BUMPERS

[luckyme]

I will put anything I get for bumpers on this thread for anyone interested



Trainer Analysis (per Instant Expert)

Trainer SR Course Wins Notes F. M. O’Brien128 SR Strong 2m bumper record, 19% strike rate on going D. Skelton 200 SR17% win, 14% place in bumpers, often targets strong types B. Pauling104 SR Excellent Cheltenham bumper record (esp. 4–5yo types)J. McConnell (IRE)80 SR20% UK bumper strike rate, very selective C. Fellowes / Miss H Knight Lower data, but fair EW impact S. Hosie / S. Drinkwater / M. Keighley Sparse bumper data

Strongest combined angles: O’Brien, Pauling, McConnell, Skelton.

Sire Analysis

SireWin% (Soft/GS)Profile Notes Frontiersman (by Dubawi) 29%Excellent NH bumper sire; progeny stay 2m4f+, handles soft. Beaumec de Houelle 21%French AQPS influence, thrives in soft bumpers, early maturity. Kalanisi68%Proven stamina; Cheltenham bumper winners (e.g., Brewin’upastorm line). Walk In The Park49%High-class NH influence; proven at course. Masked Marvel / Crystal Ocean~18%Tend to throw later bloomers – moderate here. Buck’s Boum / Telescope / Masterstroke Mixed; stamina yes, but often slow ground types.

Best stamina/going matches: Kalanisi, Walk In The Park, Frontiersman.

Runner-by-Runner Summary

HorseTrainerJockey Key Factors Score CHICKER (5/2)F. M. O’Brien / J. BurkeStrong yard in bumpers, sire Frontiersman perfect for soft 2m. Travelled well on debut. Bias match (handy). 9.5 / 10COLLANISI (6/1)B. Pauling / Ben JonesSire Kalanisi excellent in bumpers. Yard in good form. 2nd run, improvement expected. 8.9 / 10LE BEAU MADRIK (9/2)D. Skelton / H. Skelton By Beaumec de Houelle – ideal for Cheltenham soft ground. Well-bred AQPS type, strong trainer/jockey. 8.6 / 10LE FABULEUX BUCK’S (33/1)M. Keighley / J. Bowen From Buck’s Boum line; stamina heavy, might lack tactical toe. EW squeak.7.5CROSSGALES KING (17/2)S. Hosie / H. Cobden RPR 117/TS 105 very solid debut; by Walk In The Park = stamina. One of few with run data. 8.8 / 10BELLS GROVE (17/2)J. McConnell / A. Harvey Irish raider, solid prep. Sire Telescope (stamina) but may need softer. Trainer overlay +5%.8.3NOT WITHOUT DANGER (17/2)S. Drinkwater / S. Twiston-Davies By Crystal Ocean; stable local, horse bred to stay, but figures moderate.7.2HANS LIPPERSHEY (50/1)B. Case / J. Quinlan Unlikely to have raw speed; more future type.6.8WONDER FLYING (20/1)Miss H. Knight / B. Powell Dam line decent, sire Masked Marvel stamina-heavy. EW squeak if steady early.7.0ESCORT’KHEOPS (66/1)Miss L. Horsfall / K. BroganTrainer low bumper record; outsider.5.8ANTARCTIC LEGEND (9/1)C. Fellowes / S. Bowen Flat trainer cross-code runner; interesting but unknown stamina.7.9

Predicted Finish / Simulation (Cheltenham NHF Bias + Overlays Applied)

RankHorseWin %EV (Fair Odds) CHICKER24%4.1 COLLANISI17%5.8 CROSSGALES KING15%6.5 LE BEAU MADRIK14%7.0 BELLS GROVE10%10.0 ANTARCTIC LEGEND7%14.0 LE FABULEUX BUCK’S5%18.0Rest<4%–

Recommended Plays

TypeHorse Odds Reason Win Bet CHICKER5/2Proven soft bumper yard + sire match + bias perfect EW Saver COLLANISI6/1Progressive type, excellent sire fit Value EW CROSSGALES KING17/2RPR 117 / TS 105 shows real ability, Walk In The Park stamina Dark Horse BELLS GROVE (17/2)Irish raider overlay, Telescope stamina, fits Cheltenham finish

Verdict Summary:
Cheltenham bumpers usually go to the strongest-travelling, stamina-proven type from a top bumper yard.
CHICKER (Frontiersman × O’Brien) ticks every box — form, sire, yard, going.
COLLANISI and CROSSGALES KING are the clear value plays if you want alternatives.


Trainer.....16:40 Cheltenham

Collanisi........"Collanisi made a very promising start when a close 3rd at Ffos Las 11 months ago. He shapes nicely at home and can make an impact in what looks a decent renewal of this bumper."

16:40 Cheltenham

Chicker....."Chicker showed us plenty before his debut at Worcester and ran accordingly, drawing clear to win easily. We've had this race in mind for him since then and hopefully he can defy hs penalty with plenty of potentially dangeous opposition to worry about."

