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Betfair Hurdle Sat Feb 12th 2022 Newbury

Desert Orchid said:
This was my thinking:

I reckon, despite his 40/1 sp, Arctic Warrior would have finished roughly alongside Far Out last time in a good G2 bar that stumble and tumble at the last. Far Out's new Irish OR is 137. Add the usual average 6lbs that the UK handicapper tends to do to Irish ratings and you get 143. I had allowed a pound leeway.

And that's before factoring n the kind of improvement you can get from novices - look at what Soaring Glory did last year.

I imagine - and maybe it's just my imagination running riot - JP and Mullins will be pleasantly surprised to get in off 135 and if they hadn't been seriously aiming the horse at the race they might be now :lol:
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I thought Arctic Warrior had run his race at the Lep, DO, and I'm not convinced he would have finished upsides Far Out and Grangee, tbh. He's also had himself on the floor twice in five hurdles outings - would JP go for a plot job with such an animal?

To be honest, there's a danger of looking past JP's obvious one in Broomfield Burg. He probably ran into a real handy one in the shape of Silent Revolution first time up (left a bit to do), and the third got to within 9L of Jonbon thereafter. He then failed to concede 25lbs in his first handicap outing (btn a length or so after travelling best), before hacking-up in another novice at Kempton over Christmas.

Lack of big-field experience is a slight concern, and there's a slight doubt about what he will find off the bridle, but otherwise he has a fair bit going for him, imo. A mark of 134 doesn't look at all punitive, and he is guaranteed to get into the race at #20 on the card. And JP does win this race with fancied horses.

It's not particularly adventurous, but I think I've just convinced myself to back him (Hills on their own at 10/1).
 
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Grasshopper said:
I thought he'd run his race at the Lep, tbh, and I'm not convinced he would have finished upsides Far Out and Grangee. He's also had himself on the floor twice in five hurdles outings - would JP go for a plot job with such an animal?

To be honest, there's a danger of looking past JP's obvious one in Broomfield Burg (though the lack of experience in a big field would be a slight concern).
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Yes you could be right Grassy,but it looks well hcapped and 33/1 is a nice price.
Obviously you can make cases for most and broomfield burg looks well hcapped.
 
Broomfield Burg is a contender and if it came up heavy maybe a horse like Metier could at least run a place.

The horse I have not given enough of a consideration to is Glory And Fortune. Only up 3lb for his Christmas Hurdle run and he will be still be several pound better off with Tritonic and Soaring Glory for that run.

I know Kempton is a different track to Newbury but I feel Glory and Fortune just took a bit of time to come to his best this season so I am considering Glory And Fortune for a bet.
 
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Grasshopper said:
I thought Arctic Warrior had run his race at the Lep, DO, and I'm not convinced he would have finished upsides Far Out and Grangee, tbh. He's also had himself on the floor twice in five hurdles outings - would JP go for a plot job with such an animal?
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He had been caught and overtaken but would he really have finished about 10 lengths behind Far Out with such a short run-in? I'm not so sure. To balance that, though, he raced in second and the leader, a Blackmore/HdB 9/4f, had shot its bolt by two out. There has to be a case for marking AW's performance back up a wee bit. And I made the mistake of saying it was a G2. It was a G1, worth over 100k. It was no ordinary midden race.

I plan to check those sectionals in due course.


Grasshopper said:
To be honest, there's a danger of looking past JP's obvious one in Broomfield Burg. He probably ran into a real handy one in the shape of Silent Revolution first time up (left a bit to do), and the third got to within 9L of Jonbon thereafter. He then failed to concede 25lbs in his first handicap outing (btn a length or so after travelling best), before hacking-up in another novice at Kempton over Christmas.
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I'm not looking past it. It's 10/1 and I don't bet 10/1 in handicaps of this nature this far out ante-post. I totally respect the horse and its place in the market. I just want to get my own handle on the form before taking such 'short' odds.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I plan to check those sectionals in due course.
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The G1 got into an early 10 length lead over the following handicap and gradually increased it until the last. That's just based on running the two races side by side but I hope to dig deeper soon. The overall bare time performance of the G1 was over 38lbs above the handicap, the winner of which has a new rating of 135.

