AW Winter 2016/17

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davidjohnson

At the Start
Joined
Jun 29, 2007
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Doesn't seem to be an appropriate thread to discuss some of the winter Flat stuff, so thought I'd start one and see if there's much interest.

Thought the Wild Flower at Kempton on Wednesday is a belter, the sort of race you'd expect at HQ or Ascot on a Saturday afternoon rather than an evening meeting at Kempton.

Chemical Charge, Curbyyourenthusiasm and Star Storm all strong contenders, Chemical Charge back with Beckett and looking very much ready for the step up to 12f now. Star Storm is a G3 winner on turf and was probably a bit unlucky not to get the verdict in a similar race over C&D last time after losing out in a barging match with Western Hymn. Curbyourenthusiasm got back on track when winning at Chelsmford and did well there given how much ground he conceded in a steadily-run race. I'd expect him to have the toe to cope back in trip. Can certainly see why its a 9/2 the field race.

The one that made least appeal at single figs was Bess of Hardwick. Luca's horses remain chronically overbet in my opinion despite a pretty ordinary year and don't think the race she won at Lingfield was up to much. Be surprised if she doesn't find a few too good under her penalty. The one that interests me most os Lady of Camelot. Draw isn't ideal and she's unproven on poly, but I think she just about that the best form. I like the Newmarket run where she split G1 winner Journey and Australian G2 winner Beautiful Romance in September and she well at Doncaster on her most recent start, conceding first run and finishing best. The step back up to 12f will suit and she looks a little overpriced at 8/1 to me.
 
Nice to see you David, I won't contribute much to this thread as its not really my thing but it's always a treat to read your insight on the forum.
 
Good thread, DJ, though it's in the lap of the gods how well it will be supported.
Cracking listed tomorrow, and I'll be with Star Storm all the way. He and Western Hymn sat out the back in his last race, but as soon as they let the handbrakes off there were only ever 2 horses in it. Not hard to believe WH was revitalised by the first time visor, as he ran his best race since 3rd in the POW, and that form's good enough to see these off. Slight worry about the possible lack of pace, but the current 4/1 compensates.
 
I'm certainly interested in Lady Of Camelot for this as she's become something of a cliff horse for me. I think they've struggled to work out her best trip. Ridden prominently at Newbury, she looked like she didn't quite get home. Dropped in trip and dropped out at Donny, she looked like a filly who'd benefit from further. I backed her both times. The perfect combination may well be waiting tactics over 12f and I imagine that's what they'll do with her today.
 
Good to see you dropping in, DJ.....figured you'd been lost forever to the Twittersphere.

Shame about the subject matter. ;)

:cool:
 
SMP going straight from Class4 to Listed for Cliff Face is worth taking note, especially at likely big price.

SMP is 6/26 111% roi at Listed aw and also has had a double-figure priced winner doing the same jump in class.
 
Certainly read the market well Reet. Surprised it's a 9/4, 13/2 bar race, for all he's the one with fewest questions to answer.
 
davidjohnson said:
Certainly read the market well Reet. Surprised it's a 9/4, 13/2 bar race, for all he's the one with fewest questions to answer.
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Aye: seems they're expecting improvement from his aw debut. Good to see you've outed Grass as a closet sand fan. :)
See yours as the main danger, and it's looking a lively forecast between the 2, imo.
 
davidjohnson said:
Doesn't seem to be an appropriate thread to discuss some of the winter Flat stuff, so thought I'd start one and see if there's much interest.

Thought the Wild Flower at Kempton on Wednesday is a belter, the sort of race you'd expect at HQ or Ascot on a Saturday afternoon rather than an evening meeting at Kempton.

Chemical Charge, Curbyyourenthusiasm and Star Storm all strong contenders, Chemical Charge back with Beckett and looking very much ready for the step up to 12f now. Star Storm is a G3 winner on turf and was probably a bit unlucky not to get the verdict in a similar race over C&D last time after losing out in a barging match with Western Hymn. Curbyourenthusiasm got back on track when winning at Chelsmford and did well there given how much ground he conceded in a steadily-run race. I'd expect him to have the toe to cope back in trip. Can certainly see why its a 9/2 the field race.

