Arc trials Longchamp

sunybay

At the Start
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many good races in a day


wondering if Sarafina has choosen the easy one?
the japanesse horses are very good and St Nicholas Abbey is not a bad one either.
 
Wont be throwing anything their way. Really want to see Galikova sprint up in the Vermeille. Have her at 25/1 for the big one.
The programm around the main races might offer some interesting some betting.
 
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Timeform give you a preview and ratings for Sunday's Arc trials meeting at Longchamp, which features the Prix Foy, the Prix Niel and Prix Vermeille, as well as the Prix du Moulin...

Prix du Petit Couvert (12:30 BST)

British raiders have enjoyed plenty of success in this 5f Group 3 in recent years and the challenge this year is spearheaded by Tim Easterby's Hamish McGonagall, who was a very good second to Margot Did in last month's Nunthorpe. The single best piece of form on offer in the race is Prohibit's win in the King's Stand at Royal Ascot, but that win means he is forced to carry a 7 lb Group 1 penalty. Now trained in Germany, War Artist, who took the Petit Couvert in 2009, is another major player after showing almost all his old ability remains intact this year. Perhaps the strongest of the French-trained contenders is Spectacle du Mars, who put up a smart effort when defying top weight in a valuable handicap at Deauville last month.

Timeform Ratings (Top 5, adjusted)

137 Hamish McGonagall
134 Spectacle du Mars
134 War Artist
132 Prohibit
130 Le Valentin


Prix Foy (13:00 BST)

Japanese colt Nakayama Festa comes out top on Timeform ratings for the Prix Foy judged on the top-class effort he put up when second to Workforce in last year's Arc. He hasn't been seen since running below form in the 2010 Japan Cup, however, so he will be entitled to need the run on what will be his seasonal reappearance. The sole French-trained runner is Sarafina, who is taking on the colts rather than going for the Prix Vermeille later on the card. She looked a bit unlucky when third in last year's Arc and is currently a 6.6 shot to go two places better this time round. She has won two of her three starts this year, most recently landing the Group 1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud in June. Aidan O'Brien will be represented by St Nicholas Abbey, who will be ridden by Christophe Soumillon. He has got his career back on track this year, winning a Group 3 at Chester and the Coronation Cup at Epsom, and probably wasn't seen to best effect in the King George last time. The line-up is completed by another Japanese performer in Hiruno d'Amour. He was much improved when winning the two-mile Tenno Sho at Kyoto back in May, but will need to progress again in this field.

Timeform Ratings (adjusted)

143 Nakayama Festa
141 Sarafina
138 St Nicholas Abbey
134 Hiruno d'Amour


Prix Niel (13:30 BST)

No-one has trained more Niel or Arc winners than Andre Fabre and his colt Meandre, who is a 9.6 shot for the Arc, tops the ratings for this year's renewal of the Niel. He was much improved when landing the Grand Prix de Paris over course and distance when last seen in July. Reliable Man was a beaten favourite when third behind Meandre in the Grand Prix de Paris, but had earlier shown himself a very smart colt when winning the Prix du Jockey-Club at Chantilly. He's a 21.0 shot for the Arc at present. Vadamar hasn't been seen since finishing seventh in the Derby at Epsom. He looked like taking high rank among the middle-distance three-year-olds earlier in the year, and though he hasn't quite delivered yet, still has time on his side. Soft ground could well prove important to him, both his wins to date coming on an easy surface. The line-up is completed by John Gosden's Colombian, the Fabre second string King of Arnor, and the Japanese colt Nakayama Knight, who was fourth in that country's Derby when last seen.

