Back now pLAY later

Tanlic

Senior Jockey
Joined
Dec 6, 2011
Messages
11,763
Location
Bangkok Thailand
Most of you will know I have been rabbiting on about backing Sprinter Sacre for the QMCC

Anyone who did could now green up and walk away with a nice profit and no further risk

The same applies to Sprinter Sacre when he was on offer at 6/4 for the Clarence House now he odds on and certain to go even lower.

He is only one example of how to make money for old rope by keeping your eyes and ears open.

In case any novice doesn't know what "green up" means it's a case of bacKing a horse at price A and laying him at price B so whether the horse wins or loses you win.

The calculation is simple.

If you backed SS at 5.00 and laid him back at his current price of 3.70 on Betfair you could walk away with over 35% profit come what may.

The calculation is simple Multiply your stake by the price taken and divide the total by the price you want to lay back at. The difference is your profit if matched.

5 300.00 1500
3.7 405.41 1500
105.41 Profit

There are loads of opportunities out there with Cheltenham coming up and it can be a lot less riskier than trying to back winners

Of course if you back the wrong horse and it drifts or doesn't run then you will lose but the same applies to backing one ante post only unless you use a trading account there's no way of saving your bacon or at least some of it should you get wind of anything negative.


Possible profit makers

Grassy and I have been winding each other up since the first day Binocular stepped on a racecourse....I the Binocular man He being the Fly's number 1 fan.

Never heated and always in fun it sometimes get the brain fluids going and this week was no different.

I suggested WM may not run Hurricane Fly and Grassy tells me to shut the fook up and stop talking shyte.........pretty fair comment and I wouldn't expect less.

But out of that came this thread.

Hurricane Fly 14/1.......what an opportunity!!! You may have to get a high street bookie to lay you if you want a lump on but as someone rightly pointed out what price is he going to be on the day and there's no law against backing with the bookie and laying on the machine

6/1 or less is very possible if he does turn up..............Of course he frekkin will says Grassy and most likely he's correct. He could be the best back to lay of the meeting


Holywell 14/1 No way on this earth will he go off at that price. All he needs to do is run a good trial and the bookies will take no chances with him on the day.
He may not be a JP MCManus owned but that won't stop those in the know to get stuck in on the day if the horse is right....The very fact AP will be on board more or less guarantedd he'll go off at single figures.

Whisper 12/1 for the RSA won't be that price after today. Should hack up and join Don Poli at around 7/1
If he doesn't then you can bet Kings Palace 6/1 will go off at less than half his current odds. 2 off the last 3 favs of the RSA have gone off at 5/2 and 6/5 one trained by PIpe.

I have one more but need to do a little research before backing him as he's currently massive price and could be for good reason

Hopefully someone can add a few horses they feel look certain to turn up and be considerably shorter on the day and we can all make a few quid.
Great thing is you don't even need to fancy the horse just know others are sure to want to back them
 
Might be worth looking at Skybet prices for the championship races as they are NRNB. I don't think that Hurricane Fly will turn up in March but he's still 12/1 with Skybet so you're covered for only a small cut in price.
More Of That is 7/2 with Skybet for the World Hurdle and will surely be much shorter if he lines up. 4/1 in a few places if you don't want the NRNB insurance.
 
Last edited:
Its never a good idea to second guess the destination of novice hurdlers but you wont see 25/1 (Ladbrokes) on Jollyallan on the day of the supreme if he turns up there.
 
It's too sterile an approach for my own personal tastes, Tanlic.

If I get to the tape holding a big-price from an early ante-post voucher, I generally tend to let it roll (almost irregardless of the price on the day), and then complement this with a proper bet based a strict view of the form of the confirmed field.

I'd caveat that slightly to say that I'm probably more prone to adopt your approach, if the P&L argument is strong enough (i.e. the horse in question is a blatant no-hoper)
 
It's an approach that doesn't appeal to me, tbh, ........... not unless you are on at NRNB. Too many unpredictables can happen in a ten-week timeframe. One non-runner will blow all your other possible profits away and leave you with negative exposure.
Even with NRNB there's always the hazard that a selection might have drifted badly come the day due to unforeseen developments or circumstances.
Nah, not for me, afraid. :rolleyes:
 
Its like investment banking. Small profit, small profit, small profit, small profit. . . Do your hoop. . .

If you want to start a thread about ways to make money than speak to me.
 
It's not like investment banking. The results are too absolute, you have more protection from a total loss in an investment market.
 
It's not like investment banking. The results are too absolute, you have more protection from a total loss in an investment market.

My point being you'll record a multitude of small wins but when the downturn does come you will do your brains.
 
Last edited:
There is no soft money to be made backing Hurricane Fly at 14/1 or 12/1 with a run.You absolutely have to love the horse and respect his achievements but what has happened so far is the phony war.
I will tell you exactly how it will play out with HF -if he wins the Irish Champion and it is an if that will be the time to take a profit-if gets beaten you can forget about it.On the day at Cheltenham there will be no sentiment in the market and he will be available at a double figure price.The factors against an easy profit are defeat at Leopardstown,injury and an incredibly strong market on the day.The factors for are basically injury to any of his significant opponents.You will also need to be able to stump up a significant sum on the day as the bet fair ante post and day of race markets are entirely separate.
If you want to make money out of the fly back him for the Irish Champion - it just won't happen at Cheltenham.
 
there will be no sentiment in the market

An important point. Bookmakers may fall over themselves shortening up horses but these prices are not available for us to lay. Every horse has its price on the machine.
 
