Betfair Chase

Euronymous said:
In a good ground Gold Cup the horses in front wouldn't be slowing down enough for Bob's Worth to pass them. At the current prices First Lieutenant stands out at 20/1. He has close form tie-ins with SDC and is three times the price.
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I like First Lieutenant but I just cannot see him winning a Gold Cup whereas I could see it with Sir Des Champs who would equally appreciate better ground and he is a year younger, if Cue Card takes his chance then FL could end up in the Ryanair again.
 
Jakers said:
I like First Lieutenant but I just cannot see him winning a Gold Cup whereas I could see it with Sir Des Champs who would equally appreciate better ground and he is a year younger, if Cue Card takes his chance then FL could end up in the Ryanair again.
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yeah that's my thinking and i'd say it's factored into the price. gigginstown like to spread their runners around too.

he's a 50/50 shot to be in the race for me.
 
Jakers said:
Well done to the Cue Card backers your faith deservedly rewarded, he has definitely proved he gets 3m and is a horse of real class, but I still have reservations about the Gold Cup trip.

Reading EC1 and Reets posts plus the finishing position of the four proven 3m+ performers gives credence to thought that the official ground and trip at Haydock was bogus, and in turn it is way too early to start talking about 2013 Gold Cup finishing the first four home, there is enough doubt about yesterdays race and there is also the performance of SDC & Long Run at Punchestown in April.

Right now if I had to back one of Cue Card @ 8/1 or Bobs Worth @ 6/1 I would definitely go for SDC.
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Do you remember our Sir des Champs/Gold Cup debate last year Eamon? You were right and I was wrong and Sir des Champs has no problem with the trip, although Bob's Worth did see it out better.

It's fascinating isn't it though that Cue Card is so similar in profile at the same point we had the SDC debate. Maybe you should have a re-think and get into the same mindset you had about SDC before you write a Cue Card Gold Cup bid off! :-)
 
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I'll be the first to say it then... Cue Card will not get the trip in the GC. A bare 3m on a flat track is a world away from the undulating fun of Prestbury. I really hope FL goes for the GC but think that Mouse will be over ruled again. Bobs still the horse to beat imho.
 
I am not writing him off Paul I just have a doubt about the Gold Cup trip, he is a class act, on the back of his win on Saturday he must be a good thing for the King George.
 
It's interesting isn't it. Cue Card is no Kauto Star, but there are definite similarities in they way Cue Card's chasing career has progressed. Interestingly there is only a pound between their ratings at the same point that Kauto won his first Betfair Chase.

Many have marked Cue Card down as a non-stayer since his defeat in last years King George, but I had his defeat down to his jumping frailties. Something that also dogged Kauto for large parts of his career.

Kauto was also thought a non-stayer in Gold Cups until he proved otherwise. The truth is Denman saw it out better. Kauto won when either Denman wasn't there or had been a sick horse. Did that mean Kauto wasn't a worthy winner of his Gold Cups? Absolutley not and I'm confident nobody would say othersise.

And that for me is the dilemma with Cue Card. I think he'll get the trip around Prestbury fine. I just think a fit and healthy Bob's Worth sat just behind the pace may well get it better. In fact as I said to Jakers in a previous post, I see Cue Card and Sir des Champs as very similar horses in that they would need to get Bob's Worth off the bridle in order to win.

There is a big difference between Cue Card and Kauto however and that is breeding. Kauto should never have been a Gold Cup winner on breeding, whereas Cue Card's breeding shouts out stayer. Course shouldn't present a problem either as he won around Prestbury's undulations in the Champion Bumper beating another Gold Cup contender Al Ferof by a pretty comfortable 8 lengths. And he won the Ryanair last year pretty easily, so Id say if anything his best form is at Cheltenham.

The question still remains whether he'll see out 3miles 2furlongs and to my eye I feel he will if they don't change tactics and ride him as though he does. When he's out in front I've never seen any sign of him stopping. The only thing that tends to stop him is the odd fence. Ride him positively and Tizzard could just set Bob's Worth, who is more of a grinder, too much to do. Just like Haydock (where I'm prepared to conced BW most likely needed the race) Cue Card had him off the bridle and struggling. Don't forget Invictus did exactly that at Ascot prior to Bob's Worth Sun Alliance Chase win. I'd like to bet that the Tizzard's will easily figure out that is their best chance of winning and I'm more confident today than I was before Saturday.