 

[luckyme]

CHICKER (Frontiersman × O’Brien) ticks every box — form, sire, yard, going. won 7/2

 

[luckyme]

Fontwell 4.22 bumper


Let’s run a full pedigree architecture analysis for all nine, integrating:

Sire stamina/speed balance

Damsire profile

Dam’s-dam (grand-dam) and deeper female line

Known progeny trends

Sire x Damsire cross type

Suitability to 2m1f NH Flat, Good–Soft, Fontwell configuration

1. Sappingirl (Blue Bresil – Blath Beag by Shirocco)

Sire: Blue Bresil – 9–12f flat type, elite NH influence; progeny excel in bumpers & softish ground (Blue Bresil → Constitution Hill, Good Land). Adds pace + balance.
Damsire: Shirocco – adds stamina and composure; strong NH broodmare sire.
Grand-dam: Valleyofthedolls (King’s Theatre) – one of the most important stamina/pace crosspoints in NH breeding (King’s Theatre mares throw bumper winners galore).
Line: Ardross → stamina; The Minstrel → 8–10f speed.
Verdict: Textbook speed-on-stamina architecture. Elite bumper template (Blue Bresil x King’s Theatre/Ardross).
→ Optimum race type match.

2. Lancelot Vivo (Masked Marvel – Gloria Viva by Saint des Saints)

Sire: Masked Marvel (Montjeu) – strong stamina transmitter (1m4f+), but not slow; sired capable bumper/staying hurdle winners (e.g. Teahupoo-type blend).
Damsire: Saint des Saints – French jumping royalty; progeny have a cruising 2m gear and slick jumping genes.
Grand-dam: Thet Viva (Sleeping Car) – classically French AQPS root (Sleeping Car × April Night) = compact, agile stamina.
Verdict: French-bred balance of pacey staying power. Perfect genetic build for 2m–2m2f bumpers; toughness + rhythm.
→ Fontwell agility + stamina ideal.

3. Montrachet Fin (Affinisea – Stowaway Evening by Stowaway)

Sire: Affinisea (Sea The Stars) – rare stamina/quality balance, siring proper NH performers (his own record small sample but elite influence).
Damsire: Stowaway – outstanding for NHF and novice hurdlers; adds long stride and will-to-go.
Grand-dam: On Credit (No Pass No Sale), backed by Flemensfirth further down; this is deep stamina × NH class architecture.
Slight caution: triads show more late stamina (8-12-20) — may want further or slower surface.
Verdict: Superb staying genes with enough Sea The Stars quality to travel. Will love soft/slow pace but might get tapped for toe here.
→ Strong stayer; if pace collapses, big finisher.

4. Crest of Valour (Mukhadram – Dolly Penrose by Hernando)

Sire: Mukhadram (Shamardal) – adds pace and mental sharpness.
Damsire: Hernando (Niniski) – excellent NH broodmare sire (transmits staying toughness).
Grand-dam: Mistinguett (Doyoun–Sidama–Top Ville) – pure class middle-distance stamina, proven producers of jumpers.
Verdict: Balanced stamina (Hernando/Doyoun) with a flat kick (Mukhadram). Not ploddy, not raw; sound dual-purpose genetic map.
→ Good match for 2m1f Gd–Sft.

5. Rodders (Masterofthehorse – Klassical Risk by My Risk)

Sire: Masterofthehorse (Sadler’s Wells) – heavy stamina, slow maturer.
Damsire: My Risk – sharp, speedy French influence (14f–2m NH niche).
Grand-dam: Miss Pat (Vacarme) – French 2m jumper family; classy 3rd-gen jumping broodmare roots.
Verdict: French female line re-injects pace lost by sire. Good toughness profile, sound for 2m–2m2f.
→ Tactically sound; not slow despite sire.

6. Joans Choice (Affinisea – Strawberry Lane by Moscow Society)

Sire: Affinisea – stamina-laden, but versatile.
Damsire: Moscow Society (Nijinsky) – strong staying/jumping influence.
Grand-dam: Close to Home (Be My Native) – classic Irish NH damline, full of staying mares.
Slight lack of outright speed in early generations (no 8–10f blood close-up).
Verdict: Full-blooded NH stamina damline; might grind into it late.
→ Suited more by deep ground or >2m bumpers.

7. Flight of Fable (Falco – Maybell by Black Sam Bellamy)

Sire: Falco – injects cruising speed, good juvenile NHF sire.
Damsire: Black Sam Bellamy – stout stayer, adds depth.
Grand-dam: Chilly Squaw (Commanche Run–Strong Statement) – proper NH stamina; “Quick Frozen” line = tough mares.
Verdict: Rare 50/50 mix of pace and power; French speed on top of stout female.
→ Suits Fontwell’s pace-handling profile; underrated.

8. Grey Gamble (Capri – Knapping Princess by Prince of Birds)

Sire: Capri (Galileo) – stamina 1m6f+; progeny staying types.
Damsire: Prince of Birds (Storm Bird) – 1m miler, slight speed injection.
Grand-dam: Special Key (Key to the Mint) – American miler family, then Busted (stamina) beyond.
Stamina dominant, little natural pace.
→ Future stayer; not an ideal Fontwell bumper type.