Go back to 2009 and Brave Inca who was a real favourite with the Irish Racing public won the Irish Champion Hurdle.Come Champion Hurdle day his sp was 33/1.
 
That's not exactly an apples-for-apples comparison imo, Luke.....though I take the overall point about 'market sentiment'. Even if the Irish get the meeting off to a flyer (pardon the pun) the strong likelihood is that the patriotic money would find its way towards Faugheen, rather than the Fly. At current odds, any contraction is likely to be marginal, in the event that HF wins the Irish Champion.
 
Its hard to give an exact comparison - when See you Then and Kribensis attempted comebacks they started at massive prices.
 
Too Much capital? Hardly if you are backing at big odds.

I just had 11.99p matched at 70.83p profit 837.31 on The Giant Bolster who went off at 14/1 in last years race.

David Bridgewater has deliberately not run the horse over Xmas and although he will go for the Argento again he has said he will be happy with a place this time round and the aim is to have him spot on for Cheltenham

Love to see what price he goes off at if it were to turn up heavy. That aside considering he was under pressure right from the start last season if he goes there a bit fresher and travels better his odds will drop through the floor in running.

Lot of ifs or buts but with his Gold Cup record no bookie will be taking any chances on him on the day.

Even if I lay him off at 20 it's about 200% profit

Take my stake out at 20 and I have a possible win of 609.50p quid to nothing.

Of course he might not get there but the horse I back on the day could just as easily fall at the first or run a stinker.
 
That's not exactly an apples-for-apples comparison imo, Luke.....though I take the overall point about 'market sentiment'. Even if the Irish get the meeting off to a flyer (pardon the pun) the strong likelihood is that the patriotic money would find its way towards Faugheen, rather than the Fly. At current odds, any contraction is likely to be marginal, in the event that HF wins the Irish Champion.

Marginal? We will be lucky if 10 turn up the way things are going and the betting will only concern 4 taking it they will all turn up.
Faugheen 11/8
The New One 11/4
Jezki 9/2
Hurricane Fly 13/2

I reckon the bookies will make sure Hurricane Fly is not an attractive ew bet and try and point the punters towards the no hopers

The only reason he's 14/1 with a couple is they think there's a chance he may not run....lets not go there again.
 
Last edited:
The reason HF is 14/1 in places isn't because certain bookmakers think he won't run.......it's because they think he can't win. Of the four principals, the 11yo Hurricane Fly is the most obvious one to take on - there is absolutely no chance he will start as short as 13/2, if Faugheen, Jezki and TNO all make it to the race.
 
Marginal? We will be lucky if 10 turn up the way things are going and the betting will only concern 4 taking it they will all turn up.
Faugheen 11/8
The New One 11/4
Jezki 9/2
Hurricane Fly 13/2


I reckon the bookies will make sure Hurricane Fly is not an attractive ew bet and try and point the punters towards the no hopers

The only reason he's 14/1 with a couple is they think there's a chance he may not run....lets not go there again.

Bookmakers do not protect their e/w interests in Grade A races which is why the champion hurdle is such a good e/w betting heat the last two years.
 
HF has run at the last 4 festivals and missed the previous 2 through injury- this is his 7th campaign aimed towards the festival-how many horses that were fancied for the 2009 festival are still around-Sizing Europe would be one but there wouldn't be many more.I don't work in the industry but there is no way each way bets will be restricted on this one.
Istabraq,Moscow Flyer,Kauto Star and Big Bucks were all festival legends who came back one last time and were well beaten.
 
HF has run at the last 4 festivals and missed the previous 2 through injury- this is his 7th campaign aimed towards the festival-how many horses that would have hacked-up at the 2009 festival are still around-Sizing Europe would be one but there wouldn't be many more.I don't work in the industry but there is no way each way bets will be restricted on this one.
Istabraq,Moscow Flyer,Kauto Star and Big Bucks were all festival legends who came back one last time and were well beaten.

Fixed that for you, Luke.
 
Last year Our Conor went off at 5/1 The New One went off at 3/1 Hurricane Fly at 11/4 My Tent or Yours 3/1

I fail to see how anyone can say that was a good race for betting ew

Previous Year Hurricane Fly went off at 13/8 and 4th in the betting was 13/2

One did sneak into the frame at a backable EW price to give a reasonable price John Quinns was about 16/1

200 ew to win 100 pounds does not appeal to me as a good ew bet to beat a hot pot It's 1/4.....If I think it will win I'll back it for a win if I think it can't but will go close I'll stick my 400 quid on at 1.8 to 2 for a place only.....nor does it to the majority of punters and bookies at Cheltenham do tighten up prices whenever they can to steer punters away from betting horses with a chance EW
 
Last edited:
Back
Top