Betfair Hurdle

Novices that have performed well in the Betfair have a decent record of at least going close in the Supreme. Clearly down to the experience gained in a big field 2m hurdle run at a proper pace as opposed to many of the 5-6 runners trials races.

It's not hard to see him being pushed along coming down the hill but picking them off after the turn. The question is just how many will he pick off.
 
Damn my lack of interest in social media haha. I dare say they would know the horse best but the amount of times I've heard a trainer say a horse will be better on such and such ground and its turned out not to be. I think those 2 runs on Heavy ground are great runs but until I see it with my own eyes I won't believe he'll be better on a faster surface well not at 2 miles at least. If he does go to the supreme then we'll find out. I haven't really looked at his rating and my memory tends to fail me with regards what horses are generally rated after a Supreme win but I'm think low 150's usually. Off the top of my head I'd go for 149 on Saturdays performance so anything better than that and he'd be right in the mix.

It would be nice to see a small yard land a punch and as I have no serious interest in the race I'll cheer it on to get the better of the bigger operations horses.
 
He's just won off 141 and will probably go up to near 150. MTOY won the Betfair, effectively in a common canter off 149 before just failing in the Supreme but that wasn't through lack of ability.
 
Danny - much of it is conjecture and blind hope - punters and connections alike - particularly given that he is a novice. But he does look exciting, and there's no way I am having a word said against him.
 
If you're into stats you may like to remember one for next year and that is that six of the last seven winners had not previously run in a handicap, there have not been many runners that satisfy the criteria either, for instance this year there were only four.
 
TheBear said:
Elliott said exactly the opposite of that about Getabird. He was keen to avoid him.


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Haha Damn those Irish accents I could of swore he said wouldn't,not would be scared of him haha that's that theory gone up in smoke.
 
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I've done another rough sectional dekko for Newbury on Saturday for the hurdles course. There were three races over the CD of the Betfair Hurdle. All timings start from the site of the first hurdle.

The novices' race was the slowest from H1 to H2 at 58s. The Betfair was 52s (about 33 lengths faster) and the NHF matched the Betfair so although they appeared to go fast early they maybe didn't. Either that or they've gone very fast in the bumper. I think it's much more likely the novices just went steadily.

From H2 to H3: the novices took 15s, the Bf 13s and the NHF 14s so the Bf field have moved five lengths ahead with the novices losing another five lengths.

From H3 to H4: the two later races both took 20s, the novices 21s so they've lost another five lengths.

From H4 to H5: the Bf maintained its pace, the NHF lost a second, the novices covered it in the same time as the NHFs.

From H5 to H6 (the long run round from the back straight to the home straight): the novices took 63s, the Bf 64 (so the pace is starting to tell) and the NHF 62s, so the bumper horses have picked up a bit.

H6 to H7: The novices and NHF both took 23s but the Bf took 25s, losing over ten lengths to the lesser horses.

H7 to H8: the novices have really quickened, covering it in 20s, fully 3s (16 lengths?) faster than the Bf and 2s faster than the NHFs.

H8 to WP: the novice winner has shot clear in 16s, both the Bf and NHF took 17s (despite the latter winner going clear too).

It looks like a slower first half of the race has allowed the novice winner to power home but still three seconds (a good 15 lengths) behind Kalashnikov at the line but the bumper winner has covered the C&D the distance faster again. There's obviously no hurdles to negotiate so the race should be faster but by how much?

I reckon the bumper winner must be good but on the same superficial basis of calculation, not in the same league as Blackbow and Rhinestone.
 
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Just looking at that again, it means the novices have covered the stage from three out to the line roughly 33 lengths ahead of Kalshnikov. The NHFs have done it about 16 lengths faster than Kalashnikov.

Of course, the Bf was nearly 50 lengths faster than the novices up to three out and still about 16 lengths in front at the line. But the NHFs pretty much matched the Bf the whole way before leaving it about 16 lengths behind in the final stages.

Clearly the closing stages of the Betfair was a matter of who was slowing down the least.
 
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Len will be happy to hear that as it's a good guide to Kalashnikov's chance in the Supreme Maurice. They usually go a very good pace at Cheltenham and that suggests Kalashnikov can not only lay up with the likely pace, but also that he'll also be doing his best work at the end of the race, which is the perfect profile for a genuine contender.
 
Kalashnikov up 13lbs to 154.

That gives an indication of where Irish Roe should have finished. She was 11lbs well in. On paper she should have been second, assuming no further progress from her last run. Unfortunately, the race was run in treacle and not on paper.

Kalshnikov, on that new rating, could well be placed in whatever race he runs in at the festival.

Or he might do an Irish Roe.
 
Irish Roe's OR before heading into the race on Saturday was based on a mares only conditions event - her Donny win prior to that didn't entitle he to be 145 rated.

