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Bad EW multiples

del boy

del boy

Senior Jockey
Joined
Nov 16, 2005
Messages
3,791
Location
Ireland
I was just reading an article online and it mentioned 14/1 second fav for the Arkle, which got me thinking about a trying to get together a few bad ew bets done, especially with the non runner no bet concessions and BOG.

I wouldn't be adverse to including sports bets in this too, so please feel free to add in anything you think is worth a second look. Il be doing some research and posting more later.

The Arkle and Queen Mother seem obvious races, maybe even the Foxhunters given how short on the fringe is gone.
 
Looking at potential runners in the QM

Fox Norton, could go ryanair.

UDS goes to ryanair.

Gods own, entered in both, no decision made but his last 2 runs were over 2m5f.

Special Tiara may not be the force of old but at least he's a pretty certain runner.

Uxiandre more likely to go ryanair.

Garde last victore don't know if he runs.

SDG needs soft ground to run of I recall correctly.

Sir Valentino is one I like at a huge price, pretty sure he'll run.

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Maybe the way to go is to throw in a couple where you would be quite hopeful with two more (NRNB) that are less likely to run but would have decent prospects if they did, eg. Uxizandre in the QM.

I have Un Temps Pour Tout in the Ultima/Clondaw Warrior in the Stayers/The Crafty Butcher in the Kim Muir. The last one numbers Mr PW Mullins amongst his owners which is why I think he'll go for the Kim Muir.
 
JamesRB said:
the place part on an identity thief/special tiara e/w double is 31/1 with stan james
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As slim often says, its often a case of find the bookmaker rather than find the horse. Bet365 Stan James sporting bet and betway appear to be going 1/4 odds for all races.

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Matter of opinion's; ante post I think it's a good title, bad idea.
Assuming your throwing away the win stakes because of the long odds on contenders; a 12/1 shot is evens a place 1.2.3 @ a 1/4 the odds a place in non handicap races.
So 2 x 12/1 in a place double = 15/1 / 2 = 15/2, and that's for just the 2 places remaining; if one doesn't run, even with nrnb, your bets go onto the other at the protracted evens, for 2 places.
Add to that, the ground is an unknown and the value dissipates some more.
Better to wait, lay out your stall; I.e. Bet place only doubles, trebles etc on the machine.
I personally prefer to do what your suggesting on the handicaps long range nrnb, this way the win sides are still very much alive.
 
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Had a look at this the other night. There are a number of problems:

  • Most bookmakers are 1/5 odds. This kills your edge
  • The festival is no longer predictable , no body knows running plans
  • The fact that Douvan and Altior are so short means horses are more likely to duck them
  • The NRNB concession compacts the prices
  • Will either the Arkle or the QM have less than 8 runners? If the answer is no why bet now?
 
Maxbet said:
Matter of opinion's; ante post I think it's a good title, bad idea.
Assuming your throwing away the win stakes because of the long odds on contenders; a 12/1 shot is evens a place 1.2.3 @ a 1/4 the odds a place in non handicap races.
So 2 x 12/1 in a place double = 15/1 / 2 = 15/2, and that's for just the 2 places remaining; if one doesn't run, even with nrnb, your bets go onto the other at the protracted evens, for 2 places.
Add to that, the ground is an unknown and the value dissipates some more.
Better to wait, lay out your stall; I.e. Bet place only doubles, trebles etc on the machine.
I personally prefer to do what your suggesting on the handicaps long range nrnb, this way the win sides are still very much alive.
Click to expand...