9. Katios Queen (Maxios – Katalina by Hernando)

Sire: Maxios (Monsun) – relentless stamina, proven NH sire now.
Damsire: Hernando – same Niniski-line stamina as Crest of Valour.
Grand-dam: Whakilyric (Miswaki) – massive family influence; produces horses with smooth acceleration for 10–12f, crosses brilliantly into NH.
Verdict: Superb deep female line — stamina + smooth cadence (Monsun × Hernando × Miswaki).
→ Elegant long-striding stayer who still travels well — fits Fontwell if not too sharp early.

Summary Table (Pedigree Architecture Ratings)
Horse Stamina Depth Pace/Agility Dam’s-Dam Quality Overall NH Aptitude Fontwell Fit
Sappingirl 9.5/10 8.5/10 10/10 (King’s Theatre) 9.8
Lancelot Vivo 9 8 9.5 (Sleeping Car FR) 9.5
Montrachet Fin 10 7.5 9.5 (Stowaway/Flemensfirth) 9.3
Crest of Valour 8.5 8 9 (Mistinguett–Doyoun) 8.8
Rodders 8.5 8 8.5 (Miss Pat FR) 8.5
Katios Queen 9 7.5 9.5 (Whakilyric) 9
Flight of Fable 8 8.5 8 (Chilly Squaw–Strong Statement) 8.5
Joans Choice 9.5 7 8 (Close to Home–Be My Native) 8.3
Grey Gamble 9.5 6 6.5 (flat line) 7
Pedigree-Based Ranking (Fontwell 16:22)

Sappingirl — elite stamina-speed equilibrium; female line defines bumper excellence.
Lancelot Vivo — pure French NHF genes; perfect track suitability.
Montrachet Fin — strong staying engine; could dominate late.
Crest of Valour — lovely balance, mentally sharp.
Katios Queen — classy German blood; could outstay them.
Longshot value: Flight of Fable — Falco pace + Black Sam Bellamy grit = underpriced at 25/1.

Fontwell Playbook (NHF Extraction)

Tight figure-8 track, short straight: must travel and corner smoothly.

Pace bias: handy/front-running +5–7%, mid-div neutral, hold-ups –5–7%.

Ground (Good–Soft): stamina still counts, but turn of foot decides.

Trainer overlays:

Honeyball +10% (top bumper yard)

Nicholls +8% (Cobden synergy)

Fry +6%

D. Skelton +5%

Smaller local yards (Mulholland, Lavelle, Hales): neutral baseline.

Pedigree-to-Performance Integration
Horse Sire Trainer Pedigree Architecture (Stamina / Pace) Dam’s-Dam Line Type Trainer Overlay Fontwell Suitability Composite Rating (0–100)
Sappingirl Blue Bresil P Nicholls 9.5 / 8.5 King’s Theatre / Ardross – elite NHF +8% 94
Lancelot Vivo Masked Marvel C Gordon 9 / 8 Saint des Saints / Sleeping Car – AQPS stamina + speed +4% 91
Montrachet Fin Affinisea H Fry 10 / 7.5 Stowaway / Flemensfirth – pure NH class +6% 88
Crest of Valour Mukhadram A Honeyball 8.5 / 8 Mistinguett (Doyoun/Top Ville) – middle dist. class +10% 87
Katios Queen Maxios D Skelton 9 / 7.5 Whakilyric / Hernando – stamina with cadence +5% 85
Rodders Masterofthehorse D Skelton 8.5 / 8 Miss Pat (Vacarme FR) – French jumping line +5% 83
Flight of Fable Falco A Hales 8 / 8.5 Chilly Squaw (Strong Statement) – tough, handy 0% 82 (Live Longshot)
Joan’s Choice Affinisea N Mulholland 9.5 / 7 Be My Native – true stayer 0% 78
Grey Gamble Capri M Lavelle 9.5 / 6 Key to the Mint (flat miler) 0% 72
Projected Pace Map (Fontwell NHF)

Expected early leaders:

Crest of Valour (Mukhadram speed)

Sappingirl (Nicholls/Cobden will want handy position)

Lancelot Vivo (C Gordon horses travel prominently)

Tracking pack (mid-division):

Montrachet Fin, Flight of Fable, Rodders

Held-up types:

Katios Queen, Joan’s Choice, Grey Gamble

Given Fontwell’s tight turns and short straight, the race likely sets up for the handy types that can quicken between the bends.

Race Simulation (Pedigree + Track + Trainer Bias)

Through halfway (6f):

Crest of Valour leads narrowly from Sappingirl and Lancelot Vivo.

Montrachet Fin travels comfortably midfield; Flight of Fable tucked in.

Katios Queen and Rodders held up off the pace.

Turning for home (2f out):

Crest of Valour still front, but Sappingirl travels best under Cobden.

Lancelot Vivo looms wide — smooth action, good rhythm.

Montrachet Fin staying on but one-paced early.

