Back now pLAY later

Any other fookr want to wind me up get in line :lol:


I would appreciate it if someone would put Hurricane Fly up at 20 for the CH on Betfair so I can have a few quid on thank you
 
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LUKE said:
Yes there is - if he gets beaten in the Irish Champion Hurdle.
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Possibly but it's called gambling if we were to think of all possibilities we'd never have a bet.

The chances of it happening are there for all to see and reflected in the odds.

Hurricane Fly is better suited by the inner course than Jezki

He's never been beaten on the course

He trounced Jezki in the race last year

He is much more likely to have the ground suit him

on the downside Jezki showed improved form to run him close last time.

Odds are stacked in Hurricane Fly's favour so it's pretty big if.

So the chances he will start at double figures must be Slim (Excuse the pun)
 
An alternative view might be that Jezki has only a half-length to find, based on the Ryanair form, and Hf is by no means a cert to prevail again at Leopardstown. I think he probably will, but I don't expect it to be a waltz, and of the pair, I reckon only Jezki's price has the potential to shorten significantly (in percentage terms).

Tanlic, the snide each-way bets being proposed are essentially agnostic as to who has the best form chance - it is strictly a numbers game. With you already having a strong position around Faugheen, it's no real surprise that you don't see the merit in the approach being proposed...........because it's counter-intuitive to 'having an opinion'. The focus is all on the Place part of the bet, with the Win part almost being inconsequential - which is why it appears throwaway (and therefore bizarre) to anyone who fancies Faugheen strongly.
 
Tanlic, I'll say it again, this has nothing to do with opinion on who wins the champion hurdle.

The makeup of some races means the place part of each way bet is at better odds than the chance of placing. Look at a betfair place market and it'll be 301%, i.e. overround. The same calculation using the place part of each way bets might give 260%, i.e.overbroke.

This means those bets are value and therefore a source of long term profit. What you are saying is that you don't want to take 6/4 on a toss of a coin being a head because you really believe it will be a tail.


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LUKE said:
if and absolutely.
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The point is very simple. If there is a length in it either way in the Irish which is a high possibility. Even that small reverse will see the Fly go off shorter.
 
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Frankel said:
The point is very simple. If there is a length in it either way in the Irish which is a high possibility. Even that small reverse will see the Fly go off shorter.
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Defeat for HF in the Irish Champion would absolutely mean his price for Cheltenham would drift.
 
wilsonl said:
e/w betting ante post at those sort of prices is plainly ridiculous.

Enjoy boys, your win bet - if the Faugheen hype is accurate - is lost, so you're relying on either horse having everything go right between now and then to win pennies.

I prefer Tanlic's approach. He can have a proper bet nearer the day knowing that an 'upset' with the fly winning will pay for itself.

and investment banking analogies have no place in horse racing discussions.

For better and worse, the former has been my life for approaching 30 years - the latter similarly - one is partly fuelled with sentiment and the other the complete and utter opposite.

There is no way on this planet that Hurricane Fly goes off double figures in the CH.
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I don't think he'll even run in at Cheltenham.
 
LUKE said:
Defeat for HF in the Irish Champion would absolutely mean his price for Cheltenham would drift.
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A defeat even if minimal may see a slight drift initially. But in terms of come race time, he'll be no bigger than he is now. If wanting a bigger price then you are relying on Jezki turning the Fly over, which is debatable.
 
Tanlic said:
That's a belly rumble Luke.....please don't make statements like that and not back it up with examples of what you mean....it's nothing more than an empty jibe without elaborating on what you mean by misconceptions and Cherry picked.
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Did you not have a lump on Sprinter Sacre for the Tingle Creek -were you ever in a position to lay that off for a guaranteed profit.You tell us about the guaranteed profit to be made backing Sprinter for Ascot but don't say anything about Sandown surely that's cherrypicking.
Whipper for the RSA -what is his lay price at the moment.
 
I am not friggin Jesus mate I do get things wrong but so what?

If I wanted to I could walk away right now with a very nice profit in both the Clarence and The QMCC but there's more chance of you actually answering the questions put to you than me laying Sprinter Sacre.
 
BennyB said:
Tanlic, I'll say it again, this has nothing to do with opinion on who wins the champion hurdle.

The makeup of some races means the place part of each way bet is at better odds than the chance of placing. Look at a betfair place market and it'll be 301%, i.e. overround. The same calculation using the place part of each way bets might give 260%, i.e.overbroke.

This means those bets are value and therefore a source of long term profit. What you are saying is that you don't want to take 6/4 on a toss of a coin being a head because you really believe it will be a tail.