You clearly don't understand bad e/w. I shan't be educating you.
 
the only way to slip under the radar is to mix and match.
in run of the mill weekday races, the morning prices on bad each ways races are now generally superior to the betting shows close to the off, because the SIS ring price senders are taking price from only a select few on course bookmakers, not those betting on track win only.

at towcester on Wednesday there was a bad each way race with solighoster a long odds on shot. this was an eight runner race, the second favourite was a 5/1 shot and was bound to finish in the money barring accidents.
I studied the other 6 rags, spent 2 hours studying footage of all their available past races. I came to a conclusion that Giffords Jebs Gamble could easily grab the third as long it was trying, four of the others were useless, and the Dunn horse was likely to be hidden for handicapping reasons. Jebs Gamble was available overnight at 40/1, so to play the game, I decided to bank on him in the hope of a nice payout. To circumvent the systems, I placed Jebs Gamble in a sequence of each way doubles with my mini ante post list of ten horses for the grand national.
thankfully Jebs Gamble was allowed to run his best and comfortably took 3rd, his sp of 8/1, if nothing emphasizes the argument of taking the best available morning prices in these races. My best were ten £10 each way doubles, the outcome, is that with the banker leg placing at 40/1, I now have £90 running on ten horses to place in the first five in the Aintree grand national, prices on this ten ranging from 22/1 to 60/1, and if one of the ten places then I make £500 minimum.
If I had attempted to combine jebs gamble with other horses running on Wednesday, the bet including a bad each way race would must likely have been declined. the decision to combine the bad each wayer with the grand national( a mugs race), allowed me surf under the radar and get on.
I mention the above not for after timing, more so for to explain ways you can still possibly beat the automated rejection systems with online bookmakers.
 
Oh I fully understand bad e/w. The example above shows our friend placing such a bet on a same day runner, and covered 10 horses in the national in doubles, and on 10 selections so as to maximise his chances of at least getting a few in. Quite different to playing doubles on all your horses running 4 weeks from now. The odds won't deminish much if at all on runners in those races with long odds on shots. And as I said earlier; you'll have a better understanding of ground conditions.
 
Maxbet said:
Oh I fully understand bad e/w. The example above shows our friend placing such a bet on a same day runner, and covered 10 horses in the national in doubles, and on 10 selections so as to maximise his chances of at least getting a few in. Quite different to playing doubles on all your horses running 4 weeks from now. The odds won't deminish much if at all on runners in those races with long odds on shots. And as I said earlier; you'll have a better understanding of ground conditions.
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You made a point about playing place only doubles and trebles on the exchange which suggests to me you don't understand the maths in bad e/w.
 
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I made a preference. Set your stall out. A double place only..I think last time I looked Special Tiara was 7/1 place only...twice the stake on that; you have 16 points going on (Alpha) the other, only has to be evens and you have your 32/1.
 
Maxbet said:
I made a preference. Set your stall out. A double place only..I think last time I looked Special Tiara was 7/1 place only...twice the stake on that; you have 16 points going on (Alpha) the other, only has to be evens and you have your 32/1.
Click to expand...

Stop with the fuzzy maths. What is the objective when you place a bad e/w wager?
 
SlimChance said:
Had a look at this the other night. There are a number of problems:

  • Most bookmakers are 1/5 odds. This kills your edge
  • The festival is no longer predictable , no body knows running plans
  • The fact that Douvan and Altior are so short means horses are more likely to duck them
  • The NRNB concession compacts the prices
  • Will either the Arkle or the QM have less than 8 runners? If the answer is no why bet now?
Click to expand...
This thread should be about identifying likely runners in the arkle and QM for a start. I'm struggling to get more than 5 in the QM.

1/4 odds is a must alright.

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SlimChance said:
Stop with the fuzzy maths. What is the objective when you place a bad e/w wager?
Click to expand...

I’d say the objective is to find value in the bookmakers oversight. i.e. look for a arch typical race like the one Larry found; 8 runners with a long odds on fav. The race is usually priced up accurately for winning the race, but value can be sought in identifying horses with good place prospects at 1/5th or 1/4 the odds. Years ago In shops there would be a ruling to protect such races, and that would be 1/6th when the favs odds on. Guaranteed odds offered by online bookmakers leave themselves open and a slight edge for the punter.
 