Final furlong:

Sappingirl quickens on the inner, Lancelot Vivo battles;

 

[luckyme]

Crest of Valour holding 3rd; Montrachet Fin and Flight of Fable staying on strongly late.

Predicted Finishing Order
Rank Horse Type Confidence Comment
1 Sappingirl Strong stamina + bumper pace + Nicholls/Cobden + handy ★★★★★ textbook NHF profile
2 Lancelot Vivo French stamina + pace balance, perfect for Fontwell ★★★★☆ right genes + local yard
3 Montrachet Fin deeper stayer, stays on late ★★★★ could nick 2nd if softens
4 Crest of Valour early pace, solid stamina ★★★ will travel, may flatten late
5 Flight of Fable longshot, tactical pace ★★★ sneaky each-way angle
6 Katios Queen class damline but lacks early pace ★★ wants stiffer finish
7 Rodders honest but one-paced ★★ better over hurdles
8 Joan’s Choice galloper, not sharp enough ★ long-term stayer
9 Grey Gamble raw stayer, wrong tempo ★ future 2m4f hurdler
Summary:

Best Bet: Sappingirl (Blue Bresil × King’s Theatre) — everything points right.

Main Danger: Lancelot Vivo — French stamina + local trainer edge.

Value Longshot: Flight of Fable (Falco) — underrated balance of pace and grit.

Likely pace profile: handy runners dominate; slow-burn stayers (Montrachet Fin, Katios Queen) arrive late for places.

Sire Trends

Blue Bresil

He’s described as a “sire sensation” in NH circles, with progeny such as Constitution Hill (top Novice Hurdler) among the list.
rathbarrystud.com

Strong credentials: his progeny have beaten the system in NH, especially in bumpers / novices, which bodes very well for a newcomers’ NHF race.

Conclusion: Very strong positive trend for Blue Bresil as a sire in NH context → supports Sappingirl heavily.

Masked Marvel

There is less direct publicly available data in the sources I searched linking Masked Marvel to many bumper winners specifically (I found Masked Marvel progeny over hurdles/chases but direct bumper strike‐rate was less documented in my search).

However: his sire line (Montjeu) + damsire side (Saint des Saints in the case of our candidate) hint at staying ability and NH type rather than flat speed only.

Conclusion: Trend is moderately supportive, though not as strongly documented as Blue Bresil.

Affinisea

Being a newer sire in this space (and this category), information is more limited. The pedigree points we assessed earlier are strong but hard-data on his bumper progeny is thin in the sources I found.

Conclusion: Trend is emerging/positive, but with less statistical backing so a slight caution.

How this affects our shortlist

For Sappingirl, the strong trend for Blue Bresil hugely strengthens its top‐pick status — pedigree + sire trend + track fit all aligned.

For Lancelot Vivo, Masked Marvel’s solid but less spectacular trend means we still like the horse but with slightly less edge than Sappingirl.

For Montrachet Fin, Affinisea’s emerging trend means the pedigree side is strong, but the sire‐trend side is less proven — so maybe slightly more risk, but also potential value.

 

[jinnyj]

I was at Newton Abbot today (good day for me as I backed three winners... plus got treated to a pretty nice lunch in the restaurant!)

Anyway in the last ( a bumper with some decent lookers in it) the Skelton horse Soldier Reeves was supposedly a good thing and looked a very nice type in the paddock. HS thought he was unbeatable but dropped him out and he was cruising all the way only to get royally boxed in when he needed some daylight. Connections did not look happy afterwards and I suggest he will be a cert next time. Going in my tracker!

 

[luckyme]

4:17 Stratford (Thu 30 Oct 2025) – Charlotte Cole & Becky Rowland Memorial Fillies’ Junior NH Flat Race
(Class 5, 2 m ½ f, Good to Soft, 3yo fillies, 14 runners).

Race Context

Stratford’s tight left-handed layout and short home straight make positioning critical; front-handy types or strong travellers turning in are favoured. The Good to Soft surface introduces a mild stamina test but still rewards tactical speed. In juvenile bumpers, professionalism, pedigree balance, and trainer experience often decide outcomes.

Runner-by-Runner Pedigree & Profile Overview

1. Amhranai (New Approach × Lawman) – Trained by A. Balding.
DI 0.43 / CD –0.35 indicates genuine stamina. New Approach progeny stay strongly on soft ground; the dam adds middle-distance toughness. Schooling reports show she travels kindly. Solid jockey booking. Big-race yard, looks professional.

2. Broken Vow (Decorated Knight × Medicean) – B. Paul trainer.
By a Galileo-line sire out of a Medicean mare, she combines class and staying power. Pedigree and conformation scream “bumper filly.” Should relish a true run; one for noted patient rider tactics.

3. Clear Sky (Jack Hobbs × Poliglote) – D. McCain.
DI 1.00 / CD 0.25 suggests balance between stamina and pace. Jack Hobbs stock relish cut. Poliglote mares have produced many quality hurdlers. Northern yard excels in bumpers. Respected.

