Ascot - Champions Day

reet hard said:
Hmm; may well be that Charlie Appleby runs Adayar with his eyes on the 279k 2nd prize,which may well swing the trainers' championship his way.
Just surmise, but entirely feasible given the prize at stake.
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Surely you assume wrongly his eye are on winning and will not be running for second.

The Chapionship would be nice but it's worth nothing as is 279k which is peanuts in compatison to what he'd make extra at stud if he could topple Baaeed
 
Yeah anything marginal or 50/50 is not falling right for me at the moment.

On to the proper racing soon anyway.

What price Rebel Romance for the Breeders Cup Turf if Adayar runs no race on Saturday though?
See what happens eh.
 
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I'm thinking of chancing Fresh in the Sprint.

Good form in big field valuable handicaps at Ascot. Still a bit under the radar and open to more improvement. Definately worth forgiving the last run.

Do I need another psychiatric assessment?
 
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No. I said on my opening post that the Sprint was priced about right but I was just thinking Creative Force and Rohaan at the front end. After those you have Kinross who I can't have over 6 at Ascot, Art Power who only ever wins in soft Irish sprints, Perfect Power and we all know the 3yo sprinters are way below par and then Brad the Brief who hasn't run for ages. These are all too short and so there is some ew value amongst the big prices - I'd personally go with King's Lynn and Garrus rather than Fresh.
 
I'll post these synopses now in case I don't get a chance to on Saturday. As per, they're based on my ratings tables for the respective races:

1.25 - Trueshan’s defeat last time is a concern – it was a race he should have won easily – but his overall form is a class apart. Quickthorn really disappointed me in the Cadran but that might have been the ground. Then again, he must have had a hard race that day, unless he was just prepping for this [more valuable] race. I’ve taken 50/1 Wordsworth. On form, his chance is similar to Waterville’s (7/2). Both prices are probably wrong.

2.00 - The Godolphins could land the forecast here. It might come down to whichever of them acts best in the ground, and that is likely to be last year’s winner in similar ground, Creative Force (10/3). Art Power (6/1) couldn’t follow up his impressive Curragh win in this race last year and might end up repeating the feat after returning to form in Ireland last time. If they go over-fast it could bring Rohaan into the equation but 9/2 is very skinny. The top handicap form has been holding up well all season. Brad The Brief (12/1) appeals much more at the price given his progressive profile.

2.40 - I don’t quite ‘get’ Verry Eleegant’s lofty RPR and Emily Upjohn (7/2) really only has to reproduce her best form to win. She was only 3/1 for the King George and it’s hard to imagine any of the rest of this field being less than 20/1 for that race.

3.20 - This is a very substandard renewal so I fancy Inspiral, if she can settle, to win since I suspect Modern Games might be particularly well suited to the kind of fast ground he gets in America.

4.00 - I want to see Baaeed properly unleashed and would love it if he could be asked to go all the way to the line. This is his last race and a wide-margin win could enhance his stud value. If it’s a strong race, I fancy Adayar to finish a clear second. He’s 7lbs higher on ORs than Bay Bridge for a reason.

4.40 - If the ground stays half-decent this should be a good race, as usual. I’m looking for something that can hit 125 on the scale, and preferably closer to 130. This gives a long-list of:
Bopedro (needs three to come out), Tacarib Bay, Perotto, Magical Morning (with the claim taken into account), Symbolize (ditto), Rhoscolyn, Accidental Agent, Safe Voyage, Stormy Antarctic and Montatham. The fact that Tudhope sticks with Blue For You suggests he should be included.

Escobar won well here last time but I felt maybe the far side (low) had a distinct ground advantage so I’m leaning towards looking for a low draw here too. That would go against Migration, about which I took 14/1 earlier in the week when I saw Buick jocked up and I went in again yesterday when one bookie held that price while the others went blue and 10/1 tops. He’ll do well to win, though, and I might just take a profit. The bookies aren’t giving much away at the moment and I’m going to let the market settle down again before committing any further but I expect to have five or six bets in the race.
 
Tanlic said:
Surely you assume wrongly his eye are on winning and will not be running for second.

The Chapionship would be nice but it's worth nothing as is 279k which is peanuts in compatison to what he'd make extra at stud if he could topple Baaeed
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Have it your way,Fist, but he's 8lb to find on OR's - 10 on RPR's. CA's c80k in front on trainer figures and every little helps.:D
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'll post these synopses now in case I don't get a chance to on Saturday. As per, they're based on my ratings tables for the respective races:

1.25 - Trueshan’s defeat last time is a concern – it was a race he should have won easily – but his overall form is a class apart. Quickthorn really disappointed me in the Cadran but that might have been the ground. Then again, he must have had a hard race that day, unless he was just prepping for this [more valuable] race. I’ve taken 50/1 Wordsworth. On form, his chance is similar to Waterville’s (7/2). Both prices are probably wrong.

