Moray Smith
This youngster was absolutely brilliant at the Cheltenham Festival last season - and he's value to strike there again
Pro punter Moray Smith with his weekly betting advice
Pro punter Moray Smith has joined the Racing Post as a new columnist for the jumps season and will be sharing the insight gained from nearly two decades of battling the bookmakers
Wham! Bam! Thank you, Ma’am! Don’t you just love the start of the Cheltenham Festival? The roar that greets the best two-mile novice hurdlers as they set off in the Supreme, immediately followed by the spectacle of the fastest novice chasers battling it out in the Arkle. Shishkin loved it so much that he came back to win an Arkle 12 months after his last-gasp triumph in the Supreme.
You might have read previously that ante-post betting, particularly on the Cheltenham Festival, is very much my speciality and I want to focus on the Arkle.
This has always been one of my favourite races of the festival, although, as Forrest Gump might say, it’s like a box of chocolates – you never know what you’re going to get. We’ve had the sublime – Douvan, Altior, Sprinter Sacre – but we’ve also seen renewals like 2019, when the first three – Duc Des Genievres, Us And Them and Articulum – raced 50 times subsequently for a single win in a French conditions hurdle.
The reason for such a mixed bag is the specialised nature of the race. The pace is usually on from the moment the tapes go up, and the pool of novices capable of excelling over Cheltenham’s fences, while coping with the undulations and atmosphere, is limited. If a horse wins an Arkle impressively, get your betting boots on early for the following season’s Champion Chase.
Trainers are understandably keen to give their horses, especially their two-milers, a nice introduction to their new discipline and Arkle runners have often spent their nascent chasing careers in small-field, slowly run races that culminate in burn-ups, so it should come as no surprise that falls and race-changing errors frequently occur at these closing fences.
For punters, there can be lots to learn from those sit-and-sprint prep runs, looking at how their jumping stands up when they’re flat out. After all, if they can’t sort their feet out in the trial races when the pressure is on, what are their chances of meeting every fence at the festival on a good stride? The Arkle is indeed a very different test, and one very few pass with flying colours.
When looking at the race with a view to finding ante-post bets, the first thing on my mind is the need for speed. Look at the greatest Arkle winner of recent times – Sprinter Sacre. The clue there was that he’d been the fastest horse in the previous year’s Supreme, despite fading up the hill to finish third.
Sprinter Sacre (Barry Geraghty) jumps the last and wins the Racing Post Arkle13.3.12 Pic:Edward Whitaker
Sprinter Sacre was an impressive winner of the Arkle
Credit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)
Similarly, Douvan won only one race beyond about two miles, a Clonmel Oil Chase, and Altior was barely even tested beyond that trip. Yes, last year’s race was won by a staying type in Jango Baie, but that was because nothing could jump well enough to put the race to bed. Nicky Henderson said afterwards he’d never run at two miles again. Why? Because he knows he’s not fast enough and the Arkle just fell into his lap.
So, where does that leave us in terms of next March?
Two trainers, Henderson and Willie Mullins, have dominated the race in recent years, winning 11 of the last 14 runnings, and they train the two horses currently dominating the ante-post markets: Lulamba and Kopek Des Bordes. They’re two very different types of horse.
Lulamba went agonisingly close to winning the Triumph Hurdle in March, but that race, run over an extended two miles on Cheltenham’s New course, suits juveniles with a blend of speed and stamina and I’m concerned Lulamba doesn’t possess enough natural speed to win a good Arkle – and the 2026 running could be just that.
Kopek Des Bordes crosses the line ahead of William Munny
Kopek Des Bordes: won the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at the 2025 Cheltenham Festival
Credit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)
Kopek Des Bordes, on the other hand, has got so much natural speed that Mullins is hoping that putting a line of fences in front of him will slow him down! It’s not often I see a performance that leaves me lost for words afterwards, but I saw one at the Dublin Racing Festival when he was running away with Paul Townend against Grade 1 horses yet still found more when asked and hit the line hard.
He showed good speed again when travelling strongly to win the Supreme, over the same Old course that stages the Arkle, before finishing the season on a disappointing note at Punchestown. If he can jump – and he certainly looks like a chaser – then the Arkle is his to lose.
Looking down the list of bookmakers’ prices, it’s easy to spot several horses unlikely to line up: Anzadam, William Munny, The New Lion, Constitution Hill and Irancy are all expected to remain over hurdles, while Game Of Inches, Brighterdaysahead and Kawaboomga all look like they might need further.
Salvator Mundi is next among those likely to target the race. He’s another with speed to burn and brings strong novice hurdle form to the table, so if fences can put manners on him then he could be a live one at a nice price. He looks like a poor man’s Kopek Des Bordes to me, though – he is even more free-going than his stablemate, doesn’t finish his races as strongly and hasn’t achieved the same level of form. He has potential but I much prefer Kopek Des Bordes.
Romeo Coolio has finished behind both horses as a novice hurdler and looks likely to continue to fall a little short at the top level. I’m more interested in another Mullins runner, this year's County Hurdle winner Kargese. She's another strong traveller and looks well suited to two miles. That County wasn’t the most strongly run but she showed a lovely turn of foot when sweeping into the lead after the third-last hurdle and plenty of resolution to keep the chasing pack at bay. She put in an excellent effort to finish third behind State Man and Golden Ace at Punchestown, too. She still has plenty of improvement in her and could be a major player with her mares’ allowance.
Mullins has yet to commit her to chasing, but he says he wants to keep her and Jade De Grugy apart, with one going chasing and the other possibly targeting the Mares’ Hurdle. Kargese is a keen-going sort who has never raced beyond 2m1f, whereas Jade De Grugy has won five times over the 2m4f of the Mares’ Hurdle. Surely that’s the way to go.
Anyone looking further down the list of Arkle hopefuls is casting their net into very choppy waters. One or two will inevitably earn invitations to the party in March, but I’d be surprised if the next Arkle winner hasn’t already been mentioned.
Now, how do you play the ante-post market bearing in mind all of that?
Being successful at the punting game is all about finding value. My approach has remained the same since I set out to make my living from betting on horses nearly 20 years ago. I price up the race myself and only bet when bookmakers or the exchanges are offering me at least 20 per cent above my price. My current Arkle prices are: 11-4 Kopek Des Bordes, 5 Lulamba, 8 Kargese, 10 Salvator Mundi, 12 Romeo Coolio, 5-2 the field.
Kargese wins the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
Kargese: County Hurdle winner is another Arkle contender for Willie Mullins
Credit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)
This represents a 100 per cent book, which is essential if your prices are to make any sense and provide a basis for trading. At the current prices, I’m happy to back all the above horses except for Lulamba. My approach means I place a lot of Cheltenham bets, approaching 1,000 each year at my peak. It’s not an approach that works for everyone – managing all my positions when the festival arrives leaves me with the headache of Oliver Reed the morning after the office Christmas party, but it works for me. For those with limited supplies of paracetamol, I suggest you limit yourselves to Kopek Des Bordes for now and Kargese the moment Mullins gives chasing the green light.
Kopek Des Bordes epitomises one of my golden rules about betting on the Cheltenham Festival and that is the best time to bet is as close as possible to the previous year’s meeting. My betting slips show he was still available at 7-1 in May. Unfortunately, that price is long gone, with 4-1 the best you’ll get now after those greedy bookmakers spent the summer trimming the fat off their juiciest prices, but I wouldn’t be happy offering anything over 11-4 if I were on the other side of the fence.
The final piece of the ante-post jigsaw is deciding whether to bet win-only or each-way. For some folk, it purely comes down to the price. 3-1? Win. 20-1? Each-way. But it’s far more nuanced than that, a subject I will return to in future articles, and for now I will simply point out that the Arkle is often a good race for each-way bets, although it has been incredibly frustrating for me over the years. When you’ve snaffled all the big each-way prices while the bookmakers are still offering three places and only five go to post on the day, it really isn’t much fun watching your horse finish fourth.
Saint Calvados at 16-1 in 2018, Allmankind at the same price in 2021 and L’Eau Du Sud this year still keep me awake at night. What are the chances of Kargese bringing up an unwelcome four-timer next March? Let’s not jinx it.