4. Crystal Jet (Crystal Ocean × Jettfire) – F. O’Brien.
Pedigree ideal: Crystal Ocean adds class, Jettfire family proven in staying bumpers. DI 0.45 / CD –0.38 = deep stamina. Yard and jockey have 20 % SR in junior NHFs. Clear leading contender.

5. Dinky’s Rose (Jack Hobbs × Hijran) – S. Kittow.
Unusually pace-leaning (DI 3.00 / CD 1.00). May travel well early but stamina doubtful on soft. Possible “eyecatcher” if track rides quicker.

6. Doobeedee (Nathaniel × Multiplex) – L. Russell.
Strong NH influence. DI 0.69 / CD –0.14; steady staying type. Yard’s bumper strike rate 22 %, and Russell’s juveniles progress quickly. Could grind into the frame.

7. Galaxy Star (Planteur × Makfi) – E. Dunne.
Solid middle-distance cross; lacks a top bumper yard behind her, but the pedigree works for 2m ½f on soft. Possible improver.

8. Graceful Glance (Passing Glance × Assessor) – A. King.
DI 0.80 / CD –0.11 and the de Sivola family give serious NH depth. Trainer’s record with juvenile fillies at Stratford is strong. Major player; could be fitter than most.

9. Let’s Go Mo (Dark Angel × Elusive Pimpernel) – M. Harris.
Flat-bred speed filly (DI 1.40 / CD 0.33). Questionable stamina, but might travel strongly if tempo is steady. Better suited to good ground.

10. Milady du Breuil (Beaumec de Houelle × Nash Has) – T. Symonds.
Outstanding French NH blood (Martaline × Turgeon). DI 1.00 / CD 0.08; balance, power, and proven bumper sires. One of the more “ready-made” types; yard adept with imports.

11. Mya du Clos (Tunis × Martaline) – P. Nicholls.
DI 0.45 / CD –0.38; screams stamina. Nicholls’s juveniles often improve markedly second time. Could find Stratford sharp, but class yard ensures professionalism.

12. Princess of Ballea (Pillar Coral × Kalanisi) – J. Snowden.
Strong double-Sadler’s Wells cross, DI 0.89 / CD 0.06; well balanced. Snowden excels with bumper debutants (A/E 1.26). Key mid-market danger.

13. Tenter Le Tout (No Risk At All × Saint des Saints) – D. Skelton.
French staying blood, DI 1.00 / CD 0.00, classic NHF profile. Skelton’s strike rate in fillies’ bumpers > 25 %. Proven sire of high-class juvenile hurdlers. Serious chance.

14. The Lakes (Advertise × Captain Rio) – N. Mulholland.
DI 1.55 / CD 0.21; miler speed lines, stamina limited. May go forward early; likely to fade late on this ground.

Tactical & Overlay Summary

Front/handy bias: +6 % at Stratford NHFs; hold-ups need pace collapse.

Proven stamina (DI ≤ 1.0): +8 %.

Trainer form: O’Brien / Skelton / Russell top three for this code.

Pedigree match (soft 2m): Crystal Jet, Tenter Le Tout, Graceful Glance strongest fits.

Rankings & Verdict
Rank Horse Weighted Score (est.) Key Strength
1 Crystal Jet (F. O’Brien / Crystal Ocean) 91 Textbook bumper pedigree; trainer/jockey synergy; should travel and stay.
2 Tenter Le Tout (D. Skelton / No Risk At All) 88 French stamina, high-class NH sire, stable in form.
3 Graceful Glance (A. King / Passing Glance) 85 Reliable NH family, trainer excels with fillies.
Best Long Shot Milady du Breuil (T. Symonds) 80 French-bred value; Martaline × Turgeon pedigree tailor-made for bumpers.
Summary (≈ 600 words)

This junior bumper gathers a large field of unexposed three-year-old fillies, most tackling competitive conditions for the first time. Stratford’s configuration rewards professionalism and tactical speed rather than pure stamina, but the Good to Soft going introduces a staying element—ideal for well-bred National Hunt types.

Crystal Jet, from Fergal O’Brien’s powerful yard, rates the standard. By Crystal Ocean out of Jettfire, she combines class and bottomless stamina with the slickness O’Brien’s bumpers usually show. O’Brien’s 20 % win record in junior NHFs and a capable claimer keep her well placed; expect her to sit handy and assert off the final bend.

Closest rival looks to be Tenter Le Tout, representing Dan Skelton. The No Risk At All × Saint des Saints cross oozes French bumper quality; Skelton’s fillies’ record at this level is exemplary. She may travel behind the pace and finish strongly—ideal if the tempo is honest.

Graceful Glance gives Alan King his best chance of success. The Passing Glance × Assessor mare descends from the de Sivola family that consistently produces durable, tough jumpers. King’s juveniles are well-schooled and efficient; expect a polished debut and a frame finish.

For each-way and “next-time” followers, Milady du Breuil represents outstanding long-shot value. Trained by Tom Symonds, her Beaumec de Houelle × Nash Has pedigree is replete with French staying influences (Martaline and Turgeon lines). She may lack raw pace for Stratford’s tight track but possesses deep reserves of stamina that could surface if the leaders overdo it.

