Betfair Chase

The suggestion that LR had jumping issues in France is without foundation.

The horse gets the jockey out of trouble, imo.
 
Ardross said:
It is nonsense to say Long Run wasn't fit last year - Kauto Star just jumped him silly .
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it should be nonsense for you
I think he was not fully fit and lost the rythm

Long Run at his best would have beaten Kauto last year confortably
 
If Long Run jumps like he did when winning the KG he wins. If he jumps poorly he doesn't. In my opinion he is more likely to jump poorly than not so I will be opposing him with something or having no bet. Only an exceptional horse can win a G1 jumping poorly. LR is not an exceptional horse.
 
Gold Cup winners going the way of Imperial Commander (and Long Run if last year's form is anything to go by) makes Kauto Star's durability even more impressive - we should be grateful we got to see him for so long!

I'm tempted to go round to the bookies and ask for a cheeky quote on Long Run for the World Hurdle, just in case he jumps like a dog and Henderson decides to go the Big Buck's route...
 
Grasshopper said:
The suggestion that LR had jumping issues in France is without foundation.

The horse gets the jockey out of trouble, imo.
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Who said he had jumping issues in France? French fences are not the same as those in the uk the horse very often jump through them because they can. Long Run seems to think he's still in France sometimes
 
Imperial has a stress fracture and they reckon he'll be back in the new year. Shame. But i reckon thats it.
 
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Tanlic said:
Who said he had jumping issues in France? French fences are not the same as those in the uk the horse very often jump through them because they can. Long Run seems to think he's still in France sometimes
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They need to stop feeding the fecker onions then!
 
Flagship uberalles said:
Gold Cup winners going the way of Imperial Commander (and Long Run if last year's form is anything to go by) makes Kauto Star's durability even more impressive - we should be grateful we got to see him for so long!

I'm tempted to go round to the bookies and ask for a cheeky quote on Long Run for the World Hurdle, just in case he jumps like a dog and Henderson decides to go the Big Buck's route...
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Let alone Best Mate winning it three times in a row . It does seem that with Best Mate , Kauto Star winning the race back and Denman winning it and being second three times people have forgotten how desperately hard it is to win more than one Gold Cup .
 
clivex said:
This is logic i dont get tanlic. Because sc won a "bad race" he hasnt got ability to hit the top? Even if he wins as easy as you like? I just couldnt be that dogmatic

Im with reet and aragon here. Fitness had nothing to do with it at all. Since when does fitness make a horse avoid standard mistakes?
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More often than you imagine.

How many mistakes do we make when we are feeling down or unfit? We lose concentration and mess up all the time.

If you are feeling great you handle every day chores much better. You can still make mistakes but it is far less likely.

Horses aren't any different take Kauto for example when he was beaten by Denman first thing Ruby said is he never felt like he normally does at any stage. He never looked like himself and made 6 crucial jumping errors in one race something he had never done in his life.

You bet being 100% right gives any horse an advantage and improves his chances of not making basic mistakes.

As far as Silviniaco Conti goes he was rated a massive 26lbs behind Long Run's best rating before he won the Charlie Hall.

If you believe Long Run's Gold Cup run was as good as he is now and that Silviniaco Conti deserved the 12lb hike the handicapper gave him for winning the Charlie Hall he's still 10lbs wrong with Long Run who is now rated 178 to his 168. IF!!! it were straight forward he'd be 1/3 to win this race but there's so many if's about Long Run the bookies are taking the chance he'll flop again hence the 11/8.

In their favour is the fact Long Run has run badly twice in both the Paddy Power and the Betfair Chase after his summer break.

Old man Cohen said it all. He reckons he looks a lot different this year, more like a fully grown chaser and nothing like the horse who was winning 2 1/2 mile hurdle races a few years back but whether that's good thing or a bad thing we won't know until he gets onto the track.

On paper he'll need to run a stinker for SC to have any chance of beating him
 
I think the idea that a horses fitness has much to do with mistakes in technique is very tenuous indeed. And not only that, NH doesnt really send them out that far below their best. Long Run must be "unfit" a lot of the time then

As far as Silviniaco Conti goes he was rated a massive 26lbs behind Long Run's best rating before he won the Charlie Hall.
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What are the chances of Long run running his best rating on sat? Regardless of fitness, not too great i would say. And what are the chances that SC will improve again from the bare form and rating he currently has? Pretty good i suspect. Hes at the right stage to do so

Im not saying that SC will certainly win this and i probably would like slightly longer odds, but i certainly couldnt be certain about LR
 
Flagship uberalles said:
Imperial Commander is a non runner, looks like he will never make it back.
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The injury is a non-displaced fracture of the inside splint bone on his right hind leg which basically means they won't be able to work him for six weeks but will keep him swimming to maintain fitness and hopefully he will be ready for the Argento Chase at Cheltenham on Festival Trials Day.
 
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