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2014 Champion Hurdle place return at sp versus betfair place sp.
Jezki 3.5 v 2.89
MTOY 1.8 v 1.78
TNO 1.84 v 1.74
HF 1.68 v 1.75
Captain CB 26 v 20
Ptit Zig 8 v 5.2
Grumetti 17.5 v 12.5
Our Connor 2.25 v 2.24

A nine horse race with two complete duds - I would have said this was a very attractive race for an ew bet.
 
Tanlic said:
Last year Our Conor went off at 5/1 The New One went off at 3/1 Hurricane Fly at 11/4 My Tent or Yours 3/1

I fail to see how anyone can say that was a good race for betting ew
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I refuse to read the rest of your essay because you are talking through your pipe.

The SP place overround on last years Champion Hurdle was 284.89%. That is an overbroke book and therefore bad e/w. Now remember that in the morning firms were offering far more competitive prices so you probably could have backed every selection at around 250%. If you can find a worse e/w race than that then good luck to you.
 
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LUKE said:
2014 Champion Hurdle place return at sp versus betfair place sp.
Jezki 3.5 v 2.89
MTOY 1.8 v 1.78
TNO 1.84 v 1.74
HF 1.68 v 1.75
Captain CB 26 v 20

Ptit Zig 8 v 5.2
Grumetti 17.5 v 12.5
Our Connor 2.25 v 2.24

A nine horse race with two complete duds - I would have said this was a very attractive race for an ew bet.
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Jezki and TNO were a cracking e/w bet. The more speculative dreamers were taking Ptit Zig at the early 66/1.
 
It's all well and fine after the fact saying Jezki was a cracking ew bet but basically you are both talking through your pipes.

Since when did bookmakers give you back your win stake?

200 EW on TNO = 400 stakes and you lose 50 quid

400 Staked on TNO place only on Betfair and you win 296 quid less say 4%
 
All your sum proves is that the only horses worth betting ew were Jezki and those over 9/1 If you were lucky enough to chose Jezki then fair enough but back any other horse EW and you would have lost.

Back any of the first 3 place only and you would have won.

I would rather depend on Hurricane Fly getting a place than some rag and the bookies on the day know that so they will do everything they can to make sure he's short enough to put punters off and have their 10 ew on some mule that will probably be tailed off.

I have no idea what the morning prices were but by bringing them into it you are only strengthening my case if you say they offer better prices.
 
Jezki at 6/1 and The New One e/w are cracking e/w bets this year too. I expect Jezki to be odds on to place in March whereas he is currently 6/4 to place by taking 6/4 e/w.

I'm afraid your just wrong about this Tanlic. It was a bad e/w race and I have never been asked so many e/w bets in my job as that race last year. Punters were falling over themselves to back everything e/w.
 
Tanlic - it has nothing to do with your win stake, as that is wagered at a price which reflects the true chance, near enough. Couple that with a place bet at much better odds than the true chance and you will profit long term. Plus you have the chance to put this kind of bet in each way multiples, which serve to compound the value you are getting on the place part.

In summary, Slim is right and you are wrong.


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All of my AP bets on the CH so far have been E/W doubles mainly with leading run scorer for the Cricket WC
1/4 for the first 5 is excellent value doubled with Jezki and TNO who granted a clear round should really be in the top 3.
 
fonz said:
All of my AP bets on the CH so far have been E/W doubles mainly with leading run scorer for the Cricket WC
1/4 for the first 5 is excellent value doubled with Jezki and TNO who granted a clear round should really be in the top 3.
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Think I saw on another thread you'd backed David Warner - who else? I must say five places makes that market look very attractive.

Warner is a good shout. Aus should go deep into the tournament, DW opens so will get a chance in every game, and scores quickly when he's in. I've not seen prices but Amla must be worth a look too.


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Warner 10/1
kohli 20/1
And a couple of smaller bets on Clarke at 25/1 and Steven Smith at 33/1
Clarke would have been a stonking bet but for his injuries, I presume he will be back for the tournament but with his hamstring and bad back probably won't play against the minnows.There isn't much need to look to far outside the box with the bigger priced ones as the cream always rises to the top.
 
Geesus now we are bringing multiples into this. Are we discussing this years Champion Hurdle as an ew betting medium here or are we discussing every type of ew bet on the planet.

I got you Benny saying your win stake has nothing to do with it......what complete shyte mate......if you 200 ew on a 6/1 shot 1/4 odds that's placed you just backed a 1/4 winner it is that simple.

And Luke puts up a pile of figures which are totally inaccurate because he has not taken the win stake into consideration.

What am I missing here.

