This is logic i dont get tanlic. Because sc won a "bad race" he hasnt got ability to hit the top? Even if he wins as easy as you like? I just couldnt be that dogmatic
Im with reet and aragon here. Fitness had nothing to do with it at all. Since when does fitness make a horse avoid standard mistakes?
More often than you imagine.
How many mistakes do we make when we are feeling down or unfit? We lose concentration and mess up all the time.
If you are feeling great you handle every day chores much better. You can still make mistakes but it is far less likely.
Horses aren't any different take Kauto for example when he was beaten by Denman first thing Ruby said is he never felt like he normally does at any stage. He never looked like himself and made 6 crucial jumping errors in one race something he had never done in his life.
You bet being 100% right gives any horse an advantage and improves his chances of not making basic mistakes.
As far as Silviniaco Conti goes he was rated a massive 26lbs behind Long Run's best rating before he won the Charlie Hall.
If you believe Long Run's Gold Cup run was as good as he is now and that Silviniaco Conti deserved the 12lb hike the handicapper gave him for winning the Charlie Hall he's still 10lbs wrong with Long Run who is now rated 178 to his 168. IF!!! it were straight forward he'd be 1/3 to win this race but there's so many if's about Long Run the bookies are taking the chance he'll flop again hence the 11/8.
In their favour is the fact Long Run has run badly twice in both the Paddy Power and the Betfair Chase after his summer break.
Old man Cohen said it all. He reckons he looks a lot different this year, more like a fully grown chaser and nothing like the horse who was winning 2 1/2 mile hurdle races a few years back but whether that's good thing or a bad thing we won't know until he gets onto the track.
On paper he'll need to run a stinker for SC to have any chance of beating him