Maxbet said:
I’d say the objective is to find value in the bookmakers oversight. i.e. look for a arch typical race like the one Larry found; 8 runners with a long odds on fav. The race is usually priced up accurately for winning the race, but value can be sought in identifying horses with good place prospects at 1/5th or 1/4 the odds. Years ago In shops there would be a ruling to protect such races, and that would be 1/6th when the favs odds on. Guaranteed odds offered by online bookmakers leave themselves open and a slight edge for the punter.
Click to expand...

The idea is to bet where the place market is overbroke. You've mentioned betting place only markets which are never bet overbroke. Place Only is never better than a well constructed bad e/w multiple.
 
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Still think it's a bad bet, our friend Larry has literally placed £900 of his own money on 10 horses to place, 5 of which are dead.
That's how much he would have had, had he just done the £100 e/w on the banker.
The place only bet on betfair was 8.2; he'd have had just short of twice his money for the £200 staked.
He now has 1/4 of the national field in place only bets assuming they all get in.
The odds of him getting 1 placed is 4/5 in his favour. 3/1 against him getting all 5 places.
The odds of a horse he hasn't got getting placed is 4/15 against.
Every horse in the National field is only marginally (fraction of a point) short of 1/4 the odds a place.
Admittedly there is only 4 places on that market though.
 
Maxbet said:
Still think it's a bad bet, our friend Larry has literally placed £900 of his own money on 10 horses to place, 5 of which are dead.
That's how much he would have had, had he just done the £100 e/w on the banker.
The place only bet on betfair was 8.2; he'd have had just short of twice his money for the £200 staked.
He now has 1/4 of the national field in place only bets assuming they all get in.
The odds of him getting 1 placed is 4/5 in his favour. 3/1 against him getting all 5 places.
The odds of a horse he hasn't got getting placed is 4/15 against.
Every horse in the National field is only marginally (fraction of a point) short of 1/4 the odds a place.
Admittedly there is only 4 places on that market though.
Click to expand...

"Oh my ******* God." That's my reaction to this.

Every horse in the National field is only marginally (fraction of a point) short of 1/4 the odds a place
Click to expand...

You don't understand where the value is in e/w betting and I've no incentive to educate you.
 
Don't see any value at all in relying on 2 of the 10 National selections having to get placed (odds of 8/5) to get back what you already had; £900. 3 placed (12/5) to better that. Right now he has nothing, just crossed fingers they all get a run (hope Don Poli wasn't one) and the ground doesn't turn bottomless.
 
If one of his falls jumping one of the 40 fences at breakneck pace; it's 3/1 against him bringing down one of his other selections...just joking
 
your maths is way out maxbet, and I interpret from your arguments that you are a "paper" punter as opposed to one who puts it down. I staked £200, 10 x £10 e/w.....I have £90 going onto 10 antepost. the shortest price of the ten is 22/1, and if one of the ten place in the first five, I win £585(on the 22/1 shot). If the 33/1 shots place I hit £832, if the 40/1 shots place £990, and if my 50/1 picks place the return is £1215. I will be content if 6 of the 10 picks actually run. I can easily take out a profit by place laying in the day, but I wouldn't. You are right I do have 5 dead ones(with a max of 5 places to be filled). But last year I done the exact same type of bet and from my original 10 antepost, 8 ran on the day, and I happened upon 3 of the first 5, rule the world(got 66/1), the last samurai (22/1) and goonyella(33/1) and I copped a five figure return from an initial stake of £400.

As a long time punter the bet I have done is an excellent bet, exploiting the bad each way angle, in fact so good that a pro punter in Ireland offered me £800 for the bet today. I am happy to take my chances that 2 will place in the first five and return me more than the £800 offer, I like the gamble.


on the other hand looking to double up the arkle/ queen mum ante post is not so simply as some imply, and certainly not a bad each way double. the reason, many entries in each race have multiple entries and if you have to dutch 2 or 3 in both races, then the return will be minimal. If I was doing it, I would bank on Charbel in the arkle and a couple in the QM, gods own/sire de grugy.
 

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