Breeders Cup 2015

Diamond Geezer

Diamond Geezer

Gone But Not Forgotten
Joined
May 2, 2003
Messages
13,884
Golden Horn has been drawn in stall one for the Breeders' Cup Turf at Keeneland on Saturday.


Found has been berthed in gate nine.


Heavy rain forecast over next couple of days, going currently Good.
 
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Mile looks interesting. Esoterique and Make Believe look too short, might dutch Mshawish and Karakontie, both at double figures.
 
Euronymous said:
Mile looks interesting. Esoterique and Make Believe look too short, might dutch Mshawish and Karakontie, both at double figures.
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I make Tepin a bet in this at 10/1 or better. Granted, a filly up against (mostly) the boys, but, honestly, she ran a damn fine race lto in the "First Lady" at this track when winning by seven lengths. Softish will suit her, and a liking for the kinda unique turf of Keeneland has to be an advantage.

For watching fun, will probably do an exotic exacta combination using the four Euro hosses. :)
 
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Looking to oppose Legatissimo who fits the profile of an AOB blowout candidate this time of year given her age, sex and how long she's been in training. I was originally keen on Miss France and initially skated over Bawina simply because the ride she got in the Sun Chariot caused me a fair amount of heartburn. Peslier takes over now and 16/1 is large. If the fav blows out (better than even chance surely) this will not take as much winning as a European Group 1 and her run in the Jean Romanet confirms she stays 10f and goes on soft.
 
Not sure that I would have the cojones to lay Legatissimo for a 50/50 reward-to-risk return at Evens.
But I have no problem opposing her with either Secret Gesture or Dacita at 12/1 each, for smallish stakes.
Maybe I'm getting too wrapped up with the Tepin formline, but I can't help thinking Dacita's beating her by a nose at Saratoga in her first race in the U.S. is worthy, and Secret Gesture's run in the Beverly D last month as well as her 2 length defeat in this race last year entitles her to consideration.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Beholder will miss the Classic having bled after working.
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That takes most of the betting value out of the race.
As it was (whilst Beholder was still a declared), Pharoah was going to be overbet by our U.S. cousins anyway. But now, he'll be looked at as a "stone-cold" and will be bet to prohibitive odds-on. There would have been decent money for Beholder, but her withdrawal makes a hole in the market.

Any Place-only value about Tonalist is also severely diluted. :(

This is developing into a poor enough BC from a betting point of view.
 
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This is a massive blow for the race, not only because she was there with an excellent chance, but also because she was the one to put pressure on the early lead to AP.
There are many closers in the race and not many leaders and other than Smooth Roller, it is hard to see anybody challenging the Triple Crown winner for the lead, which it is very important at Keeneland, specially off a favourable stall.
I still going to oppose him though, hoping he is over the top a bit. Older horses like Honor Code and Tonalist are very good and Keen Ice is improving all the time as his pedigree suggests.
 
Aughex said:
One less for Gleneagles to beat. Hopefully he does the job as I have my biggest bet this year on him following the ol` saying the more value the bigger the bet.
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I hope he goes out there and wins. However I don't share your enthusiasm?
 
Frankel said:
I hope he goes out there and wins. However I don't share your enthusiasm?
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Not many do, hence the price. As for my reasoning, he faces dirt horses which I don't rate highly at all. Main rival is an horse who won 3 races in less than 2 months against his 3yo's peers and by completing that treble he was considered unbeatable until he got beat by the same 3yo who in the meantime improved but he's(Keen Ice) now overlooked because he beat the treble winner in a race dubbed 'graveyard of champions' as if it was a fluke.

It wasn't a fluke and his price offers value but it doesn't match the incredible value of Gleneagles odds who hadn't had the chance of showing his true colours with AOB shipping him from race to race without competing in them until he was forced to give him a prep run on soft ground in the QE2 where the slow pace early on produced a result which won't be taken on face value by any form reader but the bookies were quick to drop him to 16/1 in the AP market for the BCC, amazing value which deserved a large bet(of the year for me) on.
 
Aughex said:
Not many do, hence the price. As for my reasoning, he faces dirt horses which I don't rate highly at all. Main rival is an horse who won 3 races in less than 2 months against his 3yo's peers and by completing that treble he was considered unbeatable until he got beat by the same 3yo who in the meantime improved but he's(Keen Ice) now overlooked because he beat the treble winner in a race dubbed 'graveyard of champions' as if it was a fluke.

