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Backing Venetia Williams' Chasers In November with Andrew Mount

Thanks Simon

It’s interesting that it’s noted Venetia returned a losing November in 2022 following a dry October that year but the advice remains to back her runners in November this year following a similarly dry October (so far). Maybe I’ve misunderstood the advice

The profit in December 2022 after the poor November is worth noting though
 
Her stats since 2000, the difference between her Hurdlers and Chasers in Nov is interesting.

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viking said:
Thanks Simon

It’s interesting that it’s noted Venetia returned a losing November in 2022 following a dry October that year but the advice remains to back her runners in November this year following a similarly dry October (so far). Maybe I’ve misunderstood the advice

The profit in December 2022 after the poor November is worth noting though
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This is the driest run of weather in a decade. I wouldn’t touch her horses in November. Stats without nuance will cost you a lot of money.
 
Ah, excellent, yet another chance for some aftertiming.

I had a related contingency Venetia Williams treble up one Saturday a season or two back - Fontaine Collonges was one of them - and she's definitely a trainer who often has a purple patch once the ground turns properly Soft (which is often in November, but not always).

She buys horses with staying mudlark pedigrees, gets them handicapped under unsuitable conditions and then strikes.

It's already fairly common knowledge, but it's still irritating reading Andrew and Simon telling an even wider audience about it!

The more who know, the sooner the value is killed.

But everyone's got to make a living somehow and, broadly speaking, they're not wrong.
 
Between her and Doumen they were the first real trainers I took note of. It wouldn't have been my first season of betting but it was probably the first season where I started to understand racing and the difference between races I.e handicaps and graded races and it was the season of Teeton mill and that little rat of a horse that she'd bought for about 500 quid as a companion horse originally Lady Rebecca. They were probably the first two horses i fell in love with.

Gives me a chance for some aftertiming but as I only really ever aftertime losers its also fitting. I went to have a big bet on Lady Rebecca antepost for the Stayers hurdle with a private bookmaker as bookmakers went he was a great guy. As I handed over the slip he said are you sure? When i asked why he told me he'd had word that a horse called Le Coudray could pick the lot up and carry them. I said nah im sure so he took the bet but told me to piss off down the high street and back Le coudray aswell who was 10/1 at the time so I did. His info was defintely spot on as Le coudray was backed off the boards I remember standing in the bookies on the day of the race thinking I literally couldnt lose and then came Anzum at 50/1 to spoil the party.

One of my first valuable lessons in gambling no matter how good it looks ....you can always lose.

Teeton mill then went on to pull up in the Gold cup.

Bollocks done. Good times.
 
In what context ? I watched ground at Goodwood turn from gd-firm to a quagmire in the space of 10 minutes this summer. We're still 2 weeks out from the beggining of November. Ive heard all the national hunt trainers praying for rain ill guarentee at some point in November they'll be pulling horses out because the grounds too soft.

Also carved deep into my heart is Black Friday at Cheltenham. I stood to win a shitload on the last day of Cheltenham the ground was good on the Thursday by the time a mud splattered Our conor passed the line the Friday I realised that my balls had just fell off and rolled down the drain.

So pray tell.
 
I'm keeping a watch brief on one of her handicappers, The Famous Five, who Venetia could get more improvement out of this season I reckon. The horse has been unfluent and that sort of thing but still running very well. There could be much more to come if Venetia gets this one racing properly.
 
There’s a reason Willie Mullins doesn’t run his horses at Down Royal. No trainer mentions the ground more than Willie. This dry spell has real implications — good horses simply won’t run until there’s a clear change in the weather and proper winter ground.
 
Slim said:
I honestly don't understand how it's favourite.
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Maybe because there are penguins at the South Pole who've been told Venetia Williams in November is meant to be a system.

1 Everyone in the solar system knows about it.

2 She actually hits form when her horses have a) been able to work on their ground and b) get that ground on a racecourse.

Djelo is obviously a decent chaser, but I'm happy to let him win without my money on him today - I've not had a bet in the race and don't plan to.

And if I was given a free bet I'd probably stick it on Hewick.

Or arb it.

Or sell it.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Maybe because there are penguins at the South Pole who've been told Venetia Williams in November is meant to be a system.

1 Everyone in the solar system knows about it.

2 She actually hits form when her horses have a) been able to work on their ground and b) get that ground on a racecourse.

Djelo is obviously a decent chaser, but I'm happy to let him win without my money on him today - I've not had a bet in the race and don't plan to.

And if I was given a free bet I'd probably stick it on Hewick.

Or arb it.

Or sell it.
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Would be interesting to review her chase wins in Nov re point 2
 
I don't fancy Djelo on ratings in the Charlie Hall but I'm not betting in that race anyway.
However it's plus re pointer/trial races is that it won Newbury Denman Chase Stakes 2m 7f 86y Grade2 in Feb, and since 2000, 15 runners have gone from that to the following Charlie Hall and 3 (20%) have won and 9 (60%) have won or placed. Four prev winners of the Newbury Denman Chase have gone to the following Charlie Hall and 1 (25%) won.
 
Desperate Dan said:
Venetia`s first November chaser out today....Djelo in the Charlie Hall. Fill ya boots?
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Like I said, regardless of weather, ground, or anything, Venetia Williams from 1st November is a license to print money - they'll all be odds on now for at least a fortnight and maybe until the Advent.
 
I think Simon Nott, a chap I don't know well, but who has always been an affable absolute gentleman on the rare occasions I've encountered him, deserves credit for this particular interview, as it's created an ongoing debate and, for some, an instant winner at 15/2 ante-post.

Venetia Williams entries going forwards: Trainer Miss Venetia Williams | irishracing.com
 
Ian_Davies said:
I think Simon Nott, a chap I don't know well, but who has always been an affable absolute gentleman on the rare occasions I've encountered him, deserves credit for this particular interview, as it's created an ongoing debate and, for some, an instant winner at 15/2 ante-post.

Venetia Williams entries going forwards: Trainer Miss Venetia Williams | irishracing.com
Click to expand...

Simon is a nice person but he hasn't yet worked out that AK is a c***.
 

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