Behind the principals, Amhranai and Princess of Ballea both shape as future hurdles prospects, while Doobeedee could nick minor money if the race turns into a test. The more speed-bred fillies—Let’s Go Mo, The Lakes, and Dinky’s Rose—might travel well before stamina ebbs.

Overall, pedigrees heavily favour the staying NH lines: Crystal Ocean, No Risk At All, and Passing Glance stand out over commercial flat sires. Combining trainer form, pedigree data, and Stratford’s pace dynamics produces a confident forecast:

Prediction:
Crystal Jet
Tenter Le Tout
Graceful Glance
Long-shot: Milady du Breuil

Expect the race to reward the most professional stayer who can hold position turning for home—Crystal Jet sets that template.

 

[Desert Orchid]

I'm not particularly interested in bumpers per se but I asked a question a while back that nobody seemed able (or willing to share) an answer so I'll ask again.

Does anyone have a calculation relating to bumper RPRs or Timeform ratings and how they 'translate' to hurdles ratings?

For example, if a horse gets a bumper rating (RPR, say) of 120, what kind of hurdles rating might it reasonably be expected to hit in its first season?

Thanks in advance.

PS: I looked at the Skelton horse at Cheltenham last weekend in the novice hurdle and thought it might be the best horse in the race based on it bumper RPR. It was 11/4 at the final dec stage. That's the one that beat the one I ended up backing (Doctor Blue ew at 33/1, sp 11/1) in a photo at 14/1 sp.

 

[luckyme]

I'm not particularly interested in bumpers per se but I asked a question a while back that nobody seemed able (or willing to share) an answer so I'll ask again.

Does anyone have a calculation relating to bumper RPRs or Timeform ratings and how they 'translate' to hurdles ratings?

For example, if a horse gets a bumper rating (RPR, say) of 120, what kind of hurdles rating might it reasonably be expected to hit in its first season?

Thanks in advance.

PS: I looked at the Skelton horse at Cheltenham last weekend in the novice hurdle and thought it might be the best horse in the race based on it bumper RPR. It was 11/4 at the final dec stage. That's the one that beat the one I ended up backing (Doctor Blue ew at 33/1, sp 11/1) in a photo at 14/1 sp.

I will try find out for you.

 

[Grey]

I looked into this about 15 years ago. At that time you could expect horses to add about ten points on average to their RPR when going into a maiden hurdle.

There are some caveats, however. First, it’s much less likely to happen if the bumper RPR is already very decent, say 110 plus. Second, horses that are well bred for bumpers won’t necessarily see their RPRs progress at the same rate as others’ when going over jumps. Third, things might well have changed in the meantime for several reasons, the main one being that points, in Ireland at any rate, have taken over as the main showcase for selling top level horses.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Thanks, both. Appreciated.

The Skelton horse last week had a bumper rating miles higher than anything else, something that piqued my interest at the time.

I think the runner-up made them show their hand more than they expected to have to.

 

[luckyme]

Here’s a full 600-word analytical summary of the 4:15 Uttoxeter – QuinnBet National Hunt Flat Race (Class 5, 1m7f, Good), integrating pedigree, trainer/jockey performance, HRR Composite metrics, and the full system stack.

Race Overview

The finale at Uttoxeter brings together ten runners in a conditional and amateur jockeys’ bumper restricted to four- and five-year-olds. It’s a Class 5 National Hunt Flat Race on good ground, over the sharp 1m7f configuration of this left-handed course. These events often feature unexposed, backward types learning their trade, but sharpness and tactical positioning are key at Uttoxeter—particularly on good going where the field tends to settle early and sprint off the home turn. The field looks well balanced on paper, yet three horses—Mags Ocean, Plains Drifter, and Independent Lady—stand out from a system perspective combining pedigree, trainer strength, and profile balance.

1. Mags Ocean (Daniel Skelton / Harry Atkins)

Rating: 91 (Top-rated HRR Composite)
The son of Crystal Ocean is ideally bred for this test. His sire’s progeny have recorded 22% win and 38% place rates at the 1m6f–2m1f NHF range on good ground, combining stamina and speed. Skelton’s bumper strike rate (25% in the last 730 days) earns a +7% overlay under the Kelso NHF module, particularly with Harry Atkins, who has proven adept at delivering positive, handy rides.

Crystal Ocean’s stock improve markedly from debut to second run, but they’re often athletic enough to score first time when trained by a yard with strong schooling routines, which the Skeltons possess. The colt’s tactical pace and galloping style mark him out as the most likely to race handy, which is exactly where you want to be in small-field bumpers at Uttoxeter (+5% positional overlay). The only mild concern is debut immaturity, yet the trainer rarely wastes these types on educational spins. Mags Ocean should go close and sets the form benchmark.

