Betfair Chase

Euronymous

Euronymous

Senior Jockey
Joined
Jan 6, 2005
Messages
19,082
Location
Leyland
Long Run evs
Diamond Harry 8
Time for Rupert 8
Weird Al 8
Kauto 10
Rubi Light 16
Albertas 20


Long Run easy to oppose first time out at that price. Harry stands out a mile for this but I'd rather take 13/2 on the day than 8/1 now.
 
Not really Euro - one is more than likely out for the season and the other is touted for the Gold Cup and won just the other day. At least Grands Crus is in full work! :)
 
I suppose. To be fair if he did line up he'd have a better shot than Kauto Star - who I managed to lay at 6s a couple of weeks back.
 
If I thought Rubi Light was showing up 16/1 would be huge. This horse is being regularly underestimated and is improving at a rate of knots. With a bit of give underfoot I think he could shake up Long Run.
 
Is the value you bet in a race not the forcast?

You'll be getting 4/1 at best for a good priced outsider to reach the frame but putting something together with Long Run who'll win is the better option

Thoughts guys?

Look at the people who took on the great racehorses, Frankel, Sea The Stars - they were wrong on every occasion.
 
After 5 day decs:

Long Run 10/11 PP
Diamond Harry 7/1 Gen.
Weird Al 7/1 Gen.
Kauto Star 8/1 Gen.
Time For Rupert 9/1 Coral & Hills
Rubi Light 14/1 Gen.
Nacarat 33/1 VC
Pure Faith 66/1 Gen.
 
I totally agree Granger. If that rule applied in 2003 Iris's Gift would have won the RSA Hurdle and I'd be almost a £million better off
 
granger said:
I like Pipe and think he has a good head on his shoulders. I doubt he will make a rash decision
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Hence the end of January? Usually a small field, a course he's used to Unlike Gloria Victis and reflection time till March?
 
granger said:
It would mean on his 3rd chase in Britain, running in the GC. Not for me Harry
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Yes I agree but I have an open mind just in case Granger....eg if they switched Big Bucks it would be much the same in a wide open year
 
Bruce_Savage said:
Is the value you bet in a race not the forcast?

You'll be getting 4/1 at best for a good priced outsider to reach the frame but putting something together with Long Run who'll win is the better option

Thoughts guys?
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Might be better backing said outsider ew while there's still 3 places available, and covering the win part of the bet with a forecast?
Long Run will likely go off 1/2 or shorter, and csf's aren't geared toward generosity in such markets.
 
Euronymous said:
Long Run evs
Diamond Harry 8
Time for Rupert 8
Weird Al 8
Kauto 10
Rubi Light 16
Albertas 20


Long Run easy to oppose first time out at that price. Harry stands out a mile for this but I'd rather take 13/2 on the day than 8/1 now.
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I wouldn’t be brimming with confidence about Diamond Harry. I know the yard had been making bullish noises about him earlier this season, but in my experience injury to suspensory ligaments is never a good thing and they are rarely able to come back in sustained soundness at top level.

Getting cast in his box ahead of the Charlie Hall won’t have helped either – apparently he damaged a leg (although this is probably not too serious in itself). I'd certainly hold off backing him ante-post and would be very surprised if he was able to win if he does line up.
 
Got the RP/Sporting Life database from up to 30 years ago so I'm going to go through some of the comments the trainers said before hand prior to the race and see if we can possibly find any trends into the behaviourism of their speach.

Here's what they said

2005

Tom Taaffe (Kicking King): "I expect him to show the benefit of that run at Punchestown and I'm very happy with him right now," said Taaffe yesterday. "His final serious piece of work last Friday was very good and he'll just have a canter tomorrow.

"He's very adaptable, so running at Haydock for the first time shouldn't be a bother. Going-wise, he's probably best on perfect jumping ground, like it was for the Gold Cup. But he has won on atrocious ground in Ireland so, again, that's not a worry."

Robert Alner (Kingscliff): "Haydock is dead flat and the trip is the same as at Wetherby. In terms of facing Ollie Magern again, Kingscliff would probably prefer a longer trip against him.

"I'm not confident of re-versing the form with him and, of course, there are many other good horses, too.

"We're all set, though, and I'm very happy with the way Kingscliff has been working lately. He has come on for his run at Wetherby. The going won't matter and Rob Walford rides him again, as he will all season."

Peter Bowen (Take The Strand): "He ran well to be third at Wetherby. He's got some good form and if the ground is good he will have a decent chance. He will run even if the heavens open. Tony Dobbin will ride him again, and he's a good price at around 20-1. He's a tough horse and has a chance."

Michael Hourigan (Beef or Salmon): "clean as a whistle and on target for Haydock".


2006

Paul Nicholls (Kauto Star): "I'm very pleased with him and, all being well, he'll go to Haydock. I've also entered him for the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon, but that's just in case the ground at Haydock turns out to be bottomless."

Michael Hourigan (Beef or Salmon):"At this stage he is more than likely to run. He bounced back well after his race at Down Royal last Saturday week, so we've decided he's entitled to travel, all being well in the meantime."
 
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Having watched the Gold Cup last night for the first time in ages, I'd forgotton how well Kauto Star showed up for a long way. If anything, I think Ruby had him going for home too far out, initially taken on by Imperial Commander, and then Denman, eventually softened for Long Run to pick up the pieces before the last 2 fences. With a view to a flat 3m, there;s absolutely no way that Long Run shaped like an 11 length better horse than Kauto Star that day. He's even older now though, and has to put the Punchestown flop behind him, but 8/1 for one last big day makes some appeal to me.
 
The days are long gone when Kauto Star shaped liked a flat course 3m horse himself, DJ, and I doubt he'll make the first 3 if it's any sort of speed test.
 
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