While those figures can't be taken literally, they do point to the G1 having been very truly run.
 
Desert Orchid said:
He had been caught and overtaken but would he really have finished about 10 lengths behind Far Out with such a short run-in? I'm not so sure. To balance that, though, he raced in second and the leader, a Blackmore/HdB 9/4f, had shot its bolt by two out. There has to be a case for marking AW's performance back up a wee bit. And I made the mistake of saying it was a G2. It was a G1, worth over 100k. It was no ordinary midden race.

I plan to check those sectionals in due course.




I'm not looking past it. It's 10/1 and I don't bet 10/1 in handicaps of this nature this far out ante-post. I totally respect the horse and its place in the market. I just want to get my own handle on the form before taking such 'short' odds.
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That DeBrom horse ran no race at all. Their horses were running rancid at the time.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm not looking past it. It's 10/1 and I don't bet 10/1 in handicaps of this nature this far out ante-post. I totally respect the horse and its place in the market. I just want to get my own handle on the form before taking such 'short' odds.
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Fair enough, DO......and your approach in these big handicaps is pretty-much established by now.

I would contest BB is a short-price though. Double figures seems perfectly fine to me, considering he doesn't need any to come out, the owner often targets the race with ones of his decent novices, and he hasn't been minced by the handicapper,. He seems destined to shorten-up prior to the race, the way I read things.

:thumbsup:
 
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Yes, but he also needs to get there.

(And what if his entry is to keep attention off other possibles? :lol:)
 
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To be honest, there's a danger of looking past JP's obvious one in Broomfield Burg. He probably ran into a real handy one in the shape of Silent Revolution first time up (left a bit to do), and the third got to within 9L of Jonbon thereafter. He then failed to concede 25lbs in his first handicap outing (btn a length or so after travelling best), before hacking-up in another novice at Kempton over

It's not particularly adventurous, but I think I've just convinced myself to back him (Hills on their own at 10/1).[/QUOTE]

And BB was giving it weight which makes its form even better. 10s is a decent price Grassy.
 
Metier raised 7lbs for Friday so will be 2lbs well in under his 5lbs penalty (assuming he runs).

I took 25/1 when the weights came out so won't complain.
 
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I totally respect them but, as I've said before, at this stage I'm happy to be looking off the radar for value.

With that in mind, I've taken 66/1 Lucky One for the sake of getting it onside.

I have no idea if the Skeltons plan to aim it at the race and there is no encouragement in its form this season but it went up to 143 for giving Natural History 6lbs and a 20-length beating when with Nicholls last season. It then disappointed at Kelso but was running well at Aintree when taking a tumble. The Sullivans (whom I find difficult to fathom) then transferred it to Skelton for this season.

Two awful runs for the new yard do not bode well but they've seen the horse drop fully 16lbs. It may be that the wide-margin win soured the horse but Skelton is not averse to a long-term plot.

It may be that he needs the deep ground he got at Wincanton and maybe that race just fell apart but at 66/1 a small bet doesn't seem like too much of a risk.
 
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I thought Washington sort of franked the Jpr one form from Cheltenham on Sunday. He was travelling all over his field before making a race losing mistake at the second last.
 
Euronymous said:
I thought Washington sort of franked the Jpr one form from Cheltenham on Sunday. He was travelling all over his field before making a race losing mistake at the second last.
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I wasn't aware of that race so checked it. It looks to me like you might be right but, on my figures, it would improve Jpr One's rating only by about 3 or 4 pounds. Better than not franking it, though.
 
Paul Nicholls has only left Knappers Hill in the race but he's not given him any Cheltenham novice entry. Hard to know what to make of that.
 
Knows he can't win Supreme, and will be saving him for Top Novices at Aintree. Horse is potentially nicely handicapped off 135.
 
Knappers Hill has a Supreme entry.

He was also listed as a 'possible' entry at the RP site for the Ballymore and Albert Bartlett until todays entries were published.
 

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