Ascot Take Outs - Day 5

barjon

barjon

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BEDTIME STORY
Saturday, Chesham WON

Wow! As befits her dad this was a real Frankelesque performance and Aiden O’Brien must think he’s won the lottery with this one and Fairy Godmother under his roof. She looks seriously good.


“We never let BEDTIME STORY go before. This was the first time she was asked to stretch. Ryan said he couldn't believe it; he said everyone fell away, he said 'go on', and she just took off. He didn't even give her a slap down the shoulder. We thought she was probably a Group One filly, but we hadn't looked - thinking is one thing and seeing is another, so everyone saw it together today. It was the first time she was ever dropped down, really. There are plenty of races for them all [asked how they will keep Fairy Godmother and Bedtime Story apart], I think. She'll be staying at seven furlongs, obviously. It's unusual on fast ground to do that [win by so far]. She was very impressive when she won first time. We had another filly in it and she got banged off at the rails, and this one won nicely; there were obviously some nice fillies in it “- Aidan O'Brien, trainer.


SWINGALONG
Saturday, Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee

She led them along from the get go and didn’t flinch when she was collared to keep on for a deserved second.


PALACE GREEN
Saturday, Golden Gates 6th

Looked full of running when repeatedly short of room when push came to shove and couldn’t find a way through. Had to give up the ghost, but would have been much closer otherwise.



And that’s it :D
 
If Orazio isnt a take away I don't know what is! Fastest finishing horse I've ever seen in a Wokingham. Last to nearly first given a couple more strides..

He'll be a solid group 3 or 2 horse next year after Charlie lands a valuable handicap or two in the next few months.
 
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We were a little bit concerned about the ground coming into the race, and Orazio probably was just a little bit indecisive on the ground to start with. Then once he passed one horse, he flew home. He is a pretty decent horse and another few strides, he would have won. Delighted with him and there are a good few options now going forwards. He is in the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket, we will have a look at that. There are some nice handicaps going forwards and it would be nice to hopefully end up in Group company at some stage - Charlie Hills, trainer.
 
I'm not giving up on The Wizard of eyes ran on really well.but really looks as if he needs further.
Not entered for the Bunbury Cup but is in the July Cup.
 
Middle Earth seemed to miss the break and did well to place in the circumstances I thought. Hard to tell what the problem was as the Sporting Life replay was using a camera angle focused on the back of the stalls as they opened
 
barjon said:
BEDTIME STORY
Saturday, Chesham WON

Wow! As befits her dad this was a real Frankelesque performance and Aiden O’Brien must think he’s won the lottery with this one and Fairy Godmother under his roof. She looks seriously good.


“We never let BEDTIME STORY go before. This was the first time she was asked to stretch. Ryan said he couldn't believe it; he said everyone fell away, he said 'go on', and she just took off. He didn't even give her a slap down the shoulder. We thought she was probably a Group One filly, but we hadn't looked - thinking is one thing and seeing is another, so everyone saw it together today. It was the first time she was ever dropped down, really. There are plenty of races for them all [asked how they will keep Fairy Godmother and Bedtime Story apart], I think. She'll be staying at seven furlongs, obviously. It's unusual on fast ground to do that [win by so far]. She was very impressive when she won first time. We had another filly in it and she got banged off at the rails, and this one won nicely; there were obviously some nice fillies in it “- Aidan O'Brien, trainer.


SWINGALONG
Saturday, Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee

She led them along from the get go and didn’t flinch when she was collared to keep on for a deserved second.


PALACE GREEN
Saturday, Golden Gates 6th

Looked full of running when repeatedly short of room when push came to shove and couldn’t find a way through. Had to give up the ghost, but would have been much closer otherwise.



And that’s it :D
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I am at a loss here. Bedtime Story wins over 7 furlongs without being asked a serious question while Fairy Godmother shows loads of speed to win from an impossible position over 6f. So Aiden has come to the conclusion the 6f winner is a miler but the 7f winner is not......Her dam Mecca Angel has already produced a mile winner......does AOB's statement make sense to anyone?
 
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Loved what Bedtime Story did on debut but she was ridiculous in the Chesham.
She wins the Guineas if turning up.
May stretch out to 10 later in the season.

Fairy Godmother will be on the limit to get the mile I reckon.
 
I was genuinely wowed by Bedtime story but now that I've had a closer look at the race I suspect the opposition was mince. On my figures the time is modest.

I must re-check was Simon Rowlands says.
 
BS's rivals "included a lot of deadwood", says SR but my time ratings are getting her nowhere near the 115 he has for her. I'm 10lbs shy of that.