Timeform Ratings (adjusted)

135 Meandre
132 Reliable Man
127 Vadamar
126 Colombian
121+ King of Arnor
120 Nakayama Knight


Prix du Moulin (14:40 BST)

Marco Botti's 3-y-o Excelebration tops the ratings for the Prix du Moulin, run over a mile, after his very impressive win in the Hungerford Stakes at Newbury last time. He will have the assistance of a new jockey on Sunday, Jamie Spencer taking over the reins from Adam Kirby, who has ridden Excelebration on his four previous starts this year. Among the home contingent, Planteur has the best form, though he needs to prove he can be as effective at a mile as he is over 10 furlongs, his recent fifth in the Jacques Le Marois at Deauville, while a respectable effort, not quite a match for his very best form. Dubawi Gold is seeking a first Group 1 success and will arrive at Longchamp on the back of a career-best effort when a cosy winner of the Celebration Mile at Goodwood. Trainer Robert Collet relies on Royal Bench rather than the high-class filly Immortal Verse. He was at least as good as ever when fourth behind his stablemate in the Jacques Le Marois last time. Other runners include Zoffany, Rio de la Plata, Rajsaman, and the Poule d'Essai des Poulains winner Tin Horse.

Timeform Ratings (Top 5, adjusted)

140 Excelebration
138 Planteur
135 Dubawi Gold
134 Royal Bench
133 Zoffany
133 Rio de la Plata


Prix Vermeille (15:15 BST)

The only one of the recognised Arc trials to hold Group 1 status, this year's Prix Vermeille has attracted six runners. The best of them so far is Goldikova's half-sister Galikova, who confirmed herself a very smart filly in her own right when landing the 10-furlong Group 2 Prix Guillaume d'Ornano at Deauville last time. She should relish the step up to a mile and a half and looks the one to beat. Aidan O'Brien's Wonder of Wonders has the next best form, though she isn't far ahead of the likes of Sarah Lynx, Wavering and the Aga Khan's hat-trick-seeking Shareta.

Timeform Ratings (adjusted)

129p Galikova
127 Wonder of Wonders
126 Sarah Lynx
124 Wavering
123p Shareta
121 Testosterone


Prix Gladiateur (16:20 BST)

A Group 3 run over nearly two miles, the Prix Gladiateur is something of a trial for the Prix du Cadran on Arc day. Francois Doumen's Kasbah Bliss won the race in 2008 and 2009 and will bid to atone for a troubled passage in last year's race this time round. Michael Bell's Allied Powers is the sole British raider.

Timeform Ratings (Top 5, adjusted)

128 Kasbah Bliss
127 Shamanova
127 Brigantin
126 Ley Hunter
125 Allied Powers
 
I share your opinion of Sarafina suny. But I wonder if connections are necessarily bothered about choosing the easier or more difficult of the trials. Something Hamm alluded to about wanting to see her run a battling race. I wouldn't necessarily be too worried if she's beaten... they may not be busting a gut with her before the big day.
 
I dont have a bet in the Arc yet, but even not wanting her to have a hard race I prefer her winning.
 
What's the spread on number on non-jiggers in the Arc trials?
There'll be more non-jiggers in a 7 horse race at Leicester than on an entire French PMU card DJ ;)

Hoping for purely sentimental reasons that Silver Vany can take the Gladiateur, highly underated trainer who's had big priced group race success in the past - huge huge step up in class mind.

Martin
 
I will be having a big bet on Testosterone, the form of her last win couldn't have worked out any better with Danedream's exploits in Germany. 9s is madness, thought she'd be vying for favouritism.

I'm a big Galikova fan but can't be backing her at such a short price. Think it's an awesome Vermeille and you can knock the middle distance three year old colts but the fillies are a great bunch imo.

Wonder of Wonders is an embarrassing second favourite, Testosterone and Shareta are better fillies and have the potential to improve as well.
 
I made her 9s. :confused:

No doubt I'm wrong to some extent, but so are the bookies. She'll be nearer 9s than 7/2 on the PMU come off time I suspect.
 
A very impressive performance by Sarafina .I wasn't overly impressed by her at Saint Cloud but that was brave and very classy.
 
Good performance from Reliable Man there too - Meandre undoubtedly below par and it's been mentioned elsewhere that Golden Lilac was withdrawn due to a virus, possible that the same virus has effected Meandre?
 
Sarafina 7/2
Workforce 5/1
Nathaniel 6/1
So You Think 7/1
Reliable Man 8/1
Galikova 8/1
Meandre 14/1
 
She could find trouble like last year, there's a good possibility the jockey will feck it up of course and the odds on favourite is she'll be badly drawn and will fly down the outside Bago/White Muzzle styley for third but other than that she wins for me. I've topped up at 4s.
 
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