It wasn't a fluke and his price offers value but it doesn't match the incredible value of Gleneagles odds who hadn't had the chance of showing his true colours with AOB shipping him from race to race without competing in them until he was forced to give him a prep run on soft ground in the QE2 where the slow pace early on produced a result which won't be taken on face value by any form reader but the bookies were quick to drop him to 16/1 in the AP market for the BCC, amazing value which deserved a large bet(of the year for me) on.
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I doubt anyone would pay much attention to his QE11 run given some reasons you have mentioned.
However, he has to prove himself on the surface which has had a fair bit of rain. That would be of huge concern to me.

I hope my concerns are unfounded and he hoses up. In the process you can push your wheelbarrow to the bank. :cool:
 
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Thanks! I think AOB knows why he targeted him for this race ever since he won the St.JP so hopefully he's right and he'll act well on dirt.
 
Aughex said:
As for my reasoning, he faces dirt horses which I don't rate highly at all.
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:blink:

Maybe you don't, which is fair enough, ................ but they are the best Dirt horses in America.


Main rival is an horse who won 3 races in less than 2 months against his 3yo's peers
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Aye, the three races that comprised the Triple Crown, and which hadn't been achieved for the previous 37 years. :)
You underestimate American Pharoah at your peril. He's one of the great ones. Not saying he is a BC certainty, and I don't know if the Travers at Saratoga bottomed him out, but .......................

You're keen on Gleneagles, best of luck with it. Hoss has never run at more than 8 furlong tho', if memory serves me. This is 10 on Dirt. Tough ask.
 
Aughex said:
Thanks! I think AOB knows why he targeted him for this race ever since he won the St.JP so hopefully he's right and he'll act well on dirt.
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How many horses has AOB targeted and run in the Classic over the years, I wonder?
How many has he won? That one is easy -- None. :)

Okay, Giant's Causeway beaten by a nose or a neck; but Gleneagles is no Giant's. No "iron horse".
Timeform has Gleneagles at 126; I've just looked up Giant's Causeway -- 132.

One thing I think in Gleaneagles favour is that he does have Dirt breeding on his dam side. (Amazingly and so so coincidentally, Gleneagles grand-dam Mariah's Storm was also the dam of Giant's Causeway). :D
 
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icebreaker said:
Aye, the three races that comprised the Triple Crown, and which hadn't been achieved for the previous 37 years. :)
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That treble has nothing to do with the horse ability or adaptability to different trips but more with its physical strength and being capable of performing in top shape for 3 races in less than 2 months. It also depends how weak the 3yo's are in that season.

icebreaker said:
You underestimate American Pharoah at your peril.
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I'm not. I just don't overrate dirt horses/their performances and if a class 5 horse in UK is able to come a nose of winning the BCC(Toast Of New York) then a multiple G1 winner in UK/IRE shouldn't be that far off in the betting. A lesser horse in Declaration Of War went off at 9/2, why is Gleneagles more than 10/1 ? :) Write him off at your peril. I for one am perfectly happy with the big plunge I took at 16/1.
 
Aughex said:
I'm not. I just don't overrate dirt horses/their performances and if a class 5 horse in UK is able to come a nose of winning the BCC(Toast Of New York) then a multiple G1 winner in UK/IRE shouldn't be that far off in the betting. .
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i know most people find speed figures boring ... but anyone that keeps AW figures knows Toast Of New York NY was no class 5 horse..even without speed figures he beat inyourdreams..then an 80 horse by 16 lengths easily..then won a G2 in meydan.

judging a horse just on what class level/number they threw a performance out in doesn't really apply on the AW imo.

through the years many AW UK horses..that have shown themselves to be very good on our AW have gone to the US and won good races..not because they were class 5 horses..but because the AW here is so looked down on people can't accept very good horses have been running for years here without them realising it through the bias against the AW here. Its only now that people are beginning to cotton on to the fact that very good horses are appearing here on the AW due to high profile ones like Jack Hobbs..there have been many through the years that have slipped under the radar..TONY just being one of them
 
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