Edit - SR appears to be limiting his findings to a direct comparison with Haatem's Jersey over CD but I had another look at my figures for the whole card and I have the Jersey as moderately run. Khaadem's race was run to suit pretty much him and him alone but it was overall by far the fastest comparative time of the day. Using the going allowance from Khaadem's race and applying it across all the races on the straight course makes the Chesham slow, the Jersey a bit slow and the Wokingham marginally slow relative to the collateral form ratings.

But the visuals for Bedtime Story were gobsmacking.
 
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Oppo may not have been all that I agree. Think you are both underplaying her performance though!
In a better race and up a furlong...Oh yes please.
 
Timeform have Bedtime Story well ahead of Fairy Godmother with the two of them miles ahead of anything else. So, if the 2yo are a inferior bunch then those two are still easily the best seen so far and if the 2yo are an averagely decent bunch then those two are something special.


TWO-YEAR-OLDS

116pBEDTIME STORY (f)

112pFAIRY GODMOTHER (f)

104pRASHABAR104pSHAREHOLDER103pAIN'T NOBODY103pLEOVANNI (f)103WHISTLEJACKET102pARABIE102pHEAVENS GATE (f)102pSIMMERING (f)101PTUNBRIDGE WELLS101WEISSMULLER100TROPICAL STORM100VINGEGAARD99pAESTERIUS99ARIZONA BLAZE99GABALDON98pCOLUMNIST98pELECTROLYTE
97pANCIENT TRUTH97pMIGHTY ERIU (f)97pTHE STRIKIN VIKING
 
SR, I notice, also gives Khaadem 117 (same as me) with no upgrade, which gives me confidence that I'm on the right path in using that race as a marker for the going.

He says: Fairy Godmother’s final 2f (24.30s) was not scintillatingly fast in a race in which they had gone a solid pace throughout. But her final 1f (12.28s), at a stage when most horses are fatiguing, was seriously impressive in relative terms.

And of Bedtime Story: Her final two furlongs went by in 23.88s (104.1% finishing speed) and her final furlong in 12.32s (100.9% FS), the latter just 0.04s slower than Fairy Godmother had managed at a furlong shorter the day before.

So, running over a furlong further, BS has covered the final two furlongs 0.42s (about two and a half lengths) faster and the final furlong 0.04s (about a neck) slower - under a hands-and-heels ride - than FG.

SR gives FG a 5lbs upgrade but doesn't mention one for BS. I'd be surprised if one wasn't involved, looking at those figures again. It would have to be at least 4lbs. I do think at times SR likes to keep some things to himself (and why not, he punts too).

Another factor is that we probably use different standard times.

I have FG on a raw (unadjusted for upgrades or wfa) of 95, which is very smart; not many juveniles get 100 at this time of the year.

BS is 'only' 85 raw.

I checked the time ratings using the RP standard times and came up with different figures.

They put FG and BS on 98 and 95 (raw) respectively so FG still comes out 'faster' therefore it's down to the upgrades to determine the final ratings.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I was genuinely wowed by Bedtime story but now that I've had a closer look at the race I suspect the opposition was mince. On my figures the time is modest.

I must re-check was Simon Rowlands says.
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I hope you are wrong but I think back to what Danielle did in her race before Lingfield and got my fingers burned.........But this girl did at Ascot what Danielle couldn't do at Lingfield is bred to be a real superstar and so far really looks the part
 
barjon said:
Timeform have Bedtime Story well ahead of Fairy Godmother with the two of them miles ahead of anything else. So, if the 2yo are a inferior bunch then those two are still easily the best seen so far and if the 2yo are an averagely decent bunch then those two are something special.


TWO-YEAR-OLDS

116pBEDTIME STORY (f)

112pFAIRY GODMOTHER (f)

104pRASHABAR104pSHAREHOLDER103pAIN'T NOBODY103pLEOVANNI (f)103WHISTLEJACKET102pARABIE102pHEAVENS GATE (f)102pSIMMERING (f)101PTUNBRIDGE WELLS101WEISSMULLER100TROPICAL STORM100VINGEGAARD99pAESTERIUS99ARIZONA BLAZE99GABALDON98pCOLUMNIST98pELECTROLYTE
97pANCIENT TRUTH97pMIGHTY ERIU (f)97pTHE STRIKIN VIKING
Click to expand...

I checked my bookmark last night hoping for an update but it was still showing 11 June but on going in a moment ago I see it has been updated for the Ascot races:

www.timeform.com

Timeform's Top Flat horses in Britain and Ireland

Current No 1 in Britain and Ireland are Kyprios and White Birch, rated 128.
www.timeform.com www.timeform.com
 
Just looking at those TF 2yo ratings, I've succumbed to the temptation to back Tunbridge Wells for the 2000G (33/1). It's engaged in the Railway this weekend as well as the Phoenix and Aidan often runs his best in one of those. (Obviously he has several engaged.)
 
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