There has to be a strong possibility that flattered her - in a similar, but admittedly far lesser way to the reaction around Bristol De Mai after Haydock. There were injury rumors about Maria's Benefit not long after the race and who's to say that didn't affect her performance.

I'd be much more inclined to take Kalashnikov's new rating at face value on the basis that this is traditionally one of, if not the, most competitive handicaps of the season and this year's renewal looked a very good one going into it.

I'd normally apply restraint to allow for the ground conditions but on both his style of running in Saturday's race and the stable's continued insistence that he'll be better on good ground I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

What is not in question is, be it the going slowing down the others or his make-up/attitude, he's very strong at the finish and if he can lay up with the pace in the Supreme on better ground then he'll be bang there at the finish.
 
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wilsonl said:
Irish Roe's OR before heading into the race on Saturday was based on a mares only conditions event - her Donny win prior to that didn't entitle he to be 145 rated.

There has to be a strong possibility that flattered her - in a similar, but admittedly far lesser way to the reaction around Bristol De Mai after Haydock. There were injury rumors about Maria's Benefit not long after the race and who's to say that didn't affect her performance.
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I'm not sure if the handicapper - I haven't got round to checking the blog page - took Maria's Benefit as the sole line of form in arriving at IR's new mark. I know I didn't. I rated IR on lines back to the third (in particular) and the other beaten horses, and it was a very true-run race. I have MB running a few pounds below form on the day on that basis.

Even allowing for IR's new rating being plain wrong, she still ran miles below her previous, upwardly-mobile form.

I'm prepared simply to put a line through Saturday's run and say that for whatever reason - ground, bounce, etc - she was never looking competitive from early in the race.

I fully expect her to show, in time, that she should have been second at worst in the Betfair. Not that second would have done me a blind bit of good as I'd backed her win only.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Kalashnikov up 13lbs to 154.

That gives an indication of where Irish Roe should have finished. She was 11lbs well in. On paper she should have been second, assuming no further progress from her last run. Unfortunately, the race was run in treacle and not on paper.

Kalshnikov, on that new rating, could well be placed in whatever race he runs in at the festival.

Or he might do an Irish Roe.
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154 is Vautour, Douvan, Altior territory.
 
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Len Madeiros said:
154 is Vautour, Douvan, Altior territory.
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Was just thinking that Len. All 3 were rated 155 going into the supreme and after winning it Altior and Douvan both went up to 160, with Vautour going up to 158.

Conversely, MTOY went into his supreme rated 162 after his betfair hurdle win and was dropped to 158 after the Supreme. Maybe there's something in that too, in that due to the competitiveness of the Betfair, there's a tendency to over rate a novice?
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I'm not sure if the handicapper - I haven't got round to checking the blog page - took Maria's Benefit as the sole line of form in arriving at IR's new mark. I know I didn't. I rated IR on lines back to the third (in particular) and the other beaten horses, and it was a very true-run race. I have MB running a few pounds below form on the day on that basis.

Even allowing for IR's new rating being plain wrong, she still ran miles below her previous, upwardly-mobile form.

I'm prepared simply to put a line through Saturday's run and say that for whatever reason - ground, bounce, etc - she was never looking competitive from early in the race.

I fully expect her to show, in time, that she should have been second at worst in the Betfair. Not that second would have done me a blind bit of good as I'd backed her win only.
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I think time will tell that a few ran well below form for a number of reasons Dessie, not least the ground and Irish Roe did look nothing like the horse at Doncaster and she normally travels much better in her races.

But if her and Verdana Blue were to meet again on the same terms on better ground and despite the handicapper having Irish Roe 11lb well, in I'm not sure I'd back her to beat the Hendo mare.
 
Not sure what you're asking, Len?

It looks pretty clear that MTOY went up to 162 for winning the Betfair so that was his OR when he ran in the Supreme, which was a very high class renewal and his subsequent 15-lengths win at Aintree backs it up.
 
Maybe novices are overrated when posting decent performances in this race but while Get Me Out of Here (150 post Newbury) and MTOY (162) were both beaten in the Supreme, both were arguably unfortunate and went mightily close.

In between those two, Recession Proof had also won at Newbury as a novice and ran in the Supreme off a comparatively lowly 137 yet while he could only manage 5th at Cheltenham, that was behind Al Ferof, Spirit Son, Sprinter and Cue Card and he wasn't beaten far, with 7 lengths back to the rest.

Basically, it takes a fairly high class novice to win this race from a mark of 141. Other novices have won it and performed badly at Cheltenham, such as Splash of Ginge but he went to Newbury running off 127 taking the jockey's claim into account.
 
I find that a ridiculously huge rise considering half the field wouldn't have gone on the ground and anything that run on the front end fell in a heap. He seems to have rated it through Spirit of the games and that seems dicey seen as Spiritofthegames has earned his own rating over longer trips and was having his first try over 2 mile. That said though the figures do seem to back it up.
 
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