AW Winter 2016/17

davidjohnson said:
Fancied Harry Dunlop's in the maiden at 4.45 at Chelmsford tomorrow, went for a lie down, came back and still fancied it so thought I'd share my thoughts. Have been watching this horse closely in 2 runs since he tanked through his debut at Salisbury and on neither has he been seen to best effect. Second time out he travelled well up with the pace at Haydock before fading and last time, upped to 7f he saw his race out better, but had no chance of getting involved with the principals having had too much to do.

I think what this horse wants is holding on to and coming with a late run, and his first 2 starts suggest he has the speed for this trip, particularly in an AW maiden. Sort of expected handicaps o be up next rather than another maiden, but am not convinced by the 2 that head the betting and am hoping to see support for him tomorrow. Final piece of intrigue is the entry in a seller. Is that to just try to throw us off the scent, or am I crediting Harry D with too much intelligence? 6s+ is worth paying to find out.
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Well done mate, thanks
 
Followed you with Coastal Cyclone so thanks very much, David.
 
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Thanks all, scraped home just about. Not really found much to go at at Wolves tomorrow but hopefully something will come up on Saturday's card.
 
Upavon looked worth a bet in the 6.25 at Wolves tonight. The price has gone but I think it'll win.
 
Though he's won 4 on turf this year, Upavon is a better horse on the sand and, in the circumstances, ran a cracker on his recent return. In a red hot 5f race and ridden by an inexperienced pilot, he reared in the stalls losing lengths at the start, but finished to great purpose less than 2l behind today's fav.
With the drop in class, step up in trip and Pat Cosgrave back in the plate (3 from 3 on the horse) he must have a great chance today.
Unfortunately, judged by the betting, the rest of the country knows it too.
 
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Though he's won 4 on turf this year, Upavon is a better horse on the sand and, in the circumstances, ran a cracker on his recent return. In a red hot 5f race and ridden by an inexperienced pilot, he reared in the stalls losing lengths at the start, but finished to great purpose less than 2l behind today's fav.
With the drop in class, step up in trip and Pat Cosgrave back in the plate (3 from 3 on the horse) he must have a great chance today.
Unfortunately, judged by the betting, the rest of the country knows it too.
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haha they certainly do. I fancy Upavon aswell (see my post above yours). Best of luck.
 
Just got a phone call telling me to back Bottleofsmoke in the last at Dundalk. Word for it locally apparently straight from Jockey. Reserve that got in and very well supported since. 11/2 still more than acceptable.

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We wuz robbed, Marb. :)

Wrangler (7.45) travelled much the best until not lasting home latest, and today's drop in trip should be right up his street.
 
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Aye, the icing on what was a very **** week, lets hope we hear from Flemenstar again.
 
Best of luck with Wrangler. I like Erhaaf in that race, Reet. I think it will run well from the bottom weight. I wouldn't put you off a reverse forecast for cover.
 
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Kasbah runs in 2:30 having left Johnny Murtagh's yard and now gone to Amanda Perretts. He finished just under two lengths behind Ardhoomey, a group 2 winner rated 112. This was about six months ago. Kasbah's gone off the boil latest three starts, (they often do before changing yards), but he looks well treated on best form, now dropped 3lb to 92. Apart from the hot favourite in the race, Kasbah looks a value bet to my eyes at 14/1. We shall see if this materialises. Market support would boost the confidence. I certainly wouldn't want to see a big drift, it has to be said.
 
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No Colin. They sometimes lose form. This might be why they're sold, (or might not!).
Its an observation, I've noticed occur a lot over the years.
 
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No worries, Col. Some market support for Kasbah into 12/1, may go shorter too.
 
Dropping Carolinae (12.05) out worked a treat latest, and she absolutely scythed through a similar field over today's c/d. Up 8lbs for that, but her trainer reckons she's listed class, so today's mark of 84 should be well within her compass.
 
Couple of interesting meetings today and hoping the patient approach will pay off as waiting until the 7.15 at Kempton for my bet of the day and it's Sylvester Kirk's Percy Veer. This is a horse who has some solid efforts in some quite good staying races this season, notably his run when not beaten at all far in the Marathon race at Glorious Goodwood. There are a couple of reasons for thinking he'll do a bit better than he has been. This is a big drop in grade for him, down to a 0-85 after running well behind the likes of High Power over C&D last time while he also has the presence of Baker on for the first time, who is as good an AW jockey as there is around.

The Godolphin 3-y-o is the one to beat and while I respect Suroor with this type, he won with a similar sort at Newcastle a couple of weeks, this one didn't look one that was crying out for an extra 4f.
 
A project I need to give up on. There can't be many more one-paced horses in training. Was over for him from a long way out from that position.
 
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