Ascot Saturday

betsmate

betsmate

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1.05 VICTORCHANDLER.COM HOLLOWAY'S HURDLE (LIMITED HANDICAP) GRADE 2 (CLASS 1)

18 SCRIPTWRITER 10-4 J Howard Johnson Denis O´Regan

Highlight of his flat form was a listed handicap win, but also picked up a valuable handicap at Goodwood over 14f, which suggests he might appreciate this step up in trip. Unexposed over hurdles but wrapped up last season with a place in graded novice company when the stable was reputedly under a cloud. Johnson has a 22% strike rate over hurdles this season with a couple of winners last Saturday. In receipt of a ton of weight from the favourite – who represents a whole bunch of older and exposed runners.

20/1 E/W ¼ 1,2,3,4


1.40 MONTPELIER GROUP LIGHTNING NOVICES' CHASE GRADE 2 (CLASS 1)

1 CALGARY BAY 11-7 Miss H C Knight Dominic Elsworth

I’m no fan of Henrietta Knight as a trainer, but I’m loathed to back a Nicholls odds-on shot on a Saturday who is one from four in Britain and who the only time he encountered ground without the word soft in it finished outside the top ten. Cool Operator looks a class below this level and the rest are making up the numbers, so that leaves us with Calgary Bay by default? Calgary Bay has a first and two seconds on good ground and succeeded in a small field last time out where the Nicholls horse failed. Is this enough to overcome the six-pound concession?
Back down in trip indicates that the batty one thinks that 2m is the home for the horse this season. If forced…

15/8 Win (although the more Saturday money comes for the Nicholls runner, the better proposition he becomes)


2.15 VICTOR CHANDLER CHASE (REGISTERED AS THE CLARENCE HOUSE CHASE) GRADE 1 (CLASS 1)

1 MAHOGANY BLAZE 11-7 N A Twiston-Davies P J Brennan

Master Minded is supposed to be half decent, but this is National Hunt so we’re here for betting not the spectacle. Petit Robin is the second favourite, but I can’t have that after failing to beat Fiepes Shuffle last time after the best horses in the race arguably under-performed and facing another step up in class here. Or Noir De Somoza is interesting, but encountering the Ascot motorway after all that lovely French mud will be a shock. I’d love to make a case for Natal… but I can’t. Which leaves me with Mahogany Blaze. He was in the process of running a huge race in the Tingle Creek and just over a year ago was picking up a G2 Novice Chase. Has placed form behind Master Minded already. Still only seven and showed he likes Ascot with a decent weight-carrying performance back in November. Will enjoy the ground.

40/1 Win and an Exacta with Master Minded


2.50 WARFIELD MARES' HURDLE GRADE 2 (CLASS 1)

9 UNITED 11-0 Mrs L Wadham Dominic Elsworth

How is this a Grade 2 when the majority of the field have been exposed plodding round Market Rasen, Fontwell and Huntingdon? In betting without the favourite, I might make a case for Accordello; but given that the Reveley horse is looking to turn around a 25 length and 10lb beating by the one class horse in the race, I really can’t look anywhere else. With a win at this level in the bag last season and a winning start already to 08-09 will United really be odds-against as forecast?

8/7 Win (at time posted on Betfair). Forecast 5/4
 
Does anyone else see the logic in Calgary Bay being second favourite for this, despite the fact he is shorter than Free World for the Arkle, and it not being as if Ascot isn't a stiff enough 2 miles? I think he's an astounding price tomorrow.

Agree with BM in not being a Knight fan but I also like Somersby in the last as well
 
Not sure Calgary Bay has the bottle for this (and I know David Johnson at least is with me!!) so I'll probably sit the race out if Free World goes off evens or thereabouts.
 
I think HK could have a very good day tomorrow and that includes Harris Bay which is priced for a speculative punt.
 
I'd prefer Calgary Bay to Free World if CB is up for it.

What I really want to know is when is Araldur coming out again?

I think the ground could well be softer than people are expecting; it was hammering down in the early hours of the morning and for a few hours too. It is supposed to be very windy later though and it's picking up already.
 
Not Ascot but at Naas today I fancy Equus Maximus in the novice chase and have backed Give It Time quite heavily in the big hurdle.
 
Like Coe 3-35 Haydock today, Chivalry in the big handicap hurdle and Im with Gal on the 2 in Ireland. Jessies Dream should run well in the last but I would perfer better ground.
 
Glasker Mill - 1.55 @ Haydock

Took some 12s on this earlier. Would have won earlier in the season when canteirng but making a bad mistake in a strong handicap and its last run is best forgotten. Good effort start of the year at Cheltenham and dropped nicely in weights since. Yard back in good form and looks solid ew.
 
Have Backed Cousin Vinny, Zaynar and master minded in a treble at 5/4.

My other fancies today are,

United 2.50 NAP
Think this is a superb bet at evens as has already been pointed out.

Snap Tie 1.20 Haydock
The second best bet of today. Was pretty impressed by him the last day, andim willing to back him today given that i think Afsoun isnt as good as he was, and i was never a big fan anyway, dont know why, and that im not gone on Issaquah either.

Have then in a double as well, and have done a series of multiple bets with the following two,

Its a mans world 12.45...cos it is...ah no, i think there is more to come from this horse, and i think that it wont find much better oppurtunitys than today. (prob find one too good knowin me)

Calgary bay, Im worried about the drop back in trip around here...might get done for toe. But i really like the horse, so have had him in my four for the day.

Thats the stakes so far. I liek the tow horses Gal has mentioned, but i have had no bet on them yet...YET

I also like Boomshakalaka today. I will be backing that with Geraghty aboard. Have to admit that i had gone off Barry, haveing been one of his biggest fans from Day1. He has somewhat redeemed my faith this year so far. Lets hope he doesnt damage our relationship today!!
 
Conditions are desperate at Naas. Heavy ground, howling wind and rain. Have backed the Meade horse (only a small interest) in case these factors put CV off his game....wouldn't blame him!
 
jairducochetfan said:
Does anyone else see the logic in Calgary Bay being second favourite for this, despite the fact he is shorter than Free World for the Arkle, and it not being as if Ascot isn't a stiff enough 2 miles? I think he's an astounding price tomorrow.
Click to expand...

Such is the weight for age scale that they will race off levels in the Arkle whilst Free World receives 6 lb today.
 
Galileo said:
Conditions are desperate at Naas. Heavy ground, howling wind and rain. Have backed the Meade horse (only a small interest) in case these factors put CV off his game....wouldn't blame him!
Click to expand...

More than happy to see him win again. Not sure he will have learnt much from that other than Naas is a severe test in those sort of conditions! Not the biggest of horses but certainly has the look of a future chaser in the making given the shape he produces over his hurdles.
 
the 2.40 ??????????

It's 1.52, what was the horse we can all get on it for 2.40 :)

I presume you mean't 1.40, hard lines.
 
Flame said:
Glasker Mill - 1.55 @ Haydock

Took some 12s on this earlier. Would have won earlier in the season when canteirng but making a bad mistake in a strong handicap and its last run is best forgotten. Good effort start of the year at Cheltenham and dropped nicely in weights since. Yard back in good form and looks solid ew.
Click to expand...

:( Gutted, thought he was getting up as well. Ew landed but the win would have been so much sweeter.
 
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