Betting Strategy - Cheltenham 2022

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Len Madeiros

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For the last two years, I’ve had a bit more money to throw at my selections. Obviously lockdown and wfh has enabled me to build up the staking pot; but I have also forsaken the £3 ew acca as the short-cut to riches, preferring now to deal in singles and Trixies/Yankees. The latter two are far more likely to return at least some money, and by choosing at least 4/5 horses in the handicaps, I’ve returned a small profit overall.

Cheltenham is the meeting where I splurge, and the idea that I could lose £500 in a week isn’t very appealing. I think because of that, I’ve have bet less selectively and have covered myself. It feels a bit like “gambling by numbers”, but I feel more comfortable with this strategy: I’m almost certain to get some money back overall. Highlights were Commander of Fleet and Global Citizen (thank you, DO!), but I also had Banbridge and some Yankees return decent money. And I still know that all it takes is one Yankee to come in to turn an average Cheltenham into a great Cheltenham.

So, the question, I suppose, is whether people’s Cheltenham betting habits have changed recently; and what strategy works best for you?
 
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I'm seriously thinking of giving up ante-post betting for next year's festival.

Edwardstone covered the big ante-post bets but all the smaller EW longshots, with the exception of [the not so small] Zanahiyr at 33/1 went south although the place return covered quite a few of them. Royale Pagaille might have got me decent place returns had he not made that mistake four out.

I regret not laying off American Mike (7/1) when it was favourite just before FV hit the scene but I would say I still fancied the other biggies on the day.
 
Good point, DO. It’s only the last two years that I have joined in the ante-post party - to absolutely no avail. The problem is that I have found it too easy to dabble because I have a couple of betting apps. The apps are great for extra places and BOG (massive help with the handicaps), but I have to instil some discipline where I don’t click on the betting app because of what I’ve read on here a month before Cheltenham.
 
Avoid the bets the bookies try to push you towards I say. It’s why drifters are generally bad news - you’re not getting better “value” but succumbing to bookies tempting you to jump off a cliff when they know something you don’t.

For serious bets I’m very much a win only type and I much prefer to protect with another horse in the race rather than EW. Don’t much like Ante-post unless you are privy to a plot like Mullins with Gaelic Warrior and State Man since you can’t get a price on the day. Don’t like multiples either for serious bets (again, avoid what the bookies push), but I do have them and EW for fun bets .
 
In all the years I can remember there's always one or two you get wrong when backing ante post.

Last Year it was Envoi Allen this year it was Galopin and Shiskin messed up my treble.

That said I tend to back big on singles in the best races and leave handicaps alone.

I did back Banbridge at 20/1 and got a decent lift but only because I was out to recover my losses on Galopin Des Champs.

I am very Anti backing horses like Tommy's Oscar and My Mate Mozzie at huge prices like DO was doing.

It's amazing how many bets you end up having on complete rags just to get one big priced winner and 9 times out of 10 you only had 2 quid ew on the one that wone.

Don't get me wrong Do has put up some real good selections but for me he just backs way too many.

I tend not to back too many savers...because what you are doing is backing something you don't really fancy.

A clever bet at the festival is back 3 horses per group and calculate how much you stand to lose if only one wins.

If you do it properly in singles and doubles and a small treble you are pretty safe unless your the worst judge in the country.

Two winners gives you a decent lift 3 and its like all your birthdays have come at once and they don't have to be huge prices.
 
There always has to be flexibility for exceptions but, by and large, I don't build a book, I don't do cash out and I don't use the exchanges so my personal guidelines have evolved to:

- only use free bets or NRNB. This year, I didn't lose any cash to Mullins bingo or injuries.
- think about how free bets are used rather than blow them on long shots. They might be individually small but can accumulate nicely.
- don't touch the handicaps until weights are announced.
- don't bet in the 10 days leading up to the Festival. So many last minute bookie offers these days.
- ignore preview nights. Just an industry gravy train these days.

Have to stress that I'm not recommending this approach. It's just what works for me as a small-time and occasional punter.
 
