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Bet365 Gold Cup (the Whitbread to old fannies like me)

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
Messages
27,978
I hope this race is worth a thread on its own.

It's a race I've loved since I punted Titus Oates when it won back in the day and it's a race that seldom disappoints [me, at any rate].

I've just done my figures for the race but haven't tabulated them yet and will do so then post them on here in due course.

I do think it is potentially one of the most competitive renewals in recent memory.

We know last year's disqualified winner Enrilo has been trained for it again but it's looking to me like several others have too, and some of them strike me as being well up to serving it to Enrilo.


  • Win My Wings & Kitty's Light, 1st and 2nd in the Scottish National
  • Last year's awardee Potterman
  • Last year's runner-up Kitty's Light
  • Durham National winner Hewick
  • Ultima winner Corach Rambler
  • £100k RP Trophy Chase [as was] winner Cap Du Nord
  • Previous winner Step Back
  • Musical Slave 7lbs well in after his recent win

And cases can be made on revised marks for many others.

I'm slobbering all over the keyboard as I type.

Bring it on!
 
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Copied from the Longshot thread:

At this early stage it looks like my main bet in the race will be Tea Clipper at 25/1, 4 places. I now think it's been trained for this race since it won a decent novice chase at Chepstow in the autumn.

That day, he beat three opponents rated 149, 147 and 146, priced at 11/4, 7/2 and 3/1 respectively, by 3L, 12L and 15L on decent ground over 2½ miles, racing prominently and jumping well.

Since then he's been ridden much more conservatively but if he's got the pace to lead at 2½ miles he can lead them the clichéd merry dance here. He's a winning 3m pointer and first season novice so I'm quite excited about his prospects.

That said, I'll be punting several, as per.
 
I must admit I'm waiting to see jockey bookings.you have to think win my wings has to have a 7lb claimer again and so does HEWICK.
I'd like to see Kittys light win for my ew yankee.a/p
Will be interesting to see if streets of doyen runs after being a late withdrawal from the irish national.
Enrilo does look to be the one to beat.
I like this race as it can often change after the last and is usually a exciting run in.
One race that seems to suit hold up horses.
The problem is big prices dont tend to win.
 
BTW Happy Birthday Arkle...the great horse won this in 1965 along with 4 or 5 other Gold Cup winners plus some other real class horses over the years.

Now? a pile of manure headed by a horse 30lbs behind this years Gold Cup winner.

Potterman could win it again which would at least make it interesting

The Celebration Chase is at least a fair bit more appealing if they all turn up.


Sorry for the rant but Sandown have let this one time great chase go to pot:(
 
Outsider said:
I must admit I'm waiting to see jockey bookings.you have to think win my wings has to have a 7lb claimer again and so does HEWICK.
I'd like to see Kittys light win for my ew yankee.a/p
Will be interesting to see if streets of doyen runs after being a late withdrawal from the irish national.
Enrilo does look to be the one to beat.
I like this race as it can often change after the last and is usually a exciting run in.
One race that seems to suit hold up horses.
The problem is big prices dont tend to win.
Click to expand...

I'd love Kitty's Light to land that ew a/p yankee for you, Outsider. It was a wee bit unlucky last year too (when I backed it, I'm pretty sure.)

Streets Of Doyen was blue across the board last night. I presume someone of influence put it up somewhere.
 
Doesn’t seem to be any handicap blot - maybe Musical Slave who is due to go up 7lb - and all seem pretty exposed, so agree it’s probably down to who has been trained very much with this one in mind and the leader of those and with something to prove after last year is Enrilo. Others who look appealing may have left this one behind with earlier targets.
 
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Euronymous said:
Actually more excited about the three runner Gordon Richards on Friday. Too many boat races this time of year.
Click to expand...

I dont really understand why people can get excited about 3 or 4 runner races.
Everybody is different I know,but I still dont understand why.
 
I'm not excited about that race at all. But I'm even less excited about another ******* long distance handicap chase. The Midlands National I didn't even watch. I fell asleep during the Scottish National because it was so boring. The Irish version was passable because there were actually a few decent horses in that one but enough is enough. Enrilo heading the market tells you all you need to know about the lack of quality here.
 
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I noticed SOD going blue on Tuesday evening and presumed someone of influence had put it up.

The other one that went blue - surprisingly enough considering it was in no great demand for the National - was Domaine De L'Isle.

It turned out Paul Kealy put both up at 33/1 in the Weekender.