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Those 301% etc figures are of no interest to me. All I care about is the price of The New One for a place on the day because I think he's the most likely to be going on at the finish.......I have already backed Faugheen at decent odds and I will let him run and I backed Hurricane Fly at 15.5 and 15 with a view to laying him back either after the ICH or on the day at Cheltenham.

Other than that I have no interest in backing Jezki because I can't see him winning and he could burn himself out trying to keep tabs on Faugheen and apart from Arctic Fire the rest couldn't win if they started half an hour earlier.

I can see absolutely no value in treating hard earned cash like ****, throwing it at a wet wall and hoping some sticks.:p
 
Tanlic said:
I am not friggin Jesus mate I do get things wrong but so what?

If I wanted to I could walk away right now with a very nice profit in both the Clarence and The QMCC but there's more chance of you actually answering the questions put to you than me laying Sprinter Sacre.
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You can't because the liquidity isn't there at the moment for the size of the bets you are talking about.
 
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Tanlic.

Here are some hard facts for you. If you want to argue with the maths below than you may well win a noble prize one day.

The column in bold shows the place bets win expectation minus the win bets win expectation. Its a positive expectation for every runner in the field. As the old saying goes all e/w is bad but some is worse than others.

Champion Hurdle 2013 - horses in order of finishing position

(Probability of Wining) x (Amount Won per Bet) – (Probability of Losing) x (Amount Lost per Bet)

SP Unit BSP Prob Win Prob losing Expected Win (Place bets Expected Win - Win Bets Expected Win)
9 1 11 0.09090909091 0.9090909091 9 -0.09090909091 0.215476565
3 1 4.24 0.2358490566 0.7641509434 3 -0.05660377358 0.039749841
3.33 1 5 0.2 0.8 3.33 -0.134 0.1871609195
2.75 1 3.95 0.253164557 0.746835443 2.75 -0.05063291139 0.01491862568
100 1 147.91 0.006760868095 0.9932391319 100 -0.3171523224 0.6171523224
28 1 36.99 0.0270343336 0.9729656664 28 -0.2160043255 0.583525693
20 1 22.06 0.04533091568 0.9546690843 20 -0.04805077063 0.2018969245
66 1 85.86 0.01164686699 0.988353133 66 -0.2196599115 0.6196599115
5 1 7.19 0.1390820584 0.8609179416 5 -0.1655076495 0.1699719352
-1.298520755 (expected win from win bets)

Prob Win Prob losing
2.25 1 2.89 0.3460207612 0.6539792388 2.25 0.124567474[/B]
0.75 1 1.78 0.5617977528 0.4382022472 0.75 -0.01685393258
0.8325 1 1.74 0.5747126437 0.4252873563 0.8325 0.05316091954
0.6875 1 1.75 0.5714285714 0.4285714286 0.6875 -0.03571428571
25 1 20 0.05 0.95 25 0.3
7 1 5.85 0.1709401709 0.8290598291 7 0.3675213675
5 1 5.2 0.1923076923 0.8076923077 5 0.1538461538
16.5 1 12.5 0.08 0.92 16.5 0.4
1.25 1 2.24 0.4464285714 0.5535714286 1.25 0.004464285714
1.350991982 (expected win from place bets)
 
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Those 301% etc figures are of no interest to me. All I care about is the price of The New One for a place on the day because I think he's the most likely to be going on at the finish.

This is it. I have no real interest in place or ew bets and dont bet amounts making it worth the time and effort but this is key to it surely? Some horses re going to be all or nothing (and inconsistent jumper say) and some you can be fairly sure will run their race. Its the latter you look for place bets on isnt it? It comes down to the horse itself every time
 
2015 Champion Hurdle

Best price place book currently with bookmakers

Faugheen 76.19%
The New One 57.14%
Jezki 40%
Hurricane Fly 22.22%
Arctic Fire 10.81%
Irving 7.47%
Vaniteux 7.47%
Purple Bay 7.47%

228.77%

Now there is always the possibility that I am missing a runner(s) but none of them is likely to be above 10% to place. So right now if you think a horse will run you are long odds on to beat the Betfair place SP and place a bet with positive expectation. You also position yourself for the small chance that Faugheen or one the big three come out and you also have a win bet with positive expectation. The best example of this was the thread I started last year about betting e/w on any likely runner in the Queen Mother. The rare event happened with Sprinter Sacre coming out and the e/w sewer rats were lying awake at night clutching their 20/1 Sire De Gruggy vouchers.

I don't argue that this is the only way to bet and I completely see the 'just back the winner' based on opinion brigade but don't question and refuse to see the maths of bad e/w betting.
 
Apart from Sign Of a Victory who simply couldn't handle the tacky ground the other day and could well bounce back and win the Betfair Hurdle you haven't missed anything.

