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Bad Habits

Marb said:
Does smoking dope improve your form study...

Honest question.. I just need a fresh pair of eyes sometimes. :)
Click to expand...

Most of my best days of betting have come after I've been awake at 3am looking at the form. Something about the middle of the night fog stops me from overthinking things.
 
I'm going through a spell which I'm trying to turn into a learning experience.

Having just moved into temporary rented accommodation while my new house is being built and, thanks to lies and incompetence on the part of various professional agencies, without internet for quite a while and, due to lack of space and time with everything going on, I've been unable to study the form.

I've therefore not been betting to any extent and have been curious to see if I can actually give it up.

I'm pretty sure I could. I'm on a medication until early December which precludes the intake of alcohol. Being a member of the Sunday Times Wine Club and used to my quarterly delivery of sumptuous Portuguese black reds, I thought I might find it difficult but not a bit of it. I'm used to going off drinking for Lent so I really just decided I'd be doing three successive Lents but it has been really easy.

I'm now wondering if I should bother going back to drinking when this is over.

I do struggle to let races like the Cambridgeshire go by, though.

So I've had a look at the race and punted a few based on gut instinct and recall of past form.

Majestic Dawn was very much on my radar for the same reasons as Wilsonl mentioned elsewhere but he's been taken out. Lucander is on a nice mark based on last year's race. I've put him up before this season and have to back him now. The chances are he's been trained for it. The other shortish one I've backed is Long Tradition. I've long been into Godolphins in big handicaps and it's interesting that they appear to have held this one back since establishing his handicap mark. The performance of Real World in the Hunt Cup remains deeply etched in my memory.

Chichester would have interested me at the big prices had I been able to access the form but his low draw now puts me off at the price.

The money for Anmaat might be a very strong tip in itself. Shadwells in handicaps is another source of interest to me.

But this is all without sitting down with all my paper form and studying paraphernalia. In other words, educated guesswork.

It remains to be seen whether it will bring me any success.
 
I must admit that educated guesswork is always the way I approach those big handicaps!

Another bad habit that I am attempting to cure myself of is that of placing my bets too early and all at once. I think it has to be better to let the market develop before diving in. When I was working, betting early was often the only way that I could get on but now that I am retired there's no sense in it.
 
I have widened my interest now to include handicaps of 8 to 10 runners in class 4, 5, & 6 races. I’m still using the same Excel sheet to compile a tissue, then compare my top three with the top three in the betting, then back the ones that closest to each other in price.
I have also started betting at one point win, two points place. It’s amazing how many come 4th but at the moment I seem to be following a slow but steady upward curve.
This does mean that in most cases I am betting the 2nd or 3rd fav at prices between 5/1 and 9/1, so was all the effort to produce that Excel sheet really worth it!
 
walsworth said:
I have widened my interest now to include handicaps of 8 to 10 runners in class 4, 5, & 6 races. I’m still using the same Excel sheet to compile a tissue, then compare my top three with the top three in the betting, then back the ones that closest to each other in price.
I have also started betting at one point win, two points place. It’s amazing how many come 4th but at the moment I seem to be following a slow but steady upward curve.
This does mean that in most cases I am betting the 2nd or 3rd fav at prices between 5/1 and 9/1, so was all the effort to produce that Excel sheet really worth it!
Click to expand...

GL Walsworth, hope that your path to success will continue.
 
walsworth said:
I have widened my interest now to include handicaps of 8 to 10 runners in class 4, 5, & 6 races. I’m still using the same Excel sheet to compile a tissue, then compare my top three with the top three in the betting, then back the ones that closest to each other in price.
Click to expand...

Have you tracked the fortunes of those priced longest compared with your tissue?

I'd have thought one of the principles of successful betting is to beat the odds. If your method of creating a tissue is sound, then the ones with the biggest differential should be the most profitable. The strike rate might be lower but the long-term profit should be higher.
 
Betting when pissed is a bad habit. I’m lucky that I’ve never had one single bet of more than £25 in my life, but it’s easy to allow the £2-£4 losses to accumulate. Way too easy to top up the online account too, after a few losses and a few beers. Still nothing I can’t afford to lose, and I have the discipline to bank any decent winnings quickly; but it’s still a bad habit.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Have you tracked the fortunes of those priced longest compared with your tissue?

I'd have thought one of the principles of successful betting is to beat the odds. If your method of creating a tissue is sound, then the ones with the biggest differential should be the most profitable. The strike rate might be lower but the long-term profit should be higher.
Click to expand...

I think the long losing runs would be too much for me, but I will have a look at it.

Here is my chart for the 2:40 at Leicester.

[TABLE="width: 480"]
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD]No.[/TD]
[TD]Name[/TD]
[TD]Rating[/TD]
[TD]Fair Odds/1[/TD]
[TD]Exchange[/TD]
[TD]Odds[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD]Hurry Up Hedley (IRE)[/TD]
[TD]65.00[/TD]
[TD]2.84[/TD]
[TD]3.84[/TD]
[TD]4.33[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[TD]Gilbert[/TD]
[TD]36.00[/TD]
[TD]5.79[/TD]
[TD]6.79[/TD]
[TD]8.50[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD]Midgetonamission (IRE)[/TD]
[TD]27.00[/TD]
[TD]8.53[/TD]
[TD]9.53[/TD]
[TD]4.50[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD]Fille De La Lune[/TD]
[TD]24.00[/TD]
[TD]10.13[/TD]
[TD]11.13[/TD]
[TD]8.50[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]9[/TD]
[TD]Wynn Palace (IRE)[/TD]
[TD]21.00[/TD]
[TD]12.46[/TD]
[TD]13.46[/TD]
[TD]11.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]10[/TD]
[TD]Takeyourbreathaway[/TD]
[TD]18.00[/TD]
[TD]16.20[/TD]
[TD]17.20[/TD]
[TD]6.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD]Divining (IRE)[/TD]
[TD]18.00[/TD]
[TD]16.20[/TD]
[TD]17.20[/TD]
[TD]10.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD]Capla Fever (IRE)[/TD]
[TD]15.00[/TD]
[TD]23.14[/TD]
[TD]24.14[/TD]
[TD]8.50[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD]Solanna[/TD]
[TD]9.00[/TD]
[TD]162.00[/TD]
[TD]163.00[/TD]
[TD]26.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD]Lisas Dream (IRE)[/TD]
[TD]9.00[/TD]
[TD]162.00[/TD]
[TD]163.00[/TD]
[TD]
51.00



[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 

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