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Betfair Ascot Chase

Fanion is a decent horse but not good enough to get into the right positions in Gd1. Peterborough Chase level. Gd1 placer on his day. Thought he was going to pick up the front two for a struggle or two.
 
You just have to compare his two most recent runs, both over the same c&d - in the handicap he was always in touch and just got beaten by a horse on a good mark. Today he was behind and I would say taken out of his comfort zone but plugged on well behind tired horses to get third.
 
Yeah. There is/shouldn't be a difference between a grade 2 chaser and a top weight in a decent handicap. Good game horse.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Looks like I'm farting against thunder with my enthusiasm for Fanion.

Oh well. I'll live with it...
Click to expand...

For what it's worth,I'm with you.i didnt think he jumped as well today and I was thinking throughout the race,why doesnt he try and get closer.
Ok maybe he couldnt,but I didnt think he tried too much.just my opinion.

But why isnt the discussion about the runs of Mr Fisher or saint calvados.
That's what a forum is about.
 
Was clear early he wasn't winning. Couldn't lay up, jumping under pressure.
More aggressive ride sees him pulled up or tailed off.
 
Outsider said:
For what it's worth,I'm with you.i didnt think he jumped as well today and I was thinking throughout the race,why doesnt he try and get closer.
Ok maybe he couldnt,but I didnt think he tried too much.just my opinion.

But why isnt the discussion about the runs of Mr Fisher or saint calvados.
That's what a forum is about.
Click to expand...


He did try several times, but losing ground at the fences and the uncomfortable pace didn’t help.

As for Mister Fisher he was doomed from the start by the going. At least he finished though. Saint Calvados was a bit erratic and stopped quickly, bled apparently.
 
I've run the two CD races in which Fanion has run recently, yesterday and the PW race.

On both occasions the going was described as soft. The big difference, though, is that last month it had the rider (good to soft in places) whereas yesterday it said (heavy in places) so I knew there would be a difference and the bare time last month was about 10 seconds faster.

Yesterday's race got to the first slightly quicker but thereafter it was the January race that moved ahead and gradually went further clear (which you'd expect based on the ground).

I'm not a fan of Topspeed ratings, preferring to do my own, which I'll get round to, but the TS figures for the January race were 20lbs faster than yesterday.

Last month, Fanion went prominent early travelling well and clearly faster than yesterday and crossed the line half a furlong ahead of where Fakir was yesterday.

Now, I'm not suggesting for a nanosecond that that should be taken literally but, for me, it dispels the notion that Fanion couldn't travel any faster yesterday unless there was a good reason for it. I suspect he struggled in the ground, which I genuinely didn't anticipate.

I did this exercise to see if I was misguided in my belief in the horse, half-anticipating to come on here and eat humble pie but I'm more convinced than ever that I should give the horse another chance on better ground.
 
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Go along with that, desert. I think the going was difficult for both Fakir and Fanion.

Strange to tell, according to the RP the going stick reading came up softer last time, until it was changed yesterday at least. With the reading they report the going was heavy last time - something must be wrong!

Going: SOFT (Good to soft in places; Chs 5.0, Hdl 5.3) 22 January
Going: SOFT (Chs 6.1; Hdl 5.6) changing to SOFT (Heavy in places) after Race 3 (2.25) Yesterday

https://www.bet4bettor.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Going-Stick-Scale-National-Hunt-.png
 
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I've now run the race side by side with the big 3m hcap chase, starting the timing from the first fence in the shorter race.

By the time they got to the last fence in the straight the Fakir race was about 20 lengths in front, which you might expect for a shorter race. They ultimately got about 30 lengths in front but the longer race was closing it down again from about three out.

This would suggest that the pace in the shorter race was indeed strong in the conditions.
 

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