Ascot Saturday..

M

Marb

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Can Unowhatimeanharry serve up a seven timer?

He's priced to do so on the early shows at just under 2/1.There's a handful of horses that probably can't win, but might at least let Harry know that he's been in a race. Personally I reckon Ballyoptic is the one to run a big race against Harry. Ballyoptic wasn't his usual consistent winning self at Wetherby when falling in October. He ran against Unowhatimeanharry at Newbury, hitting a serious flat spot between last two flights, but was staying on very strongly towards the finish, giving the impression he'll come on a ton for that.
How they both handle Ascot, which neither has been round before, might be important too. Maybe the prices will be nearer 5/2 / 9/2 on Saturday, as opposed to 7/4 / 7/1, that they are now. Who knows.

I had a look at the big handicap hurdle. Who Dares Wins and Diego Du Charmil are two that look open to more progress off from current ratings (149 & 141). Diego is probably the one for me at current prices, (20/1), but we'll see whats declared first. Stupidly perhaps I'm against the anti-post favourite Campeador, with two fat effs' next to his name!
 
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If Thistlecrack sticks to fences, nothing will get within sniffing distance of Harry.

This one is another genuinely top class stayer with World Hurdle winner written all over him. It's only the prospect of Thistlecrack's chasing career going tits up that's keeping me from getting wired in at 6/1.
 
Fair enough DO.
Harry may still win the World Hurdle, after getting beat a short head by Ballyoptic on Saturday. :)
 
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Ballyoptic at 7/1 for me -I seriously respect the fav but Ballyoptic looks like he needs a real test of stamina and in my opinion the Long Walk is the stiffest test for Grade 1 hurdlers.I also like the fact that NTD is in form.
 
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Ballyoptic was race fit last time. Harry was having his seasonal debut and is arguably the more likely to improve.

I wasn't convinced about Harry until I saw that performance. It was deeply impressive how he sauntered clear before easing down.

Ballyoptic might be a 160 waiting to happen. I reckon Harry is a 170+ animal waiting to happen if he isn't already there.

Obviously that doesn't mean Harry will win on Saturday because he's only flesh and blood and he missed an engagement because of the ground prior to Newbury. But ceteris paribus I don't see how he can't go through the rest of the season unbeaten bar some unforeseen mishap.

(Yes, covering my erse right left and centre, there.:))
 
Race fit yes, but he was coming back from a heavy fall. It simply wasn't his day at Newbury.

To answer your point about improvement, having had just the six starts over hurdles, I'm significantly more confident Ballyoptic will improve another 7-10lbs by the end of the season, than I am about Harry, who will be having his eighteenth start on Saturday.
 
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Don't know if he'll be left in tomorrow, but Go Conquer looks massively overpriced at 25s for the Silver Cup. Lightly-raced and improving, produced a career best last time when pulling miles clear with Present Man who won a Grade 2 novice at Donc on Sat, a run that can be upgraded massively given how badly he jumped out to his right. Most of his potential opponents look more like candidates for a veteran's chase. Fingers crossed he stays in tomorrow, otherwise I've done my dough.

Have thrown a few quid at Mick Jazz in the competitive 2m handicap as well. Again don't know he definitely runs, but he's going the right way since joining Elliott, looks well treated on bits and pieces of his juvenile form and lots to like about his last run, likely to have been bang there but for a blunder 2 out and getting hampered by his stablemate's fall at the last. He's a proper strong traveller that looks like he wants burying in a big field and bringing late, so hopefully Saturday he should get such conditions.
 
davidjohnson said:
Don't know if he'll be left in tomorrow, but Go Conquer looks massively overpriced at 25s for the Silver Cup. Lightly-raced and improving, produced a career best last time when pulling miles clear with Present Man who won a Grade 2 novice at Donc on Sat, a run that can be upgraded massively given how badly he jumped out to his right. Most of his potential opponents look more like candidates for a veteran's chase. Fingers crossed he stays in tomorrow, otherwise I've done my dough.

Have thrown a few quid at Mick Jazz in the competitive 2m handicap as well. Again don't know he definitely runs, but he's going the right way since joining Elliott, looks well treated on bits and pieces of his juvenile form and lots to like about his last run, likely to have been bang there but for a blunder 2 out and getting hampered by his stablemate's fall at the last. He's a proper strong traveller that looks like he wants burying in a big field and bringing late, so hopefully Saturday he should get such conditions.
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Cheers DJ, nice write up as always. Go Conquer is one I have in the tracker myself. What time tomorrow can we expect declarations?
 
Confirmations should filter through just after lunch tomorrow. I might have done my dough, but can see the chase cutting up a fair bit, so prepared to take the chance at the odds.
 
My bets will very much depend on the ground. If we get some rain will back Vyta Du Roc in the handicap chase and Le Rocher in the handicap hurdle.
 
I'll be quite happy to take-on Unowhatimeanharry with Snow Falcon at over three times the price, if the Meade horse is declared.

SF was still tanking along when falling at Newbury, and I don't think the result is quite as good as it's being cracked up to be.

Le Rocher has certainly been given a chance by the handicapper off 137, but the form of his comeback has not worked out. He would want to come on a fair whack from that (not impossible after so long off the track beforehand), and he would want to see plenty of rain before Saturday too.
 
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Emma Connolly ‏@emmacbutch <small class="time" style="font-size: 13px; color: rgb(136, 153, 166);"> Dec 5</small>
@NHByTheBollocks @Oddsonjolly @8Palfrey8 he's had an easy week . Cantered this morn and he's
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#rollonxmas


Reply by Meade's assistant trainer when I asked about Snow Falcon's well being earlier in the week
 
Not at present, 3 miler at Leopardstown is the plan. He's a tidy price for the World Hurdle but he's had 6 runs already and backing one of Meade's who's been that busy before the turn of the year makes me hesitant to commit.
 
Grasshopper said:
I'll be quite happy to take-on Unowhatimeanharry with Snow Falcon at over three times the price, if the Meade horse is declared.

SF was still tanking along when falling at Newbury, and I don't think the result is quite as good as it's being cracked up to be.

Le Rocher has certainly been given a chance by the handicapper off 137, but the form of his comeback has not worked out. He would want to come on a fair whack from that (not impossible after so long off the track beforehand), and he would want to see plenty of rain before Saturday too.
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Agree 100%, easy to say as it fell, but Snow Falcon was absouloutely flying still on the Bridle until the fall and a heavy one at that.

If declared I'll be backing Snow Falcon
 
Haven't seen the fall of Snow Falcon but if he was going as well as you guys reckon he's not coming over is he? Not at 8/1 he's not.

Considering the bookies have Yanworth and Vroum Vroum Mag in the betting to make up the numbers it looks like being a poorly contested race and 7/4 Harry might be worth taking now.
 
How do you all reckon Yanworth would do if he lined up on Saturday?

What price would he be?
 
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Power of the jockey for sure

On what is known, I'd imagine he wouldn't of picked Yanworth until he proved that he stayed

In a match bet would Yanworth have beaten the New One at the weekend?
 
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I agree with Tanlic, at the price Harry is a penalty kick. The others are almost certain not to line up anyway.
 
davidjohnson said:
Confirmations should filter through just after lunch tomorrow. I might have done my dough, but can see the chase cutting up a fair bit, so prepared to take the chance at the odds.
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I see he's now 16/1 on odds checker DJ. And most bookies have removed betting. Declarations must be imminent.
 
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