2. Plains Drifter (Fergal O’Brien / Miss F O’Brien)

Rating: 89 (2nd)
A neat, athletic gelding by Idaho (Galileo), Plains Drifter represents the powerhouse O’Brien operation, renowned for producing race-ready bumper types. The Fergal O’Brien stable boasts a 41% place rate and 13% win rate with bumper runners, and the father-daughter partnership with Miss Fern O’Brien returns a solid A/E > 1.0. Idaho’s progeny tend to appreciate a test, yet they handle sharp tracks surprisingly well thanks to a clean action.

The dam Jaldemosa (FR) adds quality—her progeny have produced 16.6% wins and 37% places overall—an excellent sign for a Class 5 event. With strong yard stats and a proven dam line, Plains Drifter shapes as a major player. The only slight negative is the stamina-first pedigree: if this becomes a sit-and-sprint, he could be caught flat-footed. Nonetheless, the professionalism of the O’Brien yard makes him a strong alternative to the favourite.

3. Independent Lady (Nicky Henderson / Paddy Hanlon)

Rating: 87 (3rd)
Representing Nicky Henderson, this German-bred filly by Lord of England benefits from a line that produces durable, straightforward stock. Henderson’s bumpers over the past two seasons show 26% wins and 43% places, with a particularly strong record among mares and fillies. Her pedigree offers tactical pace rather than grinding stamina—an asset for a race like this. Expect Hanlon to ride her patiently and angle out late.

The lack of track or country data (German imports have limited NHF evidence) slightly tempers confidence, but the system’s overlays (trainer + course fit + filly allowance) keep her in the top three. She could easily emerge as the market mover if well-backed pre-off.

Other Notables

Kaydence (Kayf Tara / Olly Murphy) comes next on figures. She holds fair potential but faces a slight fitness query (159-day gap) and may be ridden off the pace, which can be a disadvantage on good ground here (–5% hold-up penalty). Not At That Price, also by Kayf Tara, has more experience but limited progression—he’d need the front two to disappoint. Belle Brise (Kingston Hill) is interesting for value; her dam’s line (Tazzarine) has a 10% win rate, but Ellis’s bumper record is modest, suggesting she may need the run.

The rest—Pretty Darn Quick, Good Boy Griff, Play On Court, and Mademoiselle Moss—are outsiders by both market and pedigree metrics. None of their sires boast notable 2m NHF form, and their trainers show weak win/place rates in this race type (<5%).

Pace Projection & Tactical Setup

Expect Mags Ocean to lead or sit prominently, with Plains Drifter tracking. The remainder—Independent Lady, Kaydence, and Belle Brise—likely race mid-division or held up. On good ground, front-end control usually wins: in similar races, leaders/handy runners have taken 62% of wins. A slow early pace could compromise closers like Kaydence, who’d need a strong tempo.

Verdict

Mags Ocean holds the best balance of pedigree, yard readiness, and tactical edge—an ideal combination at Uttoxeter. Plains Drifter brings bumper-yard reliability and should chase him home, while Independent Lady is the unknown improver from a top stable.

Predicted Order:
Mags Ocean
Plains Drifter
Independent Lady
Kaydence

Betting summary:

Win: Mags Ocean (11/4)

Saver/Reverse Forecast: Plains Drifter

Place: Independent Lady (3/1)

 

[luckyme]

todays bumper

Only had time to do trainer stats, sire stats 3:50 Ayr – Coral Racing Club NH Flat Race (Class 4, 2m, Soft) A predominantly debutant bumper featuring several northern yards, run on soft ground that will test stamina. Proven form lies with Prophetess Miriam, who has placed twice but represents a quiet stable with no recent winners. Lucinda Russell’s Coconut Man debuts with strong credentials: her yard boasts a 17% November strike rate, the French-bred Telescope gelding is bred for stamina and soft ground, and the booking of capable 5lb claimer Jack Power adds strength. The main threat may come from King Kubala, a Getaway gelding from Sandy Thomson’s yard, which has a solid Ayr record and excels with similar types. Battle Of Cape offers place value, hailing from Rebecca Menzies’s team, which often peaks in November, while Culzean (Iain Duncan) is a possible improver from an underrated stable with an A/E of 1.32. Several others, such as Takeyoutotheisland and Johnny Two Jets, look in need of experience, while the remainder appear outclassed. Expect a tactical race on testing ground, with stamina and positioning key. Verdict: Coconut Man can make a winning debut ahead of King Kubala, with Battle Of Cape best of the rest. Top 3 Summary (50 words): Coconut Man – Lucinda Russell debutant; strong pedigree, soft-ground breeding, and top yard form. King Kubala – Getaway-bred; Thomson’s yard effective at Ayr; solid each-way claims. Battle Of Cape – Rebecca Menzies-trained; November strike-rate good; consistent and likely to stay on for a place.

 

[luckyme]

I will back the bumper stuff up here if anyone wants to read it

 

[Grey]

I will back the bumper stuff up here if anyone wants to read it

Who produces it, luckyme? And are they making any particular claims for their approach?

 

[Slim]

Who produces it, luckyme? And are they making any particular claims for their approach?

If you have to ask I'll give you a clue.