I had a small bet on DDLI at Aintree so will probably need to take out some sickness insurance on both. I'd hate to miss out on a nice-priced winner through stubbornness.
 
The rest of the card is truly shocking. 4 & 5 runner Oaksey & Celebration chases are bad enough but the 4 runner Select hurdle worth £80K (£45K to the winner) is seriously embarrassing and belies it’s name
 
Tea Clipper not declared. That's a big hit for me to take as I was into it quite heavily.

If it ends up running in the Hennessy I'll be on it.
 
One of my favourite races of the season.

At the moment, I have two: Kitty's Light and Domaine De L'Isle.

I wonder if Musical Slave will run but if he does, then I'll do him too.

I've written the race up more fully on my blog, if anyone's interested.
 
Musical slave , blue across the board.7lb well in as goes up 7lb for future races.

With the claims,win my wings only has to give Hewick 1lb.shows what Hewick is up against.oh well,too late now.
 
Outsider said:
Musical slave , blue across the board.7lb well in as goes up 7lb for future races.

With the claims,win my wings only has to give Hewick 1lb.shows what Hewick is up against.oh well,too late now.
Click to expand...

Hewick now 11/1 best having been 25s this morning. Took the 16s on offer earlier this evening. Has pricewise put this one up?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Desert Orchid said:
I hope this race is worth a thread on its own.


I do think it is potentially one of the most competitive renewals in recent memory.

We know last year's disqualified winner Enrilo has been trained for it again but it's looking to me like several others have too, and some of them strike me as being well up to serving it to Enrilo.


  • Win My Wings & Kitty's Light, 1st and 2nd in the Scottish National
  • Last year's awardee Potterman
  • Last year's runner-up Kitty's Light
  • Durham National winner Hewick
  • Ultima winner Corach Rambler NR
  • £100k RP Trophy Chase [as was] winner Cap Du Nord
  • Previous winner Step Back
  • Musical Slave 7lbs well in after his recent win

And cases can be made on revised marks for many others.
Click to expand...

I haven't been following the market since Thursday's decs but I took 15/1 (boosted) Musical Slave shortly after I typed that. Might make up a wee bit for losing out on Tea Clipper. I still plan to lay off Enrilo if it's still around the 7/2 mark. I got 13/2 earlier in the week so I'm in a not bad position with that one as well.
 
[TABLE="width: 883"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]Stats
[/TD]
[TD]Age
[/TD]
[TD]Weight
[/TD]
[TD]Trainer
[/TD]
[TD]Jockey
[/TD]
[TD]OR
[/TD]
[TD]MON
168
[/TD]
[TD]Notes
[/TD]
[TD]RPR
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Domaine De L'Isle
[/TD]
[TD]t
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]10-12
[/TD]
[TD]Sean Curran
[/TD]
[TD]Brian Hughes
[/TD]
[TD]140
[/TD]
[TD](172)
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]165
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Step Back
[/TD]
[TD]b1 CD
[/TD]
[TD]12
[/TD]
[TD]10-2
[/TD]
[TD]M Bradstock
[/TD]
[TD]L Bradstock 7
[/TD]
[TD]130
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[TD]o e d
{178}
[/TD]
[TD]154
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Kitty's Light
[/TD]
[TD]t p1 bf
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]11-3
[/TD]
[TD]C Williams
[/TD]
[TD]Jack Tudor
[/TD]
[TD]145
[/TD]
[TD]169
[/TD]
[TD]+?
[/TD]
[TD]161
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Enrilo
[/TD]
[TD]p C
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]11-2
[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls
[/TD]
[TD]H Cobden
[/TD]
[TD]144
[/TD]
[TD]169
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]166
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Fidux
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]10-12
[/TD]
[TD]Alan King
[/TD]
[TD]Daryl Jacob
[/TD]
[TD]140
[/TD]
[TD]169
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]165
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Musical Slave
[/TD]
[TD]p C
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]10-2
[/TD]
[TD]Philip Hobbs
[/TD]
[TD]Tom O'Brien
[/TD]
[TD]130
[/TD]
[TD]168
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]167
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Potterman
[/TD]
[TD]CD
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]11-7
[/TD]
[TD]Alan King
[/TD]
[TD]Tom Cannon
[/TD]
[TD]149
[/TD]
[TD]167
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]160
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Prime Venture
[/TD]
[TD]p C
[/TD]
[TD]11
[/TD]
[TD]10-5
[/TD]
[TD]E Williams
[/TD]
[TD]Adam Wedge
[/TD]
[TD]133
[/TD]
[TD]165
[/TD]
[TD]+ e
[/TD]
[TD]165
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Streets Of Doyen
[/TD]
[TD]t p
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]10-11
[/TD]
[TD]J C McConnell
[/TD]
[TD]Brian Hayes
[/TD]
[TD]139
[/TD]
[TD]164
[/TD]
[TD]nov
[/TD]
[TD]158
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Via Dolorosa
[/TD]
[TD]t b
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]10-7
[/TD]
[TD]David Pipe
[/TD]
[TD]T Scudamore
[/TD]
[TD]135
[/TD]
[TD]163
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]164
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Cap Du Nord
[/TD]
[TD]p C
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]10-7
[/TD]
[TD]C Williams
[/TD]
[TD]ST-Davies
[/TD]
[TD]135
[/TD]
[TD]162
[/TD]
[TD]+?
[/TD]
[TD]163
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] El Paso Wood
[/TD]
[TD]t
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]10-0
[/TD]
[TD]David Pipe
[/TD]
[TD]P Armson 5
[/TD]
[TD]128
[/TD]
[TD]162
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]161
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Win My Wings
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]11-12
[/TD]
[TD]C Williams
[/TD]
[TD]Mr R James 7
[/TD]
[TD]154
[/TD]
[TD]161
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]157
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Flegmatik
[/TD]
[TD]t
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]10-11
[/TD]
[TD]Dan Skelton
[/TD]
[TD]Harry Skelton
[/TD]
[TD]139
[/TD]
[TD]161
[/TD]
[TD]+p nov
(165e nov)
[/TD]
[TD]163
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Hewick
[/TD]
[TD]p D
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]11-7
[/TD]
[TD]JJ Hanlon
[/TD]
[TD]J Gainford 3
[/TD]
[TD]149
[/TD]
[TD]160
[/TD]
[TD]+p nov
[/TD]
[TD]162
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

