Arc trials Longchamp

Gearoid said:
That occurred to me about the PMU. They love to back a French filly. Will take the 7/2.
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But they have two French fillies to back her with Galikova in opposition. I'd be amazed if she was any shorter than 11/4 at an absolute extreme.
 
She'll be 11/4 in a week.

I see Sarafina as much the most likely winner. I am unsure about Workforce's chances (think he is short enough anyway), don't fancy Nathaniel (the KG couldn't have been messier) at all, and So you think is only a possible.

Agree Galikova is still worth a bet, and thought Vadamar ran an eyecatching race after a long break, and 84 on BF would be worth taking if he was an intended runner.

Think the 3yo colts aren't up to much as regards winning an Arc, for all few were given tough races in the Niel.

Pretty confident a filly will win the Arc.
 
How? Unless one of the other market principals comes out of the race? She has proven she should be top of the market but there's not going to be a flood of money for a French filly Arc favourite three weeks before the race when all form is known.

She should be favourite after yesterday but I'd be making her much more like 9/2. I don't dispute her chances but she has some solid opposition, has only won three small field events this year and has to give weight to three year olds.

I'm on Galikova at between 10s and 16s and I think I'll probably go in again at 8s. I love horses that respond to pressure and constantly find and think she's still on an upward curve. There's never going to be much value in the market now all the trials are done but I think her and Hiruno D'Amour EW are probably the only scraps left.
 
Also, for time fans, it's worth noting that it absolutely lashed it down with heavy rain for a long time between the Niel and the Vermeille so comparison of times will be a pointless task.
 
Gamla Stan said:
She should be favourite after yesterday but I'd be making her much more like 9/2. I don't dispute her chances but she has some solid opposition, has only won three small field events this year and has to give weight to three year olds.
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Don't know where the solid opposition is. SYT is the most overrated horse in training and Workforce just isn't the same animal as he was last year. The weight aspect would only be relevant if older filles and mares had a terrible record in the race. At this stage I'm considering covering on Galikova and Nakayama Festa is a great price relative to what happened in 2010.
 
Gamla Stan said:
How? Unless one of the other market principals comes out of the race? She has proven she should be top of the market but there's not going to be a flood of money for a French filly Arc favourite three weeks before the race when all form is known.

She should be favourite after yesterday but I'd be making her much more like 9/2. I don't dispute her chances but she has some solid opposition, has only won three small field events this year and has to give weight to three year olds.

I'm on Galikova at between 10s and 16s and I think I'll probably go in again at 8s. I love horses that respond to pressure and constantly find and think she's still on an upward curve. There's never going to be much value in the market now all the trials are done but I think her and Hiruno D'Amour EW are probably the only scraps left.
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This is the same pattern with the Arc every single year, and I see no reason for it to change the closer we get to the big day. The favourite will tighten up at the head of the market, and the likely runners will start to emerge from a bigger pool of horses.

A bookie would be in danger of being closed down if they offered 9/2 on Sarafina for the Arc!
 
Euronymous said:
Don't know where the solid opposition is. SYT is the most overrated horse in training and Workforce just isn't the same animal as he was last year. The weight aspect would only be relevant if older filles and mares had a terrible record in the race. At this stage I'm considering covering on Galikova and Nakayama Festa is a great price relative to what happened in 2010.
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Euro, remember what happened to Workforce in last years KG? I'd say he's in as good if not better form and should not be underestimated.

Of the two french fillies i'm on Galikova's side. She is such a good mover and the 1m4f is going to bring out improvement. She won very cosily yesterday.

I'm still not really sure what is going to carry my money though. I'm not in the Sarafina camp this year, despite backing her last year. At this stage i'd probably side with Workforce and Galikova but I also think the Japanese horses Nakayama Festa has a chance at a decent price.
 
I see no reason why yesterday's 4 runner trial run at a steady pace is less messy than the KG - and despite the tragedy that befell Rewilding and Workforce being struck into Nathaniel stuffed SNA out of site .
 
Ardross said:
I see no reason why yesterday's 4 runner trial run at a steady pace is less messy than the KG - and despite the tragedy that befell Rewilding and Workforce being struck into Nathaniel stuffed SNA out of site .
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That is Nathaniel's only claim to having form to even run in this race; Sarafina has plenty.

In the KG, Rewilding broke down, Workforce hung half way across the track, and the pace did for SNA (the only thing in common with yesterday). The KG was miles messier than yesterday's race, which was run a steady pace, and that is the only messy aspect of it.
 
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Hamm said:
A bookie would be in danger of being closed down if they offered 9/2 on Sarafina for the Arc!
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Why would they? She's 5.00/5.10 on Betfair now. Bookies offer similar disparities to the market every Saturday nowadays.

I'd lay 4/1 myself.
 
Does seem though that despite the difference of opinion on Sarafina's price that we all still think there's a bit of juice in both Galikova and the Japanese horses.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Why would they? She's 5.00/5.10 on Betfair now. Bookies offer similar disparities to the market every Saturday nowadays.

I'd lay 4/1 myself.
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5 on BF is closer to 7/2 when you take commission into account.

Big difference between 9/2 and 3.8/1.
 
Aragorn said:
Euro, remember what happened to Workforce in last years KG? I'd say he's in as good if not better form and should not be underestimated.
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Something was amiss for him in last year's King George - this year's average run is as good as he is. He also needs to be better than he was last last year and there is no evidence of that.
 
I know, I'm just making the point that bookies often lay well above Betfair on big races every Saturday and whilst long-term, it is certainly a suicidal practice, they will do it fairly regularly.
 
Euronymous said:
He also needs to be better than he was last last year and there is no evidence of that.
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Do you think he does? I don't myself. I just don't think he's even in the form he was last year, that's my issue with him and he's another one at a terrible price.
 
Euronymous said:
Something was amiss for him in last year's King George - this year's average run is as good as he is. He also needs to be better than he was last last year and there is no evidence of that.
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Euro,
He was struck into quite badly and as a consequence ran sideways for the last furlong and a bit!
 
Another factor which will stop Sarafina shortening is if So You Think gets the green light for the race. A horse that attracts stupid amounts of money in relation to his chance in a race on every run!
 
That's because SYT and a couple of 3yo colts are priced in single figures despite only having double figure chances.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Another factor which will stop Sarafina shortening is if So You Think gets the green light for the race. A horse that attracts stupid amounts of money in relation to his chance in a race on every run!
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Here's hoping!

I've never seen a horse so overbet as this one.

I wonder if he got the go-ahead, and O'Brien/Ballydoyle talked him up, what price would he be?
 
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