Betfair Chase

clivex said:
I think the idea that a horses fitness has much to do with mistakes in technique is very tenuous indeed. And not only that, NH doesnt really send them out that far below their best. Long Run must be "unfit" a lot of the time then



What are the chances of Long run running his best rating on sat? Regardless of fitness, not too great i would say. And what are the chances that SC will improve again from the bare form and rating he currently has? Pretty good i suspect. Hes at the right stage to do so

Im not saying that SC will certainly win this and i probably would like slightly longer odds, but i certainly couldn't be certain about LR
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Don't be such a softy and get of the fence man :lol:

Have to agree. Long Run coudn't be describd as smarter than your average bear and seems to have a screw lose at times but I doubt if S Conte would beat him even if he walked straight through one like he did last year. Actually he only needs to run up to the same mark as he did last year in this race to win it.

He's about 2.7 at the moment but by the time they jump 4 fences tomorrow and punters see him back on the job you'll be lucky to get 1.7 in running. If I were backing PN's horse I'd dutch on both and lay Long Run back for a profit ton the first circuit to reduce my liability. But I am sticking with Long Run as I reckon PN is dreaming if he thinks his is a Gold Cup horse.....he's not even close IMVHO
 
prince regent said:
he will never be the same as he was and i think its best they retire him
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They used to say they never come back but it applies a lot less these days. Nicky just won a hurlde race with Petite Robin and he was off for a very long time and it was thought at one time he'd never race again. IC has only run 19 times in his entire career which is a plus so I'd bet he'll be back and pick up a race or two along the way. Better trying and getting 5 start treatment than being left out in the pi$$ing rain all day.;)
 
Since being trained over here LR has needed his first run, two years ago only placed in the Paddy Power, last year second in this race. Contrast that with say Weird Al who has won first time out four times in the last five seasons.

Just saying like :ninja:
 
Cant see past Long Run tomorrow, hopefully he does the business seeing as i have quite a big stake double on him and Orfevre in the Japan Cup on Sunday!

Long Runs only threat is Silviniaco Conti in my opinion.

Just wish there was a better jockey on Long Runs back this season but thats a different matter!
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Since being trained over here LR has needed his first run, two years ago only placed in the Paddy Power, last year second in this race. Contrast that with say Weird Al who has won first time out four times in the last five seasons.

Just saying like :ninja:
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LRs form in placing was better..
 
Tanlic said:
They used to say they never come back but it applies a lot less these days. Nicky just won a hurlde race with Petite Robin and he was off for a very long time and it was thought at one time he'd never race again. IC has only run 19 times in his entire career which is a plus so I'd bet he'll be back and pick up a race or two along the way. Better trying and getting 5 start treatment than being left out in the pi$$ing rain all day.;)
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No he hasnt been, he raced 3 times last season...
 
Soft ground should be fine for Long Run and Henderson has to start him off somewhere. If not Haydock, the alternatives are now fairly thin, insofar as getting a prep into him are concerned (can't imagine them wanting to go to Kempton FTO).

I don't think he has a Hennessy entry (again, connections would not be keen to run anyway), but that race apart, there's not much else for him.

I think they'd probably have to drop him in trip, so maybe something like the Peterborough would be more likely than, say, the Durkan. But neither of them seem ideal or likely either.

I think they pretty-much have to run him, whether the really like it or not. I've a gut feel he might drift quite badly tomorrow, and be available at a tasty price come the off.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Soft ground should be fine for Long Run and Henderson has to start him off somewhere. If not Haydock, the alternatives are now fairly thin, insofar as getting a prep into him are concerned (can't imagine them wanting to go to Kempton FTO).

I don't think he has a Hennessy entry (again, connections would not be keen to run anyway), but that race apart, there's not much else for him.

I think they'd probably have to drop him in trip, so maybe something like the Peterborough would be more likely than, say, the Durkan. But neither of them seem ideal or likely either.

I think they pretty-much have to run him, whether the really like it or not. I've a gut feel he might drift quite badly tomorrow, and be available at a tasty price come the off.
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I think we will see 2/1 or bigger.
 
Ardross said:
I see Long Run is 6-4 favourite ! How can that be justified on last season's form ???

He should be 2-1 surely at the shortest .
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Too short, too slow and cannot jump well enough !

Silviniaco Conti jumped him silly and Walsh rode the socks off SWC and Scudamore who is not much better than SWC.
 
Looks like Long Run's future is behind him...

Hard to believe you'd leave much to work on for a £200k race and even allowing for Silviniaco Conti getting to dictate things for himself, you'd want to see more from Long Run.

I'm not sure SC ran much better than at Wetherby but with LR looking on a level short of Gold Cup class and a dearth of contenders elsewhere we might be in for a substandard renewal. Hope I'm wrong.
 
Easy to underrate the winner . He jumps really well , has gears for a stayer and is tactically versatile . Grand Crus looks gone at present - Bob's Worth is now the fascinating one for next week.
 
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The second-season chasers look good so but how many are realistic Gold Cup hopes? One of them could win almost by default.

I hope I'm wrong about the ability levels.
 
harry said:
Sir Des Champs, Flemenstar and Last Instalment could be Gold Cup class?
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First two are for sure. LI will have to prove he can return from a setback and don't forget Hidden Cyclone. He is progressing nicely and won from a good yardstick today. Wasn't 100% when SDC beat him last season.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Looks like Long Run's future is behind him...

Hard to believe you'd leave much to work on for a £200k race and even allowing for Silviniaco Conti getting to dictate things for himself, you'd want to see more from Long Run.
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I don't see he did much wrong. To say his future is behind him on the evidence of this bewilders me. He's reversed form with this year's Gold Cup runner-up and
found one too good (a match fit star in the making at that). There are of course others to consider for the Gold Cup, but I'd say that far from it being all over (at the age of seven) he's proved he can still trade it with the best of them in these sort of races. He'll certainly be winning good races this season.
 
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