Right now taking it Arctic Fire doesn't turn up the only horse if we are to believe the form book that has a chance of placing outside of the front 3 is Hurricane Fly.

If the top 4 turn up the bookies will make Hurricane Fly as unattractive and ew bet as they can possibly get away with and force ew punters looking to make a profit to bet a rag.

If they don't then EW punters will lump on him as he is the only horse that could possible get between the front 3 if they run to form and then they will be forced to cut him anyway.

Furthermore I think he may well be placed but has little or no chance of winning therefor if I was backing him I would not throw away a win stake........but add it to my place stake and would rather take 3/1 or whatever on the place only market.

You could say he is the value bet but as I truly believe the horse can't win the race the I wouldn't dream of backing him to do so.

That is what we are discussing here not multiples and we certainly should not be ignoring the fact that a win stake is part of an ew bet which some of you seem willing to ignore.

If I am wrong on anything I am saying then so be it but that is the way I see it
 
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You're not thinking about this logically. If you only bet e/w in races with the same shape as last year and this years champion hurdle you would have positive value bets. It's basic probability.
 
You're missing the point Tanlic. You need to think of this in terms of value and long-term profit. It's maths and has nothing to do with whether a particular horse wins a particular race.

If you're backing 6/1 shots each way which have a one in seven chance of winning you don't need to worry about the win part. One in seven of them will win and you'll get your money back. If the same horses you are backing at 6/4 to place actually have a 50% chance of placing rather than the 40% implied by the odds, you will win money on the place part over the long term, as you're getting 6/4 on an even money shot.

There's a reason that bookies close your account for having too many of these bets.


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e/w betting ante post at those sort of prices is plainly ridiculous.

Enjoy boys, your win bet - if the Faugheen hype is accurate - is lost, so you're relying on either horse having everything go right between now and then to win pennies.

I prefer Tanlic's approach. He can have a proper bet nearer the day knowing that an 'upset' with the fly winning will pay for itself.

and investment banking analogies have no place in horse racing discussions.

For better and worse, the former has been my life for approaching 30 years - the latter similarly - one is partly fuelled with sentiment and the other the complete and utter opposite.

There is no way on this planet that Hurricane Fly goes off double figures in the CH.
 
I pray to God everyday that punters keep thinking like Tanlic and Wilsonl so I can keep chopping off the bad e/w value.
 
wilsonl said:
e/w betting ante post at those sort of prices is plainly ridiculous.

Enjoy boys, your win bet - if the Faugheen hype is accurate - is lost, so you're relying on either horse having everything go right between now and then to win pennies.

I prefer Tanlic's approach. He can have a proper bet nearer the day knowing that an 'upset' with the fly winning will pay for itself.

and investment banking analogies have no place in horse racing discussions.

For better and worse, the former has been my life for approaching 30 years - the latter similarly - one is partly fuelled with sentiment and the other the complete and utter opposite.

There is no way on this planet that Hurricane Fly goes off double figures in the CH.
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Yes there is - if he gets beaten in the Irish Champion Hurdle.
 
Pretty simple really. If the Fly runs a similar race in the Irish. Absolutely no way does he go bigger than his current odds.
 
SlimChance said:
You're not thinking about this logically. If you only bet e/w in races with the same shape as last year and this years champion hurdle you would have positive value bets. It's basic probability.
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I hate the word value although even I find myself using it sometime...........You have lost me completely can you give me an idea of what you are talking about by pointing out the actual value bets.


My own take on which are value is you can Back Faugheen to win which I believe he will do.

I can see no value in backing the New One ew at all but I think he's worth backing for a place only.

Jezki fans should back Jezki before the Irish Champion Hurdle and EW would probably be the way to go as he'll be no better than 7/2 if he beats the Fly.

As I have said previously I can't see the Fly winning and much depends on what happens in the Irish Champion Hurdle if Jezki turns up to take him on again.

If he beats him easier than last time there's no way you will get a sniff at 14/1 again so a back to lay looks the best option as he would probably be gettable around 9

You could just back him too win the Irish and make slightly less profit if that was the case but if you did and he lost then you lose all.

If he loses narrowly to Jezki I doubt if he will go much higher than the current 14/1 and you can get out with as small loss so I would stick to the back to lay with him.

No offence Slim but without examples on this years race you have completely lost me.
 
LUKE said:
The opening post is full of misconceptions, cherry picked examples and dodgy maths.
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That's a belly rumble Luke.....please don't make statements like that and not back it up with examples of what you mean....it's nothing more than an empty jibe without elaborating on what you mean by misconceptions and Cherry picked.
 
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