At least not anything that has a chance on a par of that of the chance McCririck has of winning the London marathon

I hear what you are saying, who would have thought what happened to SS was just around the corner.

All it takes is for a leading contender to stand on a stone and bruise a foot on the eve of the race and the whole picture changes in a flash.

The Fly could well be your Sire De Grugy were it to happen but that in itself is a big gamble to be taking.

I just can't bring myself to be placing a bet on a race in the hope that some horse might drop out.

It's just me. As I said before I don't believe in backing a horse just because I think he should be shorter (value) if I don't think he will win or be placed and I certainly don't back horses in the hope something breaks down or is injured on the run up to a race.

I know the latter is not what you are saying no one wishes a racehorse ill and it does happen but it's still not for me.

I would hate to think Sire De Grugy falls over a cliff before the QMCC and lands on top of Dodging Bullets who just happens to be passing by at the time.........Honestly:lol:
 
Yeah but the point is if nothing happens out of the ordinary your e/w bets still has positive expectation. If you place enough of these bets you'll plaster the wall with **** in no time.
 
LUKE said:
You can't because the liquidity isn't there at the moment for the size of the bets you are talking about.
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True but there are more people wanting to back the horse than lay it

At 3.55 the current price I could walk away with over a grand but what do you think would happen if I put up a lay at 4? which fwiw would about half my profit

I could go bigger than that and still come out in front. There's no such thing as cant
 
LIfe's full of positive expectations Slim but as we know to our cost when reality sets in and there off the world as we know imagined it suddenly changes....and a certainty becomes a panic stricken punter hoping ta fook it doesn't fall.:lol:

I was sort of thinking of backing Jezki EW as he is probably the fairest price on the books 40% you say but wonder what will happen if he gets beaten by the Fly again?

Any thoughts on that?
 
The ICH will be more or less neutral in terms of impact on the Champion Hurdle market, unless Jezki beats Hurricane Fly convincingly.....in which case HF would lengthen and Jezki would shorten. If Hurricane Fly prevails, people will take the view that it's fair game, expected too, given HF's propensity for the track, and Jezki is only really being prepared for one race in March. This is a scenario that would be unsurprising, and it's impact on the CH market is therefore likely to be negligible, imo.

The only e/w bet that makes sense at this stage - discounting speculative tilts on outers - is Jezki, as he is the only (expected) runner whose price is likely to shorten to any significant degree, between now and the Champion Hurdle itself.
 
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Tanlic said:
LIfe's full of positive expectations Slim but as we know to our cost when reality sets in and there off the world as we know imagined it suddenly changes....and a certainty becomes a panic stricken punter hoping ta fook it doesn't fall.:lol:
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I don't look to back certainties because you pay a premium to back those. I look to buy bets cheaply that have a big upside. I'm working on a few things at the moment and having as many of these e/w bets as I can. There are loads of way to skin a cat and I'm well aware my style does not suit others etc

Jezki's price can't go bigger than 6/1 or the market will quickly correct it unless something goes physically wrong and/or he runs completely flat. SJ went 7/1 after his last run and got knocked over. I think he gets shorter if HF beats him a head in the ICH. 6/1 e/w is just outstanding value.
 
Grasshopper said:
The ICH will be more or less neutral in terms of impact on the Champion Hurdle market, unless Jezki beats Hurricane Fly convincingly.....in which case HF would lengthen and Jezki would shorten. If Hurricane Fly prevails, people will take the view that it's fair game, expected too, given HF's propensity for the track, and Jezki is only really being prepared for one race in March. This is a scenario that would be unsurprising, and it's impact on the CH market is therefore likely to be negligible, imo.

The only e/w bet that makes sense at this stage - discounting speculative tilts on outers - is Jezki, as he is the only (expected) runner whose price is likely to shorten to any significant degree, between now and the Champion Hurdle itself.
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It seems like we all agree on something, that Jeski is the best ew bet, which is a refreshing change.

BUT!! we gotta have a but...What would happen if Hurricane Fly beats Jezki again and for arguments sake gets a 12/1 quote which no one really bothers about and he goes on to beat Jezki again in the Champion Hurdle and to make it worse with Ruby on board

We will have seen him show hard proof 3 times he has the beating of Jezki and totally ignored it and be sick as parrots because either we never backed him or never had enough on.

Wish I had a tenner for every time something like that happens in a race............don't need to look back far.......I backed a second season hurdler to beat a Champion Hurdle winner just the other day who I thought "no problem" "Rock on Ruby huh he'll murder him for speed"..............ROR laughed at my horse and I cried LOL

If Faugheen is the next istabraq then it's a forgone conclusion but if not then why not Hurricane Fly? we could be underestimating his chance big time....................

I only said all that so you can't sleep tonight :lol:
 
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