enjoy the step up in trip and think he'll be a lot closer to Natural Scenery over 2m with the weight pull.
 
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I am on Aneen at 33s (last winter) and 20s (march) to win the Irish 1000Gns. Loved her maiden win last back end.
 
I spent some Easter-time looking at the flat anti-post markets, especially the Chester Cup.

The horse that caught my eye was Mirsaale. Formerly with James Tate, more recently with Keith Dalgleish.

This looks a real decent handicapper.

A healthy 20 percent strike rate on the flat, Mirsaale went novice hurdling, won a couple of those, but lost its way. He'll be better now switched back to the flat. He did win a decent pot this time at Ripon last year, so Mirsaale is a horse who wants to be caught, (and punted) early-on this season, in a race like The Chester Cup. Currently 25/1.

There'll be no NRNB for a while, so you need him to get there in one piece, but I'll take my chances. I reckon this could be a Marb special! We'll have to wait a few weeks to find out though.
 
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Marble said:
I spent some Easter-time looking at the flat anti-post markets, especially the Chester Cup.

The horse that caught my eye was Mirsaale. Formerly with James Tate, more recently with Keith Dalgleish.

This looks a real decent handicapper.

A healthy 20 percent strike rate on the flat, Mirsaale went novice hurdling, won a couple of those, but lost its way. He'll be better now switched back to the flat. He did win a decent pot this time at Ripon last year, so Mirsaale is a horse who wants to be caught, (and punted) early-on this season, in a race like The Chester Cup. Currently 25/1.

There'll be no NRNB for a while, so you need him to get there in one piece, but I'll take my chances. I reckon this could be a Marb special! We'll have to wait a few weeks to find out though.
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Anyone of our flatties on here have an opinion on The Chester Cup? I'd be interested to hear any angles people may have.
 
St Michel could be interesting. I'd give him a pass for the ces as its a very tough race for a 3yo and although he's off a high mark Chester is the best course in the country for weight carrying.

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How is St Michel now Officially rated 112, after running in the Ceserewitch off 97 and being well beaten?!! How did that happen?
 
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I've taken 7/1 about Lightning Spear for the Lockinge. This horse goes well first time out, rates better than the bare result in the QEII where he covered more ground than Ribchester/ Minding and is just a bit underrated. I fear Ribchester the most of the oppo - he seems more progressive than Galileo Gold - of the Ballydoyle entries I don't see this race in the past as being one they target so would doubt Alice Springs and Minding both turn up. The former seems more likely and her form is just that bit behind the colts.
 
Euronymous said:
I've taken 7/1 about Lightning Spear for the Lockinge. This horse goes well first time out, rates better than the bare result in the QEII where he covered more ground than Ribchester/ Minding and is just a bit underrated. I fear Ribchester the most of the oppo - he seems more progressive than Galileo Gold - of the Ballydoyle entries I don't see this race in the past as being one they target so would doubt Alice Springs and Minding both turn up. The former seems more likely and her form is just that bit behind the colts.
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I'm inclined to think that there was a definite track bias at Ascot on Champions' Day last year - basically, the nearer you were to the far side, the better - and that Lightning Spear was disadvantaged. So, I've followed you in on him for the Lockinge and I've also backed Brando for the Diamond Jubilee at 12/1. The case for him is straightforward: he is being aimed at the race, he has already shown his wellbeing this season with a comfortable win at Newmarket last week, he goes well at the track - excellent runs in last year's Wokingham as well as the Champion Sprint - and his form and time credentials are very solid indeed. His Ayr Gold Cup win last season off 110 was an outstanding piece of handicap form and his subsequent close third in that Champion Sprint could well have been a win if his jockey had made his effort sooner and if he'd been racing nearer the winner, The Tin Man. Dangers abound, of course, and in addition to The Tin Man, Limato will be a huge danger if he comes back to his best but double figure odds about Brando look on the generous side.
 
Marble said:
What's the motive Chef? Form pick or information?
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Someone has told me he is working very well and expected to win the Derringstown Derby trial on Sunday before taking in the Derby. I don't know how good the info is but he gave me an 8/1 winner yesterday so there's hope.
 
I'm with you Chef and took the SKyBet 25s about a week ago.

Out of all the Galileo's AOB has entered this year, this one has a stouter pedigree than most if not all and is absolutely sure to be suited by the setup up in trip, whereas the likes of Churchill and Cliffs Of Moher have more speed on the Dam's side - which isn't necessarily a bad thing given the sire but I'd still prefer to see more of a stamina influence from the female line.

He went off odds on in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud over a 10f trip when he hit the line well and it's always easy to forgive one of Aiden's first time up so I pay little attention to his run in the Ballysax, when Seamie said afterwards that he rode like the best horse in the race but didn't get the run of things and was only pushed out hands and heels in the end.

If he runs at Epsom, and the indications are that he will, he'll be considerably shorter.

Venice Beach is the other one that interests me for Epsom but he appears to have his quirks and that's not the place to demonstrate those.
 
I've taken 8s on Saturday and 6s today about Al Wukair in the SJP. It's kind of a free bet in essence - if Churchill runs the wager is paid for by the lay I have on him for the Derby. And if he misses and runs at Epsom I have a monster value bet.
 
Three firms have priced up the 'Boodles diamond handicap' sprint on Wednesday. Confessional, at 10 years of age could be value at 14-1. I think he's due a win and has won round here before.
 
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