Diamond Geezer
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Turns out he isn't qualified
https://www.racingpost.com/news/lat...vourite-good-risk-at-all-not-qualified/531820
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Betfair Hurdle Sat Feb 12th 2022 Newbury
- Thread starter Diamond Geezer
- Start date
Turns out he isn't qualified
https://www.racingpost.com/news/lat...vourite-good-risk-at-all-not-qualified/531820
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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It's a race that's been kind to me so I don't really feel lost but your post reminds me of the story of the vampire bat that returns to the cave with blood all over its teeth, mouth, nose and face.
The other bats demand to know where he's been but he refuses to say. To cut a long story short, they pester him until he gives in and says, "I'll show you. Follow me."
So he leads them out of the cave, across the valley and into the middle of a forest. He turns to the others and says, "See that big tree over there?"
"Yes, yes, yes..." they answered in eager anticipation.
"Well, I fuckin didn't!"
The other bats demand to know where he's been but he refuses to say. To cut a long story short, they pester him until he gives in and says, "I'll show you. Follow me."
So he leads them out of the cave, across the valley and into the middle of a forest. He turns to the others and says, "See that big tree over there?"
"Yes, yes, yes..." they answered in eager anticipation.
"Well, I fuckin didn't!"
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Well there's a lesson for DO and any others unsuspecting punters who said Jonbon should run in the Betfair.:blink:
Mark or no mark he would needed to have run three times over hurdles before January 16 to qualify. See DG's post
NHF races do not count. To be fair it never clicked with me until now.
Mark or no mark he would needed to have run three times over hurdles before January 16 to qualify. See DG's post
NHF races do not count. To be fair it never clicked with me until now.
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Grasshopper
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The fact that Jonbon didn't get another run to qualify for the Betfair Hurdle, is what makes me think they must reckon he is out of the ordinary.......because it's very-much been JPs approach over recent years, to run his best 2m novice in the race.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
After a lot of delibeation and watching I am beginning to change mu mind or should I say make up my mind to thinking Jonbon is the better of the two.
If it was down to the way they both travel and jump I would without a moments hesitations point to Jonbon by a country mile.
It's that incredible turn of foot that Constitution Hill has that reminds me of Bula as a young horse.
However when it comes to the Supreme you have to ask who is most likelyto be right where he should be at the right time in the Supreme and that could make all the difference.
You also have to ask; Can he possibly be as good as Douvan who but for injury might well have outdone Sprinter Sacre and that is a question I keep asking myself as it's like asking lightning to strike twice.
It honestly doesn't matter to me from a finacial point of view having dutched them months ago as long as one of them wins the Supreme but as a spectator I would love Jonbon to go right to the very top.
If it was down to the way they both travel and jump I would without a moments hesitations point to Jonbon by a country mile.
It's that incredible turn of foot that Constitution Hill has that reminds me of Bula as a young horse.
However when it comes to the Supreme you have to ask who is most likelyto be right where he should be at the right time in the Supreme and that could make all the difference.
You also have to ask; Can he possibly be as good as Douvan who but for injury might well have outdone Sprinter Sacre and that is a question I keep asking myself as it's like asking lightning to strike twice.
It honestly doesn't matter to me from a finacial point of view having dutched them months ago as long as one of them wins the Supreme but as a spectator I would love Jonbon to go right to the very top.
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tiggers1972
Senior Jockey
Nail on the head Sir!
(That's not to say that the other could equally be out of the ordinary too).
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Tanlic
Senior Jockey
They certainly got everyone confused Tiggers which is great
I've been looking at the form and now I'm totally confused.
The last 12 runnings as resulted in 6..5yr olds and 6...6yr olds winning.
Is JP's BROOKFIELD BURG the one of 134.how about ARCTIC WARRIOR W.Mullins lurking on probably 133 (128 irish mark) 25/1.
One thing that never ceases to amaze me is trainers ruining a good mark for peanuts.
Nicky Henderson did this on saturday with FIRST STREET.rated 132, won a 6 grand race and has gone up 9 lb.
I dont know the plan for it but I've had a little bet on it at 16s.
The last 12 runnings as resulted in 6..5yr olds and 6...6yr olds winning.
Is JP's BROOKFIELD BURG the one of 134.how about ARCTIC WARRIOR W.Mullins lurking on probably 133 (128 irish mark) 25/1.
One thing that never ceases to amaze me is trainers ruining a good mark for peanuts.
Nicky Henderson did this on saturday with FIRST STREET.rated 132, won a 6 grand race and has gone up 9 lb.
I dont know the plan for it but I've had a little bet on it at 16s.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
ZIm happy with my pair but of the 2 JPR Uno makes most appeal., Don't ask me why but I have visions of him coming though to lead in the straight 3 out and leaving the rest standing...probably something to do with the side effects from the Tuberculosis medication I am still taking everday:lol:
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Desert Orchid
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Diamond Geezer
Gone But Not Forgotten
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Grasshopper
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I reckon Soaring Glory might end-up with top-weight here, which would mean DO's yoke probably doesn't need to win beforehand to get into the handicap (pretty sure enough will come out to get him in to the 24 anyway).
Desert Orchid
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Desert Orchid
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24
I reckon there's a chance there will be no cut-off as there might not be a max field.
If SFS stands his ground, quite a few will be out of the handicap and Natural History will be by a long way.
Desert Orchid
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Arctic Warrior is the one I look most out of kilter with.
He's off 135. I thought he be around 142 so I've taken 33/1 just in case I'm right.
Edit - I see Outsider gave it a mensh before.
He's off 135. I thought he be around 142 so I've taken 33/1 just in case I'm right.
Edit - I see Outsider gave it a mensh before.
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Desert Orchid
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JPROne on 130 so that last run hasn't realy impacted on his mark.
Not sure which yoke that is, GH. Surely not Natural History??
That said, if he did get into without being too far out of the weights I'd probably need to have some sickness insurance on him.
Edit
According to the RP site, Natural History, Lord Baddesley and Good Risk At All are already listed as non-runners.
To paraphrase Agatha Christie, and then there were 36...
Not sure which yoke that is, GH. Surely not Natural History??
That said, if he did get into without being too far out of the weights I'd probably need to have some sickness insurance on him.
Edit
According to the RP site, Natural History, Lord Baddesley and Good Risk At All are already listed as non-runners.
To paraphrase Agatha Christie, and then there were 36...
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Grasshopper
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My bad, DO - thought you had touted GRAA based on an earlier post from Roger.
I was expecting 133 D. The hcapper added 4lb to whiskey sour and 7lb to arctic warrior.
Desert Orchid
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This was my thinking:
I reckon, despite his 40/1 sp, Arctic Warrior would have finished roughly alongside Far Out last time in a good G2 bar that stumble and tumble at the last. Far Out's new Irish OR is 137. Add the usual average 6lbs that the UK handicapper tends to do to Irish ratings and you get 143. I had allowed a pound leeway.
And that's before factoring n the kind of improvement you can get from novices - look at what Soaring Glory did last year.
I imagine - and maybe it's just my imagination running riot - JP and Mullins will be pleasantly surprised to get in off 135 and if they hadn't been seriously aiming the horse at the race they might be now :lol:
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Slim
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7lb seems to be what the UK handicapper is giving the Irish hurdlers this season.
I see your way of thinking D. I took 33s as well.we will have to do a joint longshot post.
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