Shelir's stated targets in mid July were the Goodwood Mile and the Clipper Logistics (straight from O'Meara's mouth). So basically he told us he thought Shelir was good enough to mix it in high quality handicap company. Was only beat 2 lengths in the Goodwood. Has traditionally been a prominent racer, most times when he hit softish ground ran well against some big enough names.
I think they worked out that holding him up was the ideal tactic during the win at Ripon (good ground but looked like he just beat up on inferior opponents) which was why JW took a pull at the start today.
It's real easy in hindsight, but actually you could argue the writing was faintly on the wall. Personally, I thought Rhoscolyn was the one today. You live and learn!
Next season the call may be to look for a string of prominent-run losses and try to second guess (or watch in-running) for the hold-up.