The one that made least appeal at single figs was Bess of Hardwick. Luca's horses remain chronically overbet in my opinion despite a pretty ordinary year and don't think the race she won at Lingfield was up to much. Be surprised if she doesn't find a few too good under her penalty. The one that interests me most os Lady of Camelot. Draw isn't ideal and she's unproven on poly, but I think she just about that the best form. I like the Newmarket run where she split G1 winner Journey and Australian G2 winner Beautiful Romance in September and she well at Doncaster on her most recent start, conceding first run and finishing best. The step back up to 12f will suit and she looks a little overpriced at 8/1 to me.
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Great write up, but no mention of the winner, Prince Of Arran, unfortunately. :)
 
That went well!:rolleyes:
Ruined by the slow pace imo, but at least the race generated some interest = onward and upwards.
 
Winner was a complete unknown quantity but further proof that Palmer really has to be taken seriously with such animals.

Nothing quite of that level today but a couple of races interest me at Chelmsford.

The nursery at 4.55 sees the Prescott horse in at a short price, and while a reproduction of his Newcastle form should see him go well, he's had a go at the trip and may not be open to the same progress at it as one or 2 of his rivals. Peace and Plenty shaped like a stayer at Wolverhampton last time and will be better at this trip but does need to improve given how far he was beaten at Wolverhampton last time and Reynardo de Silver looks even more interesting. His best effort came at this track on Monday and while he was making headway as the leaders were slowing down, he looked for all the world as though this longer trip will suit. The time for the race on Monday was very good for the grade and he can give the fav a scare. If you can bet with Hills, they have a concession of money back as a free bet if 2nd to the fav at Chelmsford tonight (up to £25), which looks fair in this race.

The 6.55 has more pace in there than is typical for an AW staying race and am hoping that will suit Free Bounty best. Have to confess in these type of races I tend to concentrate on 3-y-os pretty much to the exception of older horses - studies show that 3-y-os still win far more of these races than they should by chance if it was a level playing field. At first glance he looks a bit exposed, but since his win, it's only been 3-y-os that he's found too good and he proper ran into one over C&D last time. I think given a well-run race, there's still more to come from him, and he's a couple of points too big at around 6/1.
 
One for tomorrow

Dazacam - 5:45 Wolves @ 7/1

Has shown tremendous early pace in his races over 6f & will be suited by the drop back to 5f tomorrow. He'll take some catching off his current mark IMO.
 
davidjohnson said:
Winner was a complete unknown quantity but further proof that Palmer really has to be taken seriously with such animals.

Nothing quite of that level today but a couple of races interest me at Chelmsford.

The nursery at 4.55 sees the Prescott horse in at a short price, and while a reproduction of his Newcastle form should see him go well, he's had a go at the trip and may not be open to the same progress at it as one or 2 of his rivals. Peace and Plenty shaped like a stayer at Wolverhampton last time and will be better at this trip but does need to improve given how far he was beaten at Wolverhampton last time and Reynardo de Silver looks even more interesting. His best effort came at this track on Monday and while he was making headway as the leaders were slowing down, he looked for all the world as though this longer trip will suit. The time for the race on Monday was very good for the grade and he can give the fav a scare. If you can bet with Hills, they have a concession of money back as a free bet if 2nd to the fav at Chelmsford tonight (up to £25), which looks fair in this race.

The 6.55 has more pace in there than is typical for an AW staying race and am hoping that will suit Free Bounty best. Have to confess in these type of races I tend to concentrate on 3-y-os pretty much to the exception of older horses - studies show that 3-y-os still win far more of these races than they should by chance if it was a level playing field. At first glance he looks a bit exposed, but since his win, it's only been 3-y-os that he's found too good and he proper ran into one over C&D last time. I think given a well-run race, there's still more to come from him, and he's a couple of points too big at around 6/1.
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Tough luck, David; seems you copped for the 2 slowest run races on the card - and by some margin.
Really keen on Pike Corner Cross in the last at Wolves, though he benefited from a strong early pace when blowing home last Friday, and that's far from guaranteed tonight.



Flemenstar
Welcome to the forum, and good luck for today.
 
Many thanks Reet Hard

Ended up winning very easily after traffic problems and an unusual run of being produced off the pace. I thought he'd make all. Not that i'm complaining:cool:
 
Good call, Flemenstar. :thumbsup:
Keystroke (7.15) had a bad trip round the outside in a strongly run race latest, and didn't last home. Today's drop in class should see him deliver, (though he's been backed like a certainty already).
 
Well played Flemenstar with Dazacam.