I have some ante-post on Cue Card at much bigger than today's prices, and 8/1 strikes me as too short this far out for anyone who hasn't already played. I also have a nice prices on Al Ferof, and those two should be perfect trades up to the day itself. I will leave some riding come the day, and will probably have a saver bet on Bob's Worth on the morning of th erace, or mayne earlier if BW gets turned over before March and trades at bigger prices.

Trading aside though, I genuinely feel Cue Card could be the one, and I look forward to the banter with the 'non-stayer' brigade between now and March!

And I can't wait for the Kauto comparison response!!! :D
 
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The reason Maruco I thought Sir Des Champs would stay (did he stay he was beaten 7L?) was because he was versatile, he could switch off out the back or race up with the pace, your right that the Tizzard’s will not change tactics and it is interesting that you view that as a strength whereas I was looking at as a negative, I mean how many have won a Gold Cup leading from start to finish?

Sir Des Champs was also sound in the jumping dept his only major error was at Punchestown and DR was firmly to blame for that, and this is my other worry for Cue Card getting home, I think it is something like in 40% of his chases he has made a mistake or two – but to be fair he usually recovers well which could be a hint to his stamina.

Last March Bobs Worth was off the bridle turning in but in the end it was the pace set that ultimately won him the race but that was Long Run & Sir Des Champs taking each other on not Cue Card, who could easily have them all at it much earlier.

I never thought of Cue Card as a Gold Cup horse but he has now added a whole new & welcome dimension to the race, Ruby was on RUK yesterday and he had no worries about the 3m 2f either said on breeding he would get 5 miles, I am still not so sure but I don’t need to bet in every race so I may just watch and enjoy – I will probably back him in the King George and take it from there!

Do you know where Alan posts? I would love to see what he has to say about the going & distance at Haydock, Roy Waterhouse using his twitter account was shouting from the rooftops on Friday that the going & distances were very wrong.
 
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Some good posts but would slightly disagree on a couple of things.

It wasn't just the way the race panned out that won it for bw. There's a lot of overanalysing at times. He was simply the best horse on the day and the most ways the race would have unfolded, would have seen him prevail. It was a comfortable win

But on other hand he wasnt just "needing the race" on sat. Far from it. It's the third biggest stayers of the season and he's excellent first time out anyway. The ease and margin of defeat indicated much more than that
 
clivex said:
Some good posts but would slightly disagree on a couple of things.

It wasn't just the way the race panned out that won it for bw. There's a lot of overanalysing at times. He was simply the best horse on the day and the most ways the race would have unfolded, would have seen him prevail. It was a comfortable win

But on other hand he wasnt just "needing the race" on sat. Far from it. It's the third biggest stayers of the season and he's excellent first time out anyway. The ease and margin of defeat indicated much more than that
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I was also impressed at how BW had previously been able win on good and soft ground, so the state of the ground on Saturday wouldn't have been an issue. A left-handed track would have played to his strengths, too. So for Geraghty to say there was absolutely no cause for concern on Saturday, after a 40-length trouncing, did surprise me.
 
The ground on Saturday was an issue, inasmuch as it rode a good deal quicker than the advertised soft, therefore producing less of a stamina test than had seemed likely. It's also fairly certain that it was run over less than the advertised distance too, as though the course was widened slightly, the start was well forward of the normal start for 3 mile chases. Judged on the the proximity of the bulk of the field at the last down the back straight, and the way Cue Card quickened away from them, there was no great pace on either, which wouldn't have done Bobs Worth any favours.
Nicky Henderson was at pains before the race to point out that it wasn't a 'trial', and BW had won a Hennessy and a Gold Cup after long breaks anyway, so his needing the run hardly holds water. For mine, he just got badly outpaced, and that might be where Barry Geraghty is coming from, but it doesn't augur well for his chances in anything but an attritional CGC.
 
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But when BW won the Hennessy on soft, many were surprised. Previously he was seen as a Spring horse, who acted only on good ground. So to have put up such a performance at Newbury and in the Cheltenham GC (on soft), we might have thought that he was versatile ground wise.

