Betfair Chase

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Ardross

Senior Jockey
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Aug 8, 2007
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I see Long Run is 6-4 favourite ! How can that be justified on last season's form ???

He should be 2-1 surely at the shortest .
 
Second in Betfair, second in KG and third in Gold Cup. I'd say that's form miles better than anything he's going to face at Haydock, isn't it?
 
4/6, never mind 6/4, wouldn't be a bad price on Long Run when the second horse looks short of top class (albeit very good), the third is rising 12 and hasn't run for 2 years, and the 4th is Giant Bolster. You are then into Tidal Bay etc.
 
No Cue Card, runners are



Tidal Bay (IRE) 21
11 11-7 P F Nicholls

Imperial Commander (IRE) 617
11 11-7 N A Twiston-Davies

Midnight Chase 21
10 11-7 N P Mulholland

Weird Al (IRE) 224
9 11-7 D McCain Jnr

Long Run (FR) 253
7 11-7 N J Henderson

The Giant Bolster 253
7 11-7 D G Bridgwater

Cannington Brook (IRE) 21
8 11-7 C L Tizzard

Wayward Prince 21
8 11-7 Mrs Hilary Parrott

Silviniaco Conti (FR) 21
6 11-7 P F Nicholls
 
Big Ask to expect Imperial Commander to come back to his best although he was always best fresh.

Silviano Conti substitutes for the retired Kauto Star and would need to improve another stone since his last run to win this.

Weird Al ran well in this before and was going well for long way. Still he's hard to fancy on all known form.

Midnight Chase Too many chances in this class not good enough.

Wayward Who? Overfaced to hell

Can't see any of the above beating Long Run who has a ton in hand

Tidal Bay: Don't know if the plan is to run him but if they do I will definitely have something on him as he is capable of just about anything if in the mood and the moods have been good of late.

Long Run and Tidal Bay against the field.
 
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SC may not have to improve an ounce. Hes doddled last two races. The last one was an uninspiring field but the way he travelled and dominated in both indicated to me a very changed horse since Ascot. And we know the trainer is a master at this

I think hes a little short compared to proven form but LR is one im always happy to take on. Just have that feeling his best has gone now
 
With most books paying first 3, there'd be worse bets than ew Giant Bolster at current double figure odds.
Looks a definite runner, improved 18lbs (OR) last season, culminating in edging out Long Run at Cheltenham, and likely to continue that progression this. Went off too quickly at Newbury previous run, but hopefully they've learned from that & hard to see him out of the places.
 
I reckon he'll be very fit for this MKK.

Last season Nicky was convinced he'd win both the King George and the Gold Cup and trained him with that in mind.

After last season's let downs I reckon he'll be looking at winning whatever he can with the horse while he can,
 
his jumping still concerns me any pressure up front and seems to make mistakes i think its going to be a close race with silviano conte
 
As most say I think Long Run is the one to beat.

I've got the feeling he'll either win easily or run no race whatsoever, I don't think there will be much in between for him this season.

He'll either come back to his form two seasons ago and probably at his tender age improve on it a bit on top, or deteriorate further from last season.

I hopei he finds his best form again, and all things considered with the positive comments from connections you'd have to say he will start odds-on to do so on Saturday.
 
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The Commander is a real favourite of mine. Mostly because he landed me a right touch in the Ryanair.

I'd expect that Twister will only be planning to run him twice - here and in the GC - so you would think he'll be as fit as he can possibly get him and if he's anywhere near his best he'll put it up to Long Run. I've never really taken to the Henderson horse and hope the Commander stages a Lazarusesque comeback like his old foe Kauto.
 
Seem to recall that many on here blamed Long Run's defeat in this last season to lack of fitness, and made him KG fav on the strength of it.
Truth is, he produced exactly the same round of iffy jumping in both races - and fitness had little to do with it.
 
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It is nonsense to say Long Run wasn't fit last year - Kauto Star just jumped him silly .

He scraped home in one race last year and his GC defeat was a pretty poor show - on form it should have been a formality for him once kauto was pulled up .