Had a few bets at Wolves tonight, but nothing that looks particularly great value at current odds. Cosmeapolitan might still be backable at around 11/4. Has shaped really well on his last 2 starts, particularly at Newmarket last time where the ride burst him from 3f to 1f. Providing he acts on AW, I think he should go very well. Not convinced about the fav over 12f, looks like a 10f pedigree to me, and Chelmsford last time was no test of stamina.

The gambled-on Charismatic Man an intriguing contender and been backed like it's well in off 70. No real surprise given he's related to G1 horses and the owner (who has had the likes of Pride) keeps the faith, I'm presuming he also owned it when it was trained in France.
 
Well done Reet Hard & David Johnson - two good winners there.

I wouldn't of touched Cosmeapolitan myself as his long term target is the Triumph Hurdle & i'm sure they don't want to give him too hard a time before his first run over hurdles.
 
Yea well done, Flemenstar.
This thread should provide some resbite from Willie Mullins/Rich Ricci and 'what they're going to run where' talk, in the run up to The Festival!

I wouldn't say I'm great with the A/W, but I'm very keen on one this week, see if she's is declared first, then will do a short preview.
 
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Many thanks Marble

While i'm firstly a NH fan, i must confess i do have a small guilty pleasure of following the AW in the winter months. I look forward to your preview, should she run this week.

One for tomorrow:

Aventinus - 2:20 Newcastle @ 4/1

A decent little Hcap of 4 runners with Aventinus the current outsider of the bunch(Not sure why & feel the compilers have got this completely wrong IMO)

Botti's - Pirate Look, could have massive improvement, but he won a very weak maiden and the current odds of 2/1 are laughable. Johnston's - Morning Suit also won a very weak race & struggled off a mark of 78 at Kempton. His recent second here was in a poor race & his 4lb rise in the Hcap wont of helped his cause. Johnston's other runner - Masham Star, won a decent Hcap at Doncaster on the turf( with Aventinus 3 lengths back in 6th that day) He has obvious claims but my feeling is he'll struggle with Aventinus now 9lb better off tomorrow & back on his favoured surface. Beaten a nose at Kempton. That maiden has thrown up some decent winners the highest rated being on 91 & he was then beaten a neck off tomorrow's mark of 81. He also adds a decent maiden win at Chelmsford to his tally. Hugo Palmer is in a rich vein of form & i expect a bold show
 
Cheers Flemenstar - that nursery was one I went round in circles in.

Little doing for me - managed to get a bit of 3s about Good Run in the 2m race, but that's gone now. Will have to post on this thread a bit earlier in future! Interesting that the yard are bringing him back at this time of year and this is a big class drop. He was last seen in the Imperial Aviator Newbury handicap in the spring. Obviously needs to get back on track and trip could be a question mark - but he looked all stamina at 2 and was impressive in a nursery on his final start last year.
 
Just 2 shorties today:
Ajman Prince (2.50) looks sure to relish the step up in trip, and I'm not sure the Godolphin horse will.
Tagara (3,50) won easier than the margin suggests lto, yet the OH seems to have taken the form literally. Looks sure to improve again, and his trainer has a 40% strike rate at the track.
Double pays 4.6/1 at current prices.
 
Flemenstar said:
Many thanks Marble
While i'm firstly a NH fan, i must confess i do have a small guilty pleasure of following the AW in the winter months. I look forward to your preview, should she run this week.
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Yeah I'm the same, if something is well handicapped, (or I think it is), I don't care if its running on tarmac or up a mountain, I want to be on.

The filly I fancy has been declared - ENJOY LIFE - trained by Kevin Ryan, entered in Lingfields 12:40 on Wednesday. She steps up in grade but is in cracking form. This doesn't look like the most competitive class 3 I've ever seen. The race is hers for the taking off a mark of 77. I'll see what price she is tomorrow night or Wednesday morning. I'm hopeful I'll get 4 or 5's.

Good luck to everyone with your selections today.
 
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Don't think you got much of a run for your money there Reet. Real poor ride from James O'Sullivan. Would certainly be keeping the faith, in particular back over shorter, think he has a cracking turn of foot on synthetics. Cool ride from Rawlinson on the winner whose mount saw it out well.

Looking at the nursery at 4.20, but surprised that Dandy Flame has drifted and is now third fav. I'd have put him in shortest. He looked to struggle over this trip at Lingfield, but he looks sure to get a well-run race, and think there's a good chance the leaders will come back to him more easily here than there. Produced a really good closing sectional at Lingfield and 7/2 makes him a bet.
 
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