Ascot Saturday..

Won the Prix D'Automne in typically Heavy ground at Auteuil last month, finishing 16L ahead of Aubusson, to give you a point-of-reference. Has same sire as Beuveur D'Air.

Is a guaranteed stayer at the trip (moreso than Kotkikova), but might want it softer than predicted.
 
Not sure if he's an intended runner this weekend but would certainly give Un Temps Pour Tout an each way chance should he turn up. It doesn't look the strongest race, he seems a better hurdler than chaser and he may find getting on the pace here a touch easier than in the Hennessy.
 
Perpetual said:
Cheers Grassy. Plenty of rain around at the moment, so could well be softish at the weekend
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FWIW Perp, Timeform rated ADL at 160 in Chasers & Hurdlers last year. Uknowhatimeanharry is now officially-rated 165. For beating Ballyoptic 6L at level-weights? That's too high, surely?

Whilst I wouldn't be daft enough to dismiss UKWIMH's chance in the Long Walk (he is clearly very smart), I think he'd be a lot closer to the level of the French horse (and the mare, getting weight), than the betting implies. Ptit Zig is probably being o ver-looked to an extent too. I'd say all three are better value bets than the jolly, at current prices.
 
True, DO, but I just think it was a case of a good horse winning a bad race.......or at least it became a bad race when Snow Falcon came down.

Take the winner out and Ballyhandy has beaten Menorah - rising 12yo and running over hurdles for the first time in 5 years - by the equivalent of about 9L. That's the true measure of the opposition UNWIMH faced at Newbury, and if they all stand their ground, the Ascot field should be immeasurably harder to beat. That's not to say he can't beat them - but I don't think 11/8 is an accurate reflection of his 'superiority', if I can put it that way.
 
ADL’s only 6 with 9 starts so could still be on the upgrade. I’ve backed him EW, so hopefully they declare him with Jacob on board
 
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Yes, I don't dispute that SF was seriously outrunning his OR when he came down and I can accept that he would probably have beaten Ballyoptic but it was still three out when he came down with plenty of racing still to be done.

I wouldn't rush to diss the form on account of Menorah. He was in good form over fences and ran as though on good terms with himself. His RPR on the day (150) was still 8lbs below his OR on the day and 12lbs below his peak hurdles OR and 19lbs below his peak chase OR. I reckon that tells us he wasn't going to win (even though I backed him on the day as an ew value shout) and is a fair enough evaluation of his run on the day.

As for what harry might face on Saturday, to be honest I haven't looked yet but considering the usual posse of stayers like Reve De Sivola are around the 162 mark, I don't see what harry has to fear. Thistlecrack is the exception as he clearly in the 170s and I wouldn't rule out the prospect that harry might get close to that level sooner rather than later.
 
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You can interpret it a million different ways, as with most lines of form, DO, so no issues with your view on things.

I'm still parsimonious when it comes to awarding high ratings, and 165 is a high-rating any way I look at it. I want form to be absolutely rock-solid before I'm comfortable awarding a rating at that level, and I just can't have the Long Distance Hurdle in that category. Assuming they all (or most, at least) stand their ground, then I'll obviously reconsider if UNWIMH wins, as I do think it's a much stronger race this time.
 
Yes, I meant to mention the different interpretations in my previous post. That's what, I suppose, helps make the market. It reflects different interpretations of the same evidence.

I'll probably get through Saturday's race later today or tomorrow and will let you know what I come up with so we can compare/contrast our interpretations.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes, I meant to mention the different interpretations in my previous post. That's what, I suppose, helps make the market. It reflects different interpretations of the same evidence.

I'll probably get through Saturday's race later today or tomorrow and will let you know what I come up with so we can compare/contrast our interpretations.
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:cool:
 
To Perpetual:

Desert Orchid said:
Nah, that would be "fuuck".

The second, third, fourth and fifth would be "off", "you", "Sassenach" and "cuunt". :)

(Saying "youse" is something we learn later.)
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That's what you call "obloquy". :)

See how this site can be dead educational?
 
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Whos going there Saturday then chaps. You could join me in the owners room after Minella Daddy does his stuff in the Silver Cup. I think we might be the Jolly
 
davidjohnson said:
Think it's the first word a Scotsman learns :lol:
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Blatant racism from Jonners, here, and him from Yorkshire too, where they wouldn't give you the breath off their dog, to keep your mitts warm on a cold winter's night.

Shocking scenes. Discommodious, even.
 
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Don't take too much notice of what was behind him, the time of Harry's last race was exceptional and he easily beat his OR. He's very smart, and it would take an exceptional one to beat him here or at the Festival.

Ballyoptic is unexposed and the French horse is a comparative unknown quantity so there are risks, but on balance I'd say the 7/4 was an excellent price.
 
You can say owt you want. I still think Harry'll win meseh.

Now I'll put me feet up and pour a guiness. :ninja:
 
Marble said:
If Ch'tibelllo goes to Kempton, does he have a squeak? He has at least a stone to find on ratings to get near Faugheen, The New One, and Yanworth.

I reckon he'll find some of those pounds as I reckon he's clearly a lot better than 145, but admittedly its still a very tall order.
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Anyone know when entries are made for the Christmas Hurdle, or when the next declaration stage is?

I'm a bit disappointed only a handful of bookies have priced it up.
 
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