2.00 - The Godolphins could land the forecast here. It might come down to whichever of them acts best in the ground, and that is likely to be last year’s winner in similar ground, Creative Force (10/3). Art Power (6/1) couldn’t follow up his impressive Curragh win in this race last year and might end up repeating the feat after returning to form in Ireland last time. If they go over-fast it could bring Rohaan into the equation but 9/2 is very skinny. The top handicap form has been holding up well all season. Brad The Brief (12/1) appeals much more at the price given his progressive profile.

2.40 - I don’t quite ‘get’ Verry Eleegant’s lofty RPR and Emily Upjohn (7/2) really only has to reproduce her best form to win. She was only 3/1 for the King George and it’s hard to imagine any of the rest of this field being less than 20/1 for that race.

3.20 - This is a very substandard renewal so I fancy Inspiral, if she can settle, to win since I suspect Modern Games might be particularly well suited to the kind of fast ground he gets in America.

4.00 - I want to see Baaeed properly unleashed and would love it if he could be asked to go all the way to the line. This is his last race and a wide-margin win could enhance his stud value. If it’s a strong race, I fancy Adayar to finish a clear second. He’s 7lbs higher on ORs than Bay Bridge for a reason.

4.40 - If the ground stays half-decent this should be a good race, as usual. I’m looking for something that can hit 125 on the scale, and preferably closer to 130. This gives a long-list of:
Bopedro (needs three to come out), Tacarib Bay, Perotto, Magical Morning (with the claim taken into account), Symbolize (ditto), Rhoscolyn, Accidental Agent, Safe Voyage, Stormy Antarctic and Montatham. The fact that Tudhope sticks with Blue For You suggests he should be included.

Escobar won well here last time but I felt maybe the far side (low) had a distinct ground advantage so I’m leaning towards looking for a low draw here too. That would go against Migration, about which I took 14/1 earlier in the week when I saw Buick jocked up and I went in again yesterday when one bookie held that price while the others went blue and 10/1 tops. He’ll do well to win, though, and I might just take a profit. The bookies aren’t giving much away at the moment and I’m going to let the market settle down again before committing any further but I expect to have five or six bets in the race.
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Interesting you mention Stormy Antarctic in the last.

I have looked again at the race and he caught my eye. He is a 9 year old but his form over the years is there for all to see. For the most this is a very compressed handicap and if you take out the top 2or 3 the there can't be that much more than 7lbs between the whole field on ratings?

He us much more lightly raced in recent times and a return to be his best form surely would get him in the mix?
 
What about your old cliff horse Astro King? Do you give him a chance in this?

He is one of a handful I'd be prepared to chance.

He has a good record at Ascot aswell. Ran twice..placed twice. Both in bigger fields than this too.
 
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He has his chance on Hunt Cup form to be fair. Could be a big win price on the machine although that might depend on how well Ryan has done.
 
Adayar has a chance. I would definitely back him at 11/2. I'm on Castle Star ante post. Would bet him now if I wasn't .
 
Yes having just looked at the card it looks a better card than I first thought.

I might follow you with Eshaada, Euro. I see Stay Alert runs who you were sweet on earlier in the year when she disappointed at Haydock.

Hughie Morrison gave her a break after that and they won a group 3 with her last time. Maybe she could run a big race and put in a life time best?
 
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I do like Stay Alert but this is so much tougher than her last race (which she won with tons in hand tbf) and I just think one or two will outstay her.
 
Euronymous said:
I do like Stay Alert but this is so much tougher than her last race (which she won with tons in hand tbf) and I just think one or two will outstay her.
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I think there's every chance she will put in a life time best here. You know more about her than me. I reckon I might just stick in her my L63 each way fun bet.
 
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She certainly has a place chance. I don't understand why the Appleby filly is so short so like the sprint there is value in the double figure brigade.
 
Euronymous said:
As it stands:
Appleby £5m,377,556
Haggas £5m,300,627

Normally don't care about this sort of thing but Haggas has been amazing this year and I hope he wins it.

Boat - Neither represented
Sprint - Creative Force is fav but could be vulnerable, completely different campaign this year £283k for 1st, £107k for 2nd £53k for third
Fillies - Appleby has Eternal Pearl, Haggas has Lilac Road and Sea La Rosa. Don't fancy any of those but adv Haggas here. Same prizepool as sprint

QE2 - Nothing for Haggas, Appleby has Modern Games. Big adv to Godolphin although Inspiral tough to beat £655k for 1st, £248k 2nd, £124k for 3rd and £61k for 4th.

Champion - Baaeed surely wins. Haggas has My Prospero and Dubai Honour also. Appleby Adayar. Personally think Dubai Honour is live for 3rd or 4th money. Prizepool - £737k for 1st, £279 for 2nd, £139 for 3rd, £69k for fourth.

Balmoral - Nothing for Appleby Haggas has a few including one of the reserves.
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I hope Haggas wins it, too - with only half the horse power of CA.
The trainers' championship has a pool of 1.3m,which either stable would welcome a portion of.
 
Had a small ew on Trawlerman (22/1) in the first.
Ebor winner, unproven at this level but certainly improving, and bred to stay every yard.
 
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