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Ante-post betting has been fairly kind to me for many years but not so good this year. Only Honeysuckle and Allaho provided any returns with a number not making it eg Buzz, Sporting John, Blazing Khal

Bravemansgame made it to the fez (and in the race I’d backed him for!) only to be withdrawn shortly before the race. This was the right call btw and would have been whether they’d watered or not

Anyway the damage was limited (apart from opportunity cost) as I’d used accumulated free bets to place many of my AP wagers

I don’t intend to let poor results this year put me off AP betting though

Archie’s rules above also apply to me for the most part although I have lost cash to injuries


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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Ante Post is a real grind but I ended up with:

Dysart Dynamo/Sir G 25/1
Sir Gerhard 9/2
Gaelic Warrior 9/2 4/1
Ontheropes 16/1 (NR when 8/1)
Frontal Assault 15/2
Amarillo Sky 12/1
Andy Dufresne 14/1 (ouch)
State Man 7/1
Adamantly Chosen 12/1
Allaho 10/11

I might be forgetting one or two but that was a lot of my book including all sorts of multis where Gaelic Warrior would have got me the sweep. It's well worth getting involved but it's very tedious work.
 
From March until the end of the year I try and get nice prices about horses I like. By the end of 2021 I had

Constitution Hill 8/1 taken after his first run
Tellmesomethinggirl 14/1
Journey with Me 16/1
Bravemansgame 20/1
Thyme Hill 8/1
Galvin 20/1
Elimay 10/1

Then from January any horse in the sub 4/1 range I like on a given day's racing I double with the fancies above or their chief dangers. So, Jeremy's Flame (twice) Pic D'orhy, Brewinupastorm, Teahuupoo, The Devilscoachman, Empire Steel - these horses were all winners who either enhanced a price I already had or protected my position in the race.

Perfect example of what I look for is to target a race that aint gonna be that competitive, where the horse I like had one, maybe two dangers at most - the Ballymore and Mares Chase the examples this year. Sir Gerhard imo was the only danger to a big pay out on Journey with Me so naturally I had him onside for a nice profit. Same with Mount Ida in the Mares Chase (that nearly went very wrong though)
 
I say every year I'm not getting involved a/p and every year I get tempted.most of mine didnt run this year but of the ones that did I did have the jam man 33s,shantreusse 66s,and they both got well beat.i did have 25s on ontheropes.
And of course I had that treble I cant even remember putting on.honeysuckle 3s allaho 5s and Flooring porter 6s.

Besides that treble and an inspirational bet on al plus tard 2 mins to off I made a decent profit without having a winner.
My best bet of the week Mister coffey was 2nd and him and first street 2nd was in plenty of multiples.

I always 'splurge' I like that word Len,and my view as always been,people spend money on holidays,I dont go on holidays so I save the money for 1 week of Cheltenham and dont worry about losing.
I dont bet big but tend to go a bit mad at Cheltenham but I cant bring myself to have a good go on one like I should .
 
I totally get that about holidays, Outsider! The last two Christmases have been washouts too, so I’ve indulged myself at Cheltenham instead.

Thanks for your insightful responses, all. AP betting isn’t for me, so I’ll steer clear in future (if at all possible).
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm seriously thinking of giving up ante-post betting for next year's festival.
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I should point out that I already have a couple of ante-post punts logged for the 2023 festival but they were done a while back.

Gold Cup - Minella Indo 33/1 (in anticipation of his going at least very close this year) & Vanillier 50/1 (looking quite silly now)
 
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My anti post betting was an absolute disgrace in terms of winners and I got bailed out by State Man 12/1 and Elimay 7s down. State Man could have easily gone Martin Pipe an all which would have left a sore one.
Also had Vauban 20s, which tbh I only took listening to some opinions of punters on Twitter who I think know their onions.

Also had The Nice Guy who went off same price I backed it. I had some nice bets and beat SP, but is that much use if they’re still losers?

Was genuinely in the mindset of giving up AP betting going into the Friday. Maybe it was just an unlucky year. Galopin going Marsh screwed a fair few multis. As did Ferny and Blazing Khal getting injured.
 