6-4 still strikes me as a very short price for a horse beaten on three of his last four starts ( albeit the first two by a legend ) - against an up and coming horse like Silviniaco Conti - whose first second season run strikes me as better than Long Run's equivalent in the Paddy Power GC
 
I think we need to step back and realise just how good Long Run has been, for one so young. The only 6yo since Mill House to win a Gold cup. He may of also been the only 5yo to win a King George since 1950 when Manicou won the race. Had the race not succumbed to the weather and ended up being run in January. It would still make him the earliest 6yo winner of the race.Then look at the 6yo's that have won the race - Kauto Star, Kicking King, Algan, The Fellow,Mill House & Mandarin. What shame was there in losing in the 2011 race, to the horse people regard as the greatest modern day chaser and who also holds the record of winning it five times. He still came second. I think we have yet to see the best of Long Run and i agree his jumping needs brushing up, but then a certain Kauto Star was never the greatest jumper in his early years either. For all we know,he may of still been growing into himself, as most horses don't reach full maturity until 7 years of age. This season shall tell us all we need to know, but it'll take a good one to beat Long Run.
 
The problem with Long Run is he's as thick as two short planks and even Yogi Bresnser can't get him out of the habit he picked up in France of dropping the undercarriage every now an then.

People have short memories and seem to forget that Paul Nichols said last season that The Betfair Chase was Kauto's Gold cup while Nicky said he had Long Run as fit as he could get him at home, was fit enough to do himself justice but would improve for the run. As things worked out he was right as Long Run got a lot closer to Kauto in the King George.

Looking back at Kauto Star how many times has he turned up first time out short of a run? Quite frankly PN or Nicky couldn't give a damn if their horses were beat 1/2 a length in a race like the Betfair as long as they ran well, not if it meant them being spot on for and winning the King George and/or the Gold Cup.

PN always left something to work on as has Nicky Henderson more often than not. Judging just how much they have to do to win when they are not going flat out with training is very difficult and PN has often said he got it wrong.

For a layman like myself or anyone outside of the inner workings of the game to say Long Run was definitely fit last year is a pure guess but logical thinking would surely tell anyone the chances are he was not.

To be sure I have never been a Long Run fan despite as Flemenstar says he's achieved a lot for his age and the fact remains in Kauto Star and Denman's departure he is the best on form we have.

How long he will remain so is anyone guess but there are a hoard of horses out there like Flemenstar, Sir Des Champs, Bog Warrior, Last Instalment, First Lieutenant,Al Ferof his stable companions Bobsworth and Finian's Rainbow any one of which could be lowering his colours in the near future but the leap between winning the likes of the RSA or some Irish novice is like jumping the grand canyon. Long Run has been there and done it the others only have the potential to do it.

Silviniaco Conti won the Charlie Hall which has been won by some very good horses like Wayward lad, Forgive n Forget, Burrough Hill Lad but as of late it hasn't exactly been hotly contested. It was a desperately bad race this year and I doubt if we will be adding the Nichols horse to those with the potential to dethrone Long Run or be winning Gold Cups

The main worry with Long Run has to be is he on the downgrade? Don't forget he's already had as many runs at 7yo as Denman had in his entire career. All the signs are there, A poor run in the Betfair, Beaten by an aging Kauto Star in the King George, scraped home from Burton Port and well beaten in the Gold cup.

It must have at least crossed Nicky Henderson's mind that he may not be the horse he was and is no good thing for the King George or the Gold Cup so what would any trainer do?

Get him as fit as you can and win something before the big guns come after you just like Willie Mullins did the other day with Hurricane Fly.
 
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This is logic i dont get tanlic. Because sc won a "bad race" he hasnt got ability to hit the top? Even if he wins as easy as you like? I just couldnt be that dogmatic

Im with reet and aragon here. Fitness had nothing to do with it at all. Since when does fitness make a horse avoid standard mistakes?
 
My opinion is Long Run peaked very early and is on the downward curve.should really have been winning last years GC.Clearly has/had an engine but the fitness issue is used far to often as an excuse over hs deficiencies in technique.That given it should still win on all known form.Silviniaco Conti won Charlie Hall,soft race which was run to suit and his form suggests he needs to be fresh.Can't have imperial commander so short after such a long lay off.I Would rather be taking a double figured price about Tidal Bay to be staying on into place money.
 
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