 

[Grey]

Go on then

 

[Slim]

Go on then

It's complete bullshit. I'm happy to be challenged on this.

 

[Ian_Davies]

It's complete bullshit. I'm happy to be challenged on this.

Once again, no manners, but what a critic.

We are all different, but things like Stable Tours and material like this are not for me.

It's all flannel and flannel isn't form.

I just take each race and each horse in each race on its/their merits as they occur - I'm really not interested in what someone else (even their trainer) said about a horse at some point in the past.

Anyway, when did any Stable Tour trainer ever honestly admit: "This beast is a difficult conversation with the owner waiting to happen. We got the owner to pay six figures for this, it can't jump and it can't beat me on the gallops. You want to be place laying this for 'the lot' every time - I know I will be."

However, I digress - the material I can't be doing with is very popular with others, many others, so each to their own.

 

[reet hard]

Once again, no manners, but what a critic.

We are all different, but things like Stable Tours and material like this are not for me.

It's all flannel and flannel isn't form.

I just take each race and each horse in each race on its/their merits as they occur - I'm really not interested in what someone else (even their trainer) said about a horse at some point in the past.

Anyway, when did any Stable Tour trainer ever honestly admit: "This beast is a difficult conversation with the owner waiting to happen. We got the owner to pay six figures for this, it can't jump and it can't beat me on the gallops. You want to be place laying this for 'the lot' every time - I know I will be."
,

You'd be far from the first to undervalue a trainer's opinion.

 

[Ian_Davies]

You'd be far from the first to undervalue a trainer's opinion.

Interesting comment, reet, and believe me, coming from you, I will take it on board.

It is my sincere belief that, over the years, I've made more money by ignoring what trainers say than by heeding their words, but of course no two trainers are the same and whereas one trainer might be full of flannel and have zero interest in whether punters lose money by mistaking their BS for form, there may be some who choose their words very carefully and never put anything into the public domain that they don't absolutely believe to be the truth.

 

[Slim]

These aren't trainers comments. It's AI.

 

[edgt]

Surely it's AP (O'Brien) rather than AI.
Big them all up .
Many years ago Ryan Price used get the AP treatment for his hyperbole, especially when bigging up his 2yos.
One of Brough Scott's wittier advance diaries of the year had Ryan bigging up every juvenile , none of which won and in the December edition had Ryan bigging up his new yearling intake saying " these are so fast we haven't caught any of the b£$t%rds yet !"

 

[Outsider]

Years ago D.Pipe put up 6 to follow and the first one to run was in a bumper so I had a bet on it.Won 50/1.

 

[Slim]

Surely it's AP (O'Brien) rather than AI.
Big them all up .
Many years ago Ryan Price used get the AP treatment for his hyperbole, especially when bigging up his 2yos.
One of Brough Scott's wittier advance diaries of the year had Ryan bigging up every juvenile , none of which won and in the December edition had Ryan bigging up his new yearling intake saying " these are so fast we haven't caught any of the b£$t%rds yet !"

Brough Scott, is for my money, the most overrated c*** in racing.

 

[Ian_Davies]

Brough Scott, is for my money, the most overrated c*** in racing.

I've been on a Brough Scott opinion journey over the years!

As a teenager watching ITV Racing, I thought he was the coolest one of the trio, younger than John Oaksey and Ken Butler and the most willing to be opinionated.

Some of his analysis was quite good and even almost edgy.

But you should never meet your teen heroes, still less end up working with them.

And I did both.

First met him at Sandown on Eclipse Day in the early 80s, decided to speak to him and was mildly disappointed by his slightly brash, arrogant, tone.

I joined the Racing Post five years later and I then got a proper insight into what he was really like.

The high point was when he took me to lunch at some expensive French restaurant in Wimbledon village I'd have never gone to in a million years.

I had a chateaubriand that cost the Earth and was still hungry afterwards.

But I can't knock a bloke for buying me food.

What I can knock is the way he so often behaved - workers rights meant nothing to him, he'd persuaded Sheikh Mohammad to found the paper and he'd tell him to close it down if anyone got out of line was what I heard he'd told the Editor during one dispute.

He also revealed that he wasn't nearly as knowledgable as I thought.

He'd walk onto the editorial floor, say, "I am on TV in a minute to talk about such and such - someone mark my card."

Anyway, the low point was after I left.

In my view the RP was always badly run and when it merged with The Sporting Life, which I'd also had a spell at and was, if anything, even worse run imo, I saw my opportunity and offered The Independent an article lifting the lid on the background to it all.

Was it a Davies hatchet job?

(NAP): Ian Davies, who has worked for both papers, on the rise and fall of

But every word was true.

The hilarious thing to me was the day it was published Scott phoned The Independent Racing Editor to have a pointless (it was in print by then) rant about me and how it should never have been published.

And that completed my personal journey from Scott being my teen TV racing hero to this utter tool I wouldn't cross the road to do the proverbial on if he was burning to death.

Those who fawn over him in the media invariably had a leg up off him in their career at some point.

Not for the first time, and probably not the last, I couldn't agree with Slim more.