LONG HANDICAP El Paso Wood 9-11
FUTURE OR Musical Slave (+7), Cap Du Nord (-1), El Paso Wood (-3)

I haven’t backed it yet but I think Kitty’s Light might be the percentage call in this renewal which more than makes up for in competitiveness what it might lack in outright class. Earlier in the week I took 13/2 Enrilo and 15/1 Musical Slave (plus a couple of non-runners) and I might seriously consider laying them off. They were good bets at those prices but I now fancy others more strongly, especially Kitty’s Light. I’ll probably back the top two as they’re both in the 20/1+ bracket. I thought maybe Domaine De L’Isle needed it soft but his best RPRs are on better ground. Step Back has the winning of this [again] on his old form and the 7lbs claim might help a bit. I presume the amateur claimer knows the horse well and vice versa, while the first-time blinkers might also help. Enrilo, Potterman and Kitty’s Light represent last year’s principals and Kitty’s Light is weighted to emerge ahead and wears first-time cheekpieces. Musical Slave is 7lbs well in, which is why I backed him during the week. Flegmatik is the other one not to be sniffed at… but 9/1 isn’t giving anything away. Hewick has potential but his price is long gone.
 
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Musical Slave could be an absolutely handicap certainty here.

He made the Tommy Whittle winner Engarde look like a tree last time out.

With only 10.2 to carry he gets a stone and upwards from his main market rivals
and must be in with a great shout IMO

Musical Slave 15/2 EW 5 places
 
Tanlic said:
Musical Slave could be an absolutely handicap certainty here.

He made the Tommy Whittle winner Engarde look like a tree last time out.

With only 10.2 to carry he gets a stone and upwards from his main market rivals
and must be in with a great shout IMO

Musical Slave 15/2 EW 5 places
Click to expand...

I've written a bit about Musical Slave in my blog on the race with some views on his form and race conditions.. Have a look.

Good luck with him.
 
Apart from Musical Slave who comes out top in my little system the next ones all have squiggles next to them so the next batch are Domain, Fidux and Flegmatic (Domain has an UR which probably earns him a squiggle). That Pipe horse ran really well for along time at Uttoxeter so I’ll have to put some pennies on him as well. It’ll be interesting to see if, after the shock of the National, the stats hold up for this race. Looking forward to it. Years since I went to it. Seem to remember a beautiful horse called St Mellion Fairway running that year, which was named after a place I lived near to in Cornwall. (feeling very old….)
 

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