Ascot - Champions Day

Euronymous

Euronymous

Senior Jockey
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Any fancies? I see a couple in the handicap on the anti thread. I'm not that keen on much myself.

Sprint looks priced about right.

In the Fillies race I've taken 9/1 about Eshaada who is proven on the track and was outstayed over 1m6 last time. Emily Upjohn might be the best filly in the race but she's been off awhile and was poor over c&d in the King George. How the Godolphin filly is second fav I do not know - Appleby doesn't do as well with the fairer sex (we can guess the reason why) and her Princess Royal form was let down at the weekend. I respect Mimikyu as the likely main danger - the rest either had tough races at Longchamp (Sea La Rosa) or are better over shorter (Stay Alert).

Stayers is yawnsville.

QEII looks Inspiral's for the taking, same with Baaeed in the main event although I got a nice price about Bay Bridge when I thought the Haggas horse might go to the Arc.

No interest in the handicap
 
The weather forecast this evening made it look like there might well be biblical rain leading up to the meeting.

I wonder if they'll end up withdrawing Baaeed.

Brigadier Gerard only scrambled home in the race on heavy.
 
What do we fancy the cut off mark will be for the Balmoral?

What percentage chance does Atrium have of making the cut.

Thanks in advance.
 
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There's some quotes about DO's fancy Migration and my pick Atrium in this article by the sporting life, (towards the bottom of the article.)

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing...ations-for-qipco-british-champions-day/204251

Re-Atrium. His trainers acknowledges he is borderline to get in.

At least I can assume he will be declared come Thursday, and therefore if I back him before then I should hopefully get refunded if he doesn't make the cut. This race has been the plan for a while according to his trainer.
 
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Marb said:
What do we fancy the cut off mark will be for the Balmoral?

What percentage chance does Atrium have of making the cut.

Thanks in advance.
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Better than that of Dual Identity who ran an absolute blinder in the Cambridgeshire down the wrong side.
 
barjon said:
Better than that of Dual Identity who ran an absolute blinder in the Cambridgeshire down the wrong side.
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Yes I'd be happy if Dual Identity didn't make the cut in truth.

As it could be another kick myself scenario. I've had too many of them this season.
 
Marb said:
What do we fancy the cut off mark will be for the Balmoral?

What percentage chance does Atrium have of making the cut.

Thanks in advance.
Click to expand...

I've run off the 5-day card with a view to making a start on my figures early. For the Balmoral, I've set my cut-off at #41 (Raising Sand) to give me plenty of leeway for non-runners. I suspect if a lot of rain comes there will be plenty of them and I'd half-expect Atrium to be safe.
 
A one day meeting and they call it Champions seems a bit hyped.

The Group 1 sprint looks third rate with 3 horses all running well at Ascot but flopped since.

Dessies Emily Upjohn tried to get back to the form that saw Frankie throw a way the Oaks.
This look more likely for her than the King George ever did. Quite fancy her to be honest.

I hope Adayar is back to his very best. He's without doubt the best horse Baaeed has ever faced if at his best.
I think it could be much closer than the bookies suggest.

After that flop at Newmarket followed by a hard fought win in France I couldn't back Inspiral at odds on. 6/4 I'd be interested

Atrium is always worth an EW bet in these big handicaps 5 places 1/5 the odds would do me.

But if that's a Champions Day UK racing needs a huge makeover
 
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Outsider said:
I think Baaeed could get beat by Adayar.
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On what grounds,O?
Wm Buick coukd give Adayar the ride of his of his life, but nothing in its form suggests he's a 10f horse.
edit to add And nothing in Baaeed's breeding suggests he won't benefit from a strong pace.
 
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reet hard said:
On what grounds,O?
Wm Buick coukd give Adayar the ride of his of his life, but nothing in its form suggests he's a 10f horse.
edit to add And nothing in Baaeed's breeding suggests he won't benefit from a strong pace.
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The Baaeed/ Bay Bridge sfc is the bet.
 
I've taken another bite at Migration at 14/1, a standout price at B365. Them apart, he's 10/1 tops now, presumably because Paul Kealy put him up in his Weekender piece.
 
G-G said:
I agree. I can see Adayar , if 100%, winning this. Nothing against Baeed at all, but I have a very spot for Adayar and would love him to win this. I'm guessing either way this will be his swansong as well.
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Think I heard Appleby saying he was going to stay in Training next season.
 
Euronymous said:
The Baaeed/ Bay Bridge sfc is the bet.
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Hmm; may well be that Charlie Appleby runs Adayar with his eyes on the 279k 2nd prize,which may well swing the trainers' championship his way.
Just surmise, but entirely feasible given the prize at stake.
 
Looks like Atrium didn't make the cut for the Balmoral.

Jamie Spencer was booked to ride. I don't think he missed out by much.

He is rated 100. Horses rated 100 are no.18 no.19 and no.20 on the card. I am starting to wonder if they actually declared him?
 
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reet hard said:
Hmm; may well be that Charlie Appleby runs Adayar with his eyes on the 279k 2nd prize,which may well swing the trainers' championship his way.
Just surmise, but entirely feasible given the prize at stake.
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As it stands:
Appleby £5m,377,556
Haggas £5m,300,627

Normally don't care about this sort of thing but Haggas has been amazing this year and I hope he wins it.

Boat - Neither represented
Sprint - Creative Force is fav but could be vulnerable, completely different campaign this year £283k for 1st, £107k for 2nd £53k for third
Fillies - Appleby has Eternal Pearl, Haggas has Lilac Road and Sea La Rosa. Don't fancy any of those but adv Haggas here. Same prizepool as sprint

QE2 - Nothing for Haggas, Appleby has Modern Games. Big adv to Godolphin although Inspiral tough to beat £655k for 1st, £248k 2nd, £124k for 3rd and £61k for 4th.

Champion - Baaeed surely wins. Haggas has My Prospero and Dubai Honour also. Appleby Adayar. Personally think Dubai Honour is live for 3rd or 4th money. Prizepool - £737k for 1st, £279 for 2nd, £139 for 3rd, £69k for fourth.

Balmoral - Nothing for Appleby Haggas has a few including one of the reserves.
 
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Marb said:
Looks like Atrium didn't make the cut for the Balmoral.

Jamie Spencer was booked to ride. I don't think he missed out by much.

He is rated 100. Horses rated 100 are no.18 no.19 and no.20 on the card. I am starting to wonder if they actually declared him?
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The chances are he was balloted out. He'd have missed the cut by one. At 3lbs wfa he was in the same situation as three other older horses rated 97, while 98 is the last horse in. After that it would be down to whichever of the 97(100 in Atrium's case) was now currently higher than when the weights came out. If it's still a tie it goes to a ballot.
 
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