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Euronymous said:
From March until the end of the year I try and get nice prices about horses I like. By the end of 2021 I had

Constitution Hill 8/1 taken after his first run
Tellmesomethinggirl 14/1
Journey with Me 16/1
Bravemansgame 20/1
Thyme Hill 8/1
Galvin 20/1
Elimay 10/1

Then from January any horse in the sub 4/1 range I like on a given day's racing I double with the fancies above or their chief dangers. So, Jeremy's Flame (twice) Pic D'orhy, Brewinupastorm, Teahuupoo, The Devilscoachman, Empire Steel - these horses were all winners who either enhanced a price I already had or protected my position in the race.

Perfect example of what I look for is to target a race that aint gonna be that competitive, where the horse I like had one, maybe two dangers at most - the Ballymore and Mares Chase the examples this year. Sir Gerhard imo was the only danger to a big pay out on Journey with Me so naturally I had him onside for a nice profit. Same with Mount Ida in the Mares Chase (that nearly went very wrong though)
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With that strategy, would you rather not just collect on the day of the said, sub 4/1 horse?

Something Ive seen a few people do now, but it’d do my tits in the bet didn’t even make it to the festival.
 
Tanlic said:
Can we have the names of the punters who gave you Vauban at 20's DJ I wanna be their friend:lol:
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Was actually put up at 25s after defeat to Pied Piper. I try to be clever on Twitter, follow a judge, and follow who the judges follow and interact with. Can’t go to far wrong I dont think.

Im not the best judge of racing or form books, but I think Im decent at telling who know their onions or not.
 
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And don’t forget it was only Ferny Hollow and Blazing Khai of the fancied runners that missed this festival. Usually there are far more injured horses that knacker AP bets; that’s without what Mullins does with his last-minute switches.
 
Double J said:
Was actually put up at 25s after defeat to Pied Piper. I try to be clever on Twitter, follow a judge, and follow who the judges follow and interact with. Can’t go to far wrong I dont think.

Im not the best judge of racing or form books, but I think Im decent at telling who know their onions or not.
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Just stay away from The SHROODS. I've never seen so many bad bets shorten up ante post than this year. It's pure war with so many people over analysing everything.
 
I noted one pundit on a preveiw saying no matter which horse won the Supreme the bookies were the real winners they had raken so much money at short prices...but what can you do...too bad if you took 5/2 and your selection ended up at 4/1 I think all 4 were fav at one time or another or near enough....I hate nrnb just no value nowadays
 
Tanlic said:
I noted one pundit on a preveiw saying no matter which horse won the Supreme the bookies were the real winners they had raken so much money at short prices...but what can you do...too bad if you took 5/2 and your selection ended up at 4/1 I think all 4 were fav at one time or another or near enough....I hate nrnb just no value nowadays
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Without wanting to go over the top, whoever said that is an idiot. They will have taken 95% of the turnover when Constitution Hill was fav. They lost on the race.
 
Slim said:
Just stay away from The SHROODS. I've never seen so many bad bets shorten up ante post than this year. It's pure war with so many people over analysing everything.
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I actually stumbled on to an account after you interacted with him. 95% of the time posts about jungle music and getting stoned, but the 5% of the time he posts about racing its worth following :lol: that was the account that gave Vauban 25s.

Tell who’s shrood or not. I unfollowed a couple that thought Shan Blue was good bet. I dont need form books inside out to know thats a honkingly bad bet.
 
Double J said:
I actually stumbled on to an account after you interacted with him. 95% of the time posts about jungle music and getting stoned, but the 5% of the time he posts about racing its worth following :lol: that was the account that gave Vauban 25s.

Tell who’s shrood or not. I unfollowed a couple that thought Shan Blue was good bet. I dont need form books inside out to know thats a honkingly bad bet.
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I was well aware it was him. He knows his stuff.
 
Double J said:
With that strategy, would you rather not just collect on the day of the said, sub 4/1 horse?

Something Ive seen a few people do now, but it’d do my tits in the bet didn’t even make it to the festival.
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No. Sub 4/1 shots flat and jumps are not profit leaders for me.
 
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