Because of this, I don't think the ground was an issue on Saturday.
 
Jakers said:
Do you know where Alan posts? I would love to see what he has to say about the going & distance at Haydock, Roy Waterhouse using his twitter account was shouting from the rooftops on Friday that the going & distances were very wrong.
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I do and I can tell you he still looks in here Eamon. In fact only 10 minutes ago I was debating the cricket with him and suggested it's time he came out of his self-imposed Neigh/Talking Horses exile, and started posting here.

I agree though, even without Alun's imput that the race was run short of the advertised distance, and I take your point, but to my eye if it had been a furlong further he'd have won even further.

That said I'd be interested in Alun's take and estimate of the true distance. So if you don't want to post directly drop me a message please Alun.

Clive, I'm not sure about last seasons Gold Cup leaving a mark on Bob's
Worth. It's certainly possible but I still feel the combination of Henderson leaving plenty to work on and the stable form is a more likely explanation. I guess we won't get the answer to that until next time. I do agree that Bob's Worth was the best horse in the race last March though. Ruby has said Silviniaco Conti could have won, but certainly not to my eye. If Bob's Worth is fit and well I don't see how any of last years contenders beat him, and if he isn't Sir des Champs is next in the queue.

In my mind that leaves us with Cue Card, Al Ferof and Invictus as the possibles, 2 of whom have already beaten him, and in both cases by getting him off the bridle, which didn't happen at any point during last seasons Gold Cup. It doesn't take a genius to figure out how this seasons race will be run, and I feel confident the winner is amongst those three, with a distinct leaning towards Cue Card.
 
Its been that long I had forgotten it was a U not an A in Alun, would be welcome to know his thoughts on the Betfair, I also had to watch the Gold Cup again as i had this image in my head of Bobs Worth getting scrubbed along turning in but I had forgotten Silviniaco Conti falling hampered him after the third, my error.

As for Sir Des Champs I would not as easily dismiss him turning it round, he has it to do against Bobs Worth I admit but if we get 2012 going instead of 2013 I would expect him to go very close.

I agree with all five mentioned though Invictus will need to win well on Saturday of his mark if he is to play a hand still at 40/1 & 20/1 about Al Ferof there may be a bit of value.
 
Agreed about Alun - although I would make 2 stipulations. there should be a 1000 word limit on his posts and I still get to be his Dzerzhinsky when the revolution comes.

Re Bobs Worth - I would want to see him again before coming to any firm conclusions. to my mind he was never travelling particularly sweetly at any point in the race.
 
HawkWing said:
Long Run looks tailor made for the grand national.
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The GN comment by NH struck a chord with me on Saturday

My immediate thought was, "Ah, so that's the plan for this year."

Tell everybody before his seasonal debut that he's at least as good as ever (c178) and then engineer a few gubbings to get his mark down to the low 160s, then factor in the compression of the handicap for the race and he could be thrown in.

Ryan Price would have approved.
 
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Long Run has never been better than a 170 horse IMO. He has always been enormously overrated ever since winning a GC against a declining Denman, a convalescent Kauto Star and an injured Imperial Commander . All of whom at their best would have picked him up and carried him.
 
Great pic from today's Irish Field

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Ardross said:
Long Run has never been better than a 170 horse IMO. He has always been enormously overrated ever since winning a GC against a declining Denman, a convalescent Kauto Star and an injured Imperial Commander . All of whom at their best would have picked him up and carried him.
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been saying that for over 2 years..in fact i said 173 i think..but was told he was a mid 180's horse on a regular basis on the forum

that GC was very misleading...it looked amazing with who was there in the places..but they weren't the real ones due to your reasons above..imo..the visual got in the way of the true level of form shown that day..and the rating was given on the back of two giants putting in below par efforts
 
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I admire Alun from my own time on Neigh who tried to help me understand the calculation of speed ratings, I've been rueing the choice not to do so every flat season since about 2006! We had our arguments but if he's still involved in horse racing betting I wish him all the best. There's nothing wrong with lengthy posts, and forums like this seem much more friendly in general than the days when most people were strangers trying to communicate with each other, when forums had